MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Tuesday, 7/18 – Revenge of the Pitchers!

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Tuesday 7/18

Welcome back to this Tuesday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

After a much needed day off yesterday, I’m back for tonight’s 15-game main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings. With 30 pitchers available on today’s slate, I’ve narrowed it down to eight (more than usual, I know) that I am considering for my cash games and GPPs.

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

After a few slates in a row that were just dominated by hitters, we actually had one last night where there were multiple good pitching performances. I think tonight we will see a combination of both as there are a number of good pitchers taking the bump and a number of good offenses facing pretty bad pitchers.

Every day is a new day and in DFS, and we are presented with a new challenge – to try to find the right combination of pitchers and hitters to get that winning score. I look at it like trying to solve a Sudoku puzzle or a Rubix cube.

In order to bring you my picks in a more timely fashion today, I am going to jump right into my top spend up without listing all 15 match-ups.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Cash Game Ace(s)

Justin Verlander (12k FD, 11.9k DK) @ Cincinnati

Verlander is coming off a season-high 15 strikeout performance against Milwaukee and got a pretty hefty price hike making him the most expensive pitcher on the slate. He faces a Reds team that carries a 25% K rate tonight, meaning he’s got like 7-8 strikeouts built into this match-up.

The question is really do you want to pay all the way up to Verlander in your cash games when there are other solid pitchers for a good bit less? Well, if you can find the cheap bats to make him fit, then I certainly say just pay for him.

It’s hard to gauge ownership this early in the day, but he should be popular based on his name and his game log. If he pitches a gem at high ownership and your pivot busts, you’re in trouble.

He does come with some risk, however, as JV is giving up a lot of long balls this year and fly ball pitchers like Verlander make me nervous in Cincy. If you’re not dead set on JV, then there is another pretty safe spot you can pivot to in cash games.

Jack Flaherty (8k FD, 8.7k DK) vs. Miami

Flaherty has had a sub-par season by his standards. He emerged as the Cardinals best young arm last year and expectations were high coming into this year that he could lead this staff and dominate.

His game log looks like a roller coaster as he’s had some solid outings followed by bad ones and he really just hasn’t shown any consistency this season. He’s not been able to work deep into games because he’s throwing too many pitches and walking too many hitters.

So why should you play Mr. Inconsistency in cash? Because he’s way too cheap for his match-up and talent. Yes, we are going to pick on Miami today. Sometimes it’s lazy just to roll out starters against bad offenses, but in this case, we have a talented pitcher that is badly under-priced in the best match-up on the slate.

Miami has the second lowest implied total on the slate and underwhelming offensive numbers across the board. Flaherty is a -200 favorite and if Dakota Hudson and Miles Mikolas can put up quality starts against Miami, then I expect Flaherty to do the same.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: GPP Pivots

Brandon Woodruff (9.3k both sites) @ San Diego

If you’ve been reading this column for a while,  you would have seen this pick coming. I love Woodruff and I love picking on the Padres with righties. Those two things line up perfectly with this pick tonight. Woodruff got a pretty significant price hike on DK (finally!) which should help keep him from being too chalky, and I will absolutely pay up for him.

Woody bring his 29% K rate into this match-up with the Padres and their slate high 26% whiff rate. That’s a recipe for some strikeouts if you ask me. He also gets a small park boost here on the road away from homer-friendly Miller Park. I am pulling the trigger on him in GPPs without hesitation and I hope I can get him at low ownership.

Cole Hamels (10.5k DK, 8.6k FD) vs. Chicago White Sox

So apparently FanDuel didn’t get the memo that Hamels is absolutely on fire and facing a White Sox team with a 25% K rate. Hamels is nearly 2k less on FanDuel than DK which could lead to him being really popular, but I still love him in this spot.

Hamels is in the middle of a really impressive stretch in which he has tossed 22 consecutive scoreless innings. Two of those starts came against the Cardinals and the other one was against the Rockies – in Coors! He’s flashed some nice K upside, too, fanning 23 hitters during that stretch.

He’s a -220 favorite today at home against the other Chicago team that will lose their DH today. Fire him up in GPPs and toss him in a DK lineup even if he is a tad overpriced.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Mid-Tier Options

Merrill Kelly (8.3k FD, 8k DK) vs. Colorado

Man, I am becoming a Merrill Kelly truther. This guy has done nothing but pitch well over his last three starts and the sites refuse to budge on his salary. He’s allowed just two earned runs over his last 22 innings while piling up 18 strikeouts.

I’ve mentioned this before, but he’s not a conventional rookie, he’s a 30-year-old pitcher who spent 5 years pitching in Korea before coming back to the states. He’s showing some real savvy with the way that he’s mixing his pitches and he’s not just a hard thrower or a guy that relies on a big breaking ball.

I love picking on the Rockies outside of Coors and recency bias is on my side tonight as people are going to keep playing Colorado after their huge offensive outburst this weekend.

Kelly faced them once already back in Coors and had held them in check for only one run over six innings before giving up three more in the seventh. No one is going to play him tonight, but I will. The price is nice and the match-up is better than people realize.

Jordan Yamamoto (7.5k FD, 8.3k DK) @ St. Louis

Going back to the same pitcher in the same match-up a week later? Yes, I am going to do it. These two teams just faced off last week and we saw Miles Mikolas bounce back to shut out the Marlins last night and Marlins’ youngster Elieser Hernandez pitch well again, too.

I think the “don’t play a pitcher against a team they just faced” narrative gets played up a little too much. Sure, big league hitters adapt, but if the pitcher has good stuff and locates it where they want to then they’ll still have an advantage over the offense.

Yamamoto was very impressive in his big league debut, limiting the Cardinals to just three hits and two walks over seven scoreless innings. That was a massive 46 FD point performance and yet he’s still priced at only 7.5k.

The Cardinals continue to slump offensively and I have no problem picking on them with good young pitchers, particularly right-handers until they show us that they should be respected.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Cheap Arms/SP2s

Homer Bailey (6.8k FD, 6.7k DK) @ Seattle

Is it Homer Bailey day? Yes, I think it is and I know that is scary, but bear with me. Bailey comes into tonight’s match-up with Seattle in good form, pitching back-to-back six-inning quality starts against the White Sox and Tigers.

While those teams are not offensive juggernauts I admit, it’s still a really good sign that Bailey has recaptured some of his early season form. His overall numbers are still pretty mediocre, but the match-up here is what I’m targeting.

Seattle is an offense that continues to strike out a high rate (24.9% – third highest on the slate). With Jay Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion gone, they are lacking in power and are a lot less scary for opposing pitchers who have home run issues (i.e. Bailey).

Homer’s price is nice and he’s my favorite cheap option tonight if you want to smash in some high priced hitters and stacks. It’s a high risk/high reward play, but I think Homer has another good outing in him tonight!

Mitch Keller (5.5k FD, 6.9k DK) vs. Detroit

Ok, I said I wouldn’t do this, but I feel like I have to at least mention that Mitch Keller is in play tonight. I have recommended him in both of his first two MLB starts only to watch him give up 6 earned runs in each of those games to the Braves and Reds.

Why is tonight any different? Well, he’s facing the Detroit Tigers, one of the weakest offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching. The Tigers will lose their DH and Keller has a positive park factor in his favor as PNC Park has one of the most spacious left and center fields in baseball.

Remember, this kid is an elite prospect who might be getting his last chance in several months to show out. He throws 97-98 with a good slider to compliment his fastball. He’s been victimized by a high BABIP of .615 and some self-inflicted wounds from walks. He’s a deep GPP flyer, but still worthy of consideration tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not. Today, we have some options with paying all the way up for Verlander or trying to save 4k by going to Flaherty.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Woodruff-Flaherty, while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Kelly-Bailey as two cheap guys who have a ton of upside and will probably be low owned.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.

Cash Rankings

1. Verlander
2. Flaherty
3. Hamels
4. Woodruff

GPP Rankings

1. Woodruff
2. Hamels
3. Kelly
4. Bailey

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck