The 5 biggest questions heading into the 2019 NBA Draft

Draft day is upon us, and the 2019 NBA Draft promises to be supreme chaos, which is really all we can ask for.

Here are our biggest questions heading toward tonight’s draft.

1. Who trades up to No. 4 to increase the Pelicans’ Anthony Davis bounty?

We’ve heard everyone from the Celtics, Timberwolves and Bulls to the Hawks or potentially the Suns may be interested in trading up to the fourth slot to secure the player of their choice slightly ahead of their current draft slot. Those are all teams already in the lottery, though. With so much up in the air, it would be surprising to see Chicago or Phoenix give up a valuable future asset (remember it cost the Mavericks this year’s first-round pick to move up two slots in 2018) when they may be able to get their guy by sitting at their current spot. Boston and Atlanta make slightly more sense as each has multiple picks in the first round.

Minnesota, on the other hand, is a complete wildcard. Many assume they will find their power forward of the future in this class, with players like Brandon Clarke, P.J. Washington, Sekou Doumbouya and Nassir Little likely all available when they pick at No. 11. But with two maxed-out young players on their roster and a new President of Basketball Operations in Gersson Rosas, perhaps the Timberwolves move out ahead of the pack to jump-start their rebuild. Darius Garland is a fascinating fit, and Rosas surely knows from his time in Houston the godsend an undervalued lead creator can be, having helped negotiate the James Harden trade.

Don’t count out Phoenix, either. Jarrett Culver has been working out close to the Suns’ facility throughout the pre-draft process, and the Suns took the uncommon step of traveling to the Texas Tech campus in Lubbock, Texas, to meet with Culver and his coaches.

There will also likely be an unexpected name that pops up tonight. Remember this?

If a team smells blood in the water, they’re going to charge ahead and take advantage. A draft class perceived as “weak” is ripe for a lopsided trade in which a team with a sense of purpose chasing a specific player can move up, potentially without giving up quite as much as usual. If the Pelicans really don’t want to make this pick, the later we get in the evening, the lower their demands may become, bringing unexpected trade partners out of the woodwork.

2. What is the Celtics’ plan from here?

Boston’s failed high-wire act following the Nets trade reached the end of its first stage this week as rumors solidified that Kyrie Irving would join Brooklyn (a sad twist of irony) and Al Horford would decline his player option for 2019-20 and become an unrestricted free agent with plans to leave the Celtics. It was the unfortunate but logical response to the Celtics’ failed attempt to trade for Davis. The next stage is to see what comes of the young group they accumulated using Brooklyn’s picks.

A championship is further away than Danny Ainge and Co. ever expected when they signed Horford and Gordon Hayward and traded for Irving. We may look back in a few years at the Hayward injury on opening night 2017 as a turning point for this post-Warriors dynasty era of the league. That doesn’t take away from the fact the Celtics still have one of the best young cores in the league. The NBA is dominated by two-way wings, and the Celtics have two in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, as well as Hayward entering the final year of his contract. It won’t be hard with those two pieces locked in to put a winning group around them.

Armed with an unprotected 2020 Grizzlies first-round pick, Boston is also in an awesome position to keep building. Losing Irving and Horford hurts, but with the 14th, 20th and 22nd picks plus Hayward and Marcus Smart, the Celtics can make moves.

Adrian Wojnarowski has said repeatedly that the Celtics do not intend to bring three rookies onto the roster next season, meaning they can either solidify their picks to move up, package them for a veteran contributor, or kick the can down the road by trading back or out of the first-round. With Mike Conley now in Utah and Davis in Los Angeles, there aren’t many clear options. Unless Bradley Beal becomes suddenly more available or Boston talks itself into Kevin Love (unlikely), no star players appear imminently available.

The best bet is that they move up for another perimeter player such as Culver or Garland and get to reconstructing the roster with what’s left. Brown is extension-eligible this fall, but regardless of where his potential new deal lands, Boston will have around $25 million in cap space next summer. Bring one more young guy into the rotation, see what happens this season, and jump back in next year.

3. How much does the Raptors’ roster impact how teams approach this draft?

On the Woj Pod this week, ESPN draft analyst Mike Schmitz said he has heard Fred VanVleet’s story referenced often during Toronto’s playoff run as one teams see as a possible market inefficiency. Basically, it’s a competition to get the competitive guy who was productive in college but falls through the cracks because of injury or athletic limitations.

Many fall into that category, from Grant Williams to Ty Jerome to Nic Claxton. The worry would be that less thoughtful teams might instead just focus on undersized playmakers or mid-major standouts rather than identifying what really makes VanVleet special: the confidence to take and make tough end-of-clock shots possession after possession on the biggest stage, to play through a gross injury, and to work hard enough in the first place to even be in the league after not being drafted.

The other Raptor whose name you’ll hear a lot the next few days is Pascal Siakam. Like Draymond Green or Kevin Durant before him, Siakam is the latest unfair comparison who will be thrust onto (mostly international) prospects who can playmake and defend multiple positions from the forward spot.

The quickness and handle that Siakam possesses, as well as his relentless hustle, make it an impossible comparison to live up to. Siakam may be an All-NBA player by next season if he maintains his current astounding level of improvement, which saw him post a 62.8 true shooting percentage this year on a 20.8 percent usage rate. As he takes on more of an offensive burden and improves as a shooter, he will only get better.

Sekou Doumbouya of France is already getting thrown in the Siakam conversation because of his eerily similar height, weight and wingspan, as well as Doumbouya’s ball-handling and finishing ability in the open court. However, Doumbouya’s ability to handle and make plays in traffic leaves much to be desired and while his explosiveness as a leaper may be better than Siakam’s, he is not as quick.

Again, this misses the point of what makes Siakam special. Rather than finding international guys who look the same as Siakam, evaluators should be looking for undervalued prospects with elite skill and feel for the game who they expect to continue to grow as players. The next Siakam is less likely to be Doumbouya than someone like Chuma Okeke or Talen Horton-Tucker, statistical darlings with high-level basketball intelligence.

4. Where does Bol Bol go?

No one prospect has as much variance as Bol from one analyst to the next. He could as high as the top 10 or fall out of the first round, and he feels like the type of guy whose exact off-court scouting report will only come out after the draft. Not only does Bol enter the league coming off a foot injury, but his frail 7-foot-3 frame is just tough to buy into as a real starting-caliber NBA player. He also reportedly has drawn questions over his work ethic in the past, likely in part because of his physical advantages at lower levels.

It’s easy to say Bol should go to a “smart” franchise with a knack for player development like Boston, Brooklyn, San Antonio or even Philadelphia, but at the same time, rebuilding teams have more to gain by taking a chance. Expect young teams with multiple picks to give Bol a long look, including Atlanta, Memphis and Cleveland.

5. How much salary relief does a first-round pick buy teams?

Typically over the past few seasons, one first-round pick has roughly equated to $20 million in salary. That means for every $20 million you want to free up to duck the luxury tax or create cap space, you must trade one first-rounder away. In recent seasons, that number has shifted a bit, as when Denver saved $21 million in the Kenneth Faried deal ($43 million when factoring in their possible tax bill) and had to pay one first as well as a second-round pick. Cleveland got the No. 26 pick this year for taking in Marquese Chriss and Brandon Knight, who together made just less than $20 million.

This year’s draft has the potential to reset things. Oklahoma City is reportedly most aggressive shopping their first-rounder to get off the contracts of Steven Adams, Dennis Schroder or Andre Roberson. Moving Adams would require likely three teams and a whole lot of players, considering the big man is owed $52 million the next two seasons. However, Schroder and Roberson together is about $26 million. If the Thunder could move both players without taking much salary back for the sole price of the 21st pick, that would be a huge victory. Otherwise, they could kick things along again like they did trading Carmelo Anthony for Schroder — take on a better-fitting player on a longer deal who makes similar money as one of the three guys they’re shopping (Phoenix’s T.J. Warren could be a candidate here).

Aside from Oklahoma City, the Sixers, Heat and Trail Blazers could also look to move their pick in an effort to gain financial flexibility either under the salary cap or more likely beneath the luxury tax.