NBA Draft 2019: 5 most overrated prospects

ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - MARCH 30: Rui Hachimura #21 and Brandon Clarke #15 of the Gonzaga Bulldogs celebrate after a play against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during the second half of the 2019 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament West Regional at Honda Center on March 30, 2019 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images) /

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AUSTIN, TEXAS – MARCH 02: Jaxson Hayes #10 of the Texas Longhorns defends Talen Horton-Tucker #11 of the Iowa State Cyclones at The Frank Erwin Center on March 02, 2019 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Chris Covatta/Getty Images) /

2. Jaxson Hayes, Texas

Following in the footsteps of Jarrett Allen (2016-17) and Mo Bamba (2017-18), Jaxson Hayes was the latest athletic, rim-running center to lace up his shoes for the Texas Longhorns in the Shaka Smart era. Unlike his two predecessors, Hayes was a four-star recruit and didn’t have a lot of hype and anticipation surrounding his early impact at Austin.

Hayes was a bit of a late bloomer — he was just six feet tall as a freshman in high school, but by the time he graduated he had reached 6-foot-11. He came into Texas rough around the edges and it took some time before he became a starter for the Longhorns (he started 21 out of 32 games played as a freshman). His numbers weren’t spectacular either as he averaged 10 points per game, 5 rebounds per game, and 2.2 blocks per game in 23.3 minutes per game.

Yet, he’s an advanced stats darling. He had a true shooting percentage of 73.9 percent and a Box Plus-Minus of 12.1 points added over 100 possessions. When things were clicking for Hayes, Texas looked like a completely different team (see wins over North Carolina and Purdue) and the analytics backed that up. Given how Allen has turned out in Brooklyn, some team might look at Hayes and his advanced stats and see a player they could plug in as their center for the next decade or longer.

However, Hayes’ game is based entirely on his athleticism at the moment. Creating his own shot is not a strength as he doesn’t have great feel or touch in the post. While an extraordinary leaper with a great wingspan (7-foot-4), he isn’t a great rebounder as he often allows the defense to get him off his spot under the basket. There’s talent there and the right team could unearth it, but Bamba was taken fifth overall last year and Allen stayed on the board until the 18th pick in 2016. As is, he’s not better than either but is projected to be taken somewhere between those two slots.

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