MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – June 19 – The Polar Express

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate was a good one for Picks and Pivots as we stayed with our core of a Justin Verlander and Jacob deGrom build which due to weather and opponent concerns saw Jake at under 5% ownership and he delivered with the best pitching performance of the night with 10 K’s and 35 fantasy points. Meanwhile a basically un-owned New York Mets stack erupted for 10 runs as Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil both had 30+ fantasy point nights at the top of the NY order.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching:

We have a five game Early Slate on Wednesday with some elite pitching, some high Vegas totals and hopefully a Nationals-Phillies game that will actually play after two straight rain outs. With a small slate like this, ownership will be condensed and while you can certainly play game theory, I actually think this slate is straight forward enough where you just play the top talent and let the chips fall where they may.

That all starts with Gerrit Cole ($22K), the top K arm on the slate with a 38.8% K rate and 16.2% swinging strike rate and leads of all baseball the last month with a 39.8% K rate. When I mentioned simply playing the best plays – this is what I meant – an arm with double-digit K’s and 30+ fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 starts and the highest ceiling of any arm in action this afternoon.

Blake Snell ($18.5K) is very much like Jacob deGrom was last night – an elite K arm who has seen his price drop down and gets a brutal match-up on paper with a healthy Yankee line-up. Now I certainly do not expect single digit ownership due to the fact this is a 5 game slate, but my guess is that a cheaper Patrick Corbin or a massive favorite like Chris Bassitt will be the safer SP2 choice to pair with Cole today.

Snell steps to the mound with a 33.3% K rate on the year and a slate high 18.2% swinging strike rate and while there is obvious risk in Yankee stadium with Stanton and E5 now in the heart of this Yankee line-up, I am simply betting on the talent of Snell which possesses K upside no other SP2 has here today. Snell has had two strong outings against the Yankees already this season with 9 and 12 K’s and 25 and 29 fantasy points but that was before we got Stanton and Encarnacion inserted back into the Bronx Bombers lineup.

On paper the safer SP2 choice is probably Corbin – a high K arm at a discount – much like Brandon Woodruff was last night. Sometimes you simply bet on the pedigree of the arm and roll the dice and on a small slate like this – if Cole and Snell are on, you are going to have a pitching duo that could set the cash line on their own.

MLB DFS – Early Slate Stack:

The early slate offense if you simply listen to Vegas is pretty easy to isolate as the Oakland A’s are the only team with an IRT over 5 and lead the entire day of baseball with a 6+ run total as they face Orioles RHP Jimmy Yacabonis as the opener before LHP Josh Rogers takes over the bulk work behind him.

Part of the reason I am in favor of going Cole/Snell here tonight is that you can go all-in with a 6 man Oakland stack on FantasyDraft at price points that allow you the salary flexibility to pay up for both arms – so why exactly do I need to get cute?

The one tricky part here will be which 6 Oakland bats do you go with – with a lefty expected to get the bulk innings we can certainly make the argument for the platoon guys like Chad Pinder and Mark Canha but we have a right-handed opener and let’s be honest – are we really expecting Rogers to go that deep into the game where we have to play the platoon splits here?

Playing it straight seems like the safest and most direct route to fantasy points – so the usual suspects – Marcus Semien, Matt Olson, Khris Davis, Matt Chapman and Stephen Piscotty – and if we get Josh Phegley in the 9 spot, I love the idea of a 6 man wrap-around stack as Phegley hammers lefties (.216 ISO since the start of 2018) and it becomes a great way to differentiate a chalky stack.

You want to stack the top two arms and an A’s six man – well you are going to need value and we have one of my favorite #FreeSquare plays with Chris Davis ($4.1K). Opposing pitcher Chris Bassitt, is giving up a .236 ISO to LHB this season and his primary pitch to lefties, the sinker, is one that Davis hammers historically – with a .289 ISO and 46% HC rate. At this price – lock him in as your one-off and it will unlock all the salary you need to get the building blocks you want.

MLB DFS – Early Slate Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build: 

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

SP: Gerrit Cole

SP: Blake Snell

IF: Marcus Semien

IF: Matt Chapman

IF: Josh Phegley

OF: Khris Davis

OF: Matt Olson

OF: Stephen Piscotty

UTIL: Chris Davis

UTIL: Willy Adames ($7K left)

Slate Overview: At first glance, I think there is a clear and direct path to attacking this early slate as the Oakland bats are cheap enough, especially with a Chris Davis one-off that you really can do whatever you want with your roster.

Paying up for Cole and Snell really becomes an easy build and while there is always risk, I am going to side with elite K arms every time in MLB DFS and we have that here today.

Keep an eye on the lineup, especially Oakland, to see how they play this R/L opener that the Orioles throws at them – but with a terrible bullpen in Baltimore, frankly I am not super worried about any arm that takes the hill against Oakland today.

MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching:

The Main Slate looks like a messy one, with rain issues in Chicago (on Jon Lester Day no less) and with in St. Louis for the Cardinals and Marlins. We also have some potential for rain in Washington (oh boy) and uncertainty around if Max Scherzer will start after breaking his nose in BP or if it will be call-up Austin Voth as many are reporting.

If you opened up this slate early and saw Mad Max and Lucas Giolito, you probably felt good about the top end pitching but with Max seemingly likely to get his start skipped and constant rain concern in Chicago – it could knock out both top K arms on the slate.

What this all likely leads to is Andrew Heaney ($16.4K) becoming a far too cheap SP1 with his 34% K rate in an exploitable match-up against a Toronto line-up without Justin Smoak and a 26% plus K rate in the projected line-up. Heaney has struck out 8, 10 and 10 in three of his first starts this season with two of them coming against Seattle and with the Jays banged up offensively, you are likely going to get 6-7 high K hitters in this line-up which adds a considerable ceiling to Heaney who seems like the clear top point per dollar option.

If Max/Giolito are both out of play and with Heaney locked in as my SP1, there is no real priority play at SP2 – so my likely course of action is to work backwards with the bats and simply back into my SP2 choice based off the salary range I find myself in.

Steven Matz ($14K) is the one cheap arm I have interest in and believe me, this is not my Mets homer-ism carrying over from last night, there is real upside here with Matz that most likely won’t bother with. Over the last month, Matz has a 25.8% K rate, a top 25 mark in all of baseball and he has already performed well against the Braves team in Atlanta back in April with 6 innings of 2 run ball with 8 K’s and 25 fantasy points.

With the Mets bullpen simply killing this team nightly, Mickey Callaway is leaning on his starting staff for length every single time out and we saw this last night with deGrom. Matz has been no different, throwing 113 and 120 pitches in his last two starts and going 6 innings in each of his last five starts which gives him the ability to rack up fantasy points and help you grab the 4 points for a win which would be huge at this price point.

MLB DFS – Main Slate Bats:

There are a ton of good offenses on this slate but how on Earth do I not just lock right into a cheap Dodgers stack against LHP Drew Pomeranz – a pitcher with a 5+ xFIP since 2018 who is giving up a .245 ISO to RHB.

You guys know the drill by now when a bad lefty faces the Dodgers – you load up on the right-handed value – Enrique Hernandez, Chris Taylor, Justin Turner and David Freese and ALWAYS run it back with the L/L bats of Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy who have .203 and .270 ISO marks against LHP since 2018.

Now Pomeranz has two straight strong starts and trolled us the last time we tried this as he spun 5 shutout innings and 7 K’s – but sorry I am not buying this sudden resurgence and will instead build around my favorite stack against left-handed arms.

After last night’s outburst, I am sure the Mets and specifically Pete Alonso will be popular but with the pace he is on right now, I just cannot see fading him. Alonso will face off with LHP Max Fried and his numbers against lefties are just silly for a rookie – a .477 ISO, 49% fly ball rate with a 60% HC rate and only an 8% soft contact rate and an average exit velocity of 96 MPH. The Polar Bear just continues to make adjustments to Major League pitching and is on pace to shatter rookie records – just play him.

The other one-off play here tonight I am locking in on is Nelson Cruz as the Twins get a lefty in Eduardo Rodriguez and Cruz has Alonso like numbers against southpaws – both historically but even more so in 2019. Cruz has a .459 ISO mark with an 80 – yes EIGHTY – percent hard contact rate and a 97.7 MPH exit velocity.

The Dodgers cheap 6 man stack gives you the ability here tonight to plug-in two of these elite power bats as one-offs with the splits/platoon on their side here tonight!

MLB DFS – Main Slate Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be considered a plug and play build. 

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

SP: Andrew Heaney

SP: Steven Matz

IF: Max Muncy

IF: David Freese

IF: Justin Turner

OF: Cody Bellinger

OF: Kike’ Hernandez

OF: Chris Taylor

UTIL: Pete Alonso

UTIL: Nelson Cruz

Slate Overview: This Main Slate looks like it will be a chalky Andrew Heaney as the SP1 with Max/Giolito potentially out of play which also means people will have the salary to spend for bats and that is where I think you have to hit tonight.

Bats are going to win you this slate and you need an SP2 who can “get you there” – I don’t see Rich Hill breaking this slate so just playing a solid arm like Steven Matz gives you a path around your bats to help you deliver a strong night.

Enjoy these split slates guys and make sure you get into another $400 FREE ROLL from our friends at FantasyDraft tonight!

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest MLB DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings each and every day!