DraftKings MLB Picks June 20: The Mor(ton) The Merrier
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings MLB Picks June 20: The Mor(ton) The Merrier
We have a busy Thursday with 12 games across MLB. The early DraftKings MLB tournament only has two games. The other ten make up the DraftKings MLB main slate.
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The early games are both hot with high humidity in Texas. Even though the wind is blowing in from right at 12 mph, the ball is still going to carry quite a bit.
Rain is going to be a big issue on the night slate again. DC is once against threatened by rain, but less than the past couple of nights. My general feeling is that this one plays unless a pop up goes right over the stadium.
Rain is likely in New York starting in the middle innings. There should be a clearing after a couple of hours, but will they wait that long to finish? Rain will force the roof closed in Toronto, but Chicago and St Louis are clear tonight at least. And there’s no wind to worry about!
Last night was one of those nights that makes me want to quit DFS. I had 100% exposure to Heaney and the Blue Jays kicked his hiney. I rosterbated my way out of Mike Trout in most lineups, and where I did have him, I had the empty White Sox stack. On to better days (I hope).
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on, and we all attack the slate from different angles.
DraftKings MLB Early Notes:
To me, Shane Bieber feels a bit overpriced. The top pitcher on the early slate by a large margin is Mike Minor. Minor has a 2.18 ERA in seven home starts and 2.63 overall. No one else comes close. I’m not touching Jeff Hoffman, so the debate comes down to who we use for our second pitcher.
Robbie Ray is only $800 cheaper than Bieber, so price isn’t that much of a deterrent. The Rockies offense is firing on all cylinders right now, and Ray’s career numbers against them are awful. Bieber has never faced the Rangers, but he is prone to the occasional blow up. Ray is marginally safer and has much more strikeout potential. He is probably the way to go for GPP usage.
It’s so much easier to just use both pitchers from the Texas game and stack the Arizona game, but the prices wont allow that. If we’re forking over at a minimum of $17,300 for pitching, that leaves a little less than $4,100 per hitter. If you go with Bieber and Minor, it falls to a shade under $4,000 per hitter.
The obvious stack place is the Arizona offense, and everyone but Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar are reasonably priced. I’m really liking Nick Ahmed at just $3,500 and Adam Jones at $4,100. That opens things up elsewhere.
To me, first base was the hardest position to fill today, but I like Ronald Guzman on the cheap. That opens up room for big bats like Marte and Escobar. And before you go dismissing Charlie Blackmon against the lefty, realize that he is 18-39(.462) with four homers and 11 RBI against Ray in his career. Arenado and Story have destroyed Ray too.
Catcher is a tough position as well, but I’m not going to spend. I like Jeff Mathis or Kevin Plawecki so I can save money for bats. I ended up going with Texas value and an Arizona stack with Blackmon and Arenado one offs.
DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:
Top Tier:
Charlie Morton ($11,300): There’s a reason why Morton is this expensive. He dominated the A’s earlier this year, allowing just two hits in seven shutout innings en route to 30.8 DraftKings points. A total like that tonight is going to put you way ahead of the field. There is less risk attached to Morton than Odorizzi. Morton’s career numbers against the A’s aren’t terrific, but his dominance earlier this year and his 1.59 ERA in eight road starts have me all over Morton tonight.
Jake Odorizzi ($10,800): Odorizzi had his worst start of the season last week against the Royals. Now he heads to Kansas City to take them on again. So why am I using him? Aside from the lack of other strong options, Odorizzi still picked up 18.1 DraftKings points in his worst start of the season. Even that isn’t a disastrous outing at this price. I’m willing to go back until he gives me a reason not to.
Middle Tier:
Dylan Bundy ($7,600): Bundy’s overall numbers aren’t great this year, but he hasn’t given up more than three runs in a start since April 28th. Of course, most starts he still gives up three runs. That said, Bundy has a career 1.23 ERA against the Mariners and has not given up a run at Safeco/T-Mobile. He’s not going scoreless tonight, but Bundy has ramped up his strikeout totals lately. There is enough upside to go with Bundy tonight. The price is right.
Zac Gallen ($7,300): Gallen has been dominant for AAA New Orleans this year, posting a 1.77 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, and 112 strikeouts in 91.1 innings. There was nothing left for him to prove at AAA. Now he moves up I-55 a few hours to make his major league debut, and honestly, this is a pretty good spot for it. We just saw Gallen’s AAA teammate Jordan Yamamoto dominate the Cardinals twice in the span of ten days. I expect a strong major league debut from Gallen as well.
Bargain Pitchers:
Erick Fedde ($5,300): Fedde has been solid this year, posting a 3.68 ERA, but he only has 21 strikeouts and one win. Solid may not get it done against Philadelphia. This offense was shut down by a broken Mad Max last night, and will be chomping at the bit to get to someone they can hit. That would be Fedde. Still, for this price all we are asking for is a dozen points or so.
Tyler Chatwood ($4,600): Chatwood has a respectable 3.60 ERA in long relief this year, but his 1,90 ERA at Wrigley is what stands out here. All we are looking for from Chatwood at this price is double digits. He’s not going to go more than five innings or rack up a ton of strikeouts. Hell, he may even give up four or more runs. I’m hoping that he remains strong for four or five innings, enough to get me double digits so I can have everyone who’s ever played for the Angels in my lineup.
My picks: Morton, Chatwood; Morton, Gallen; Odorizzi, Bundy
DraftKings MLB Stack Options:
Washington Nationals vs. Nick Pivetta:
Pivetta didn’t even last four innings in his first outing against the Nats this year, ceding seven runs in the process. This was nothing new. The Nationals have destroyed Pivetta his whole time in the majors. Juan Soto is the elite play here, and not just because of the price tonight. Matt Adams, Rendon, and Turner aren’t far behind. Finishing this up with a suddenly awake Brian Dozier looks like a good idea.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Clayton Richard:
The Angels have three homers, ten runs, and a robust .352 average (not to mention a .225 ISO) against Richard in 71 at bats. Upton, Pujols, and Jonathan Lucroy have the homers so far. Trout and Ohtani have never faced Richard, so I have a feeling his career stats against the Angels are about to get a whole lot worse. It’s time to load up on Angels (again).
Chicago Cubs vs. Walker Lockett:
This isn’t that I think Lockett is bad. He isn’t. However, the Cubs just clubbed one of the hottest pitchers in the majors last night. Lockett isn’t there yet, and could take some lumps in his big league debut. I really like Schwarber leading off. Anthony Rizzo and Jason Heyward are in similarly great spots. And I can always make from for Kris Bryant and Javy Baez against anyone.
Minnesota Twins vs. Glenn Sparkman:
Sparkman “only” gave up five runs in five innings to the Twins last week with most of the damage being done via a Max Kepler home run. That’s not to say the rest of the offense wasn’t worth using. Jorge Polanco is 3-6 against Sparkman. Jake Cave is 2-4 with three runs scored. The only Twin that really hasn’t had a good at bat against Sparkman is Eddie Rosario. Everyone else is worth a look.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Wade LeBlanc:
LeBlanc has been better when an opener has gone before him, but he still struggles with lineups full of right handed hitters. Enter the Orioles, who will start no less than eight of them. Keon Broxton, Trey Mancini, Jonathan Villar, and Chris Davis have all homered off of LeBlanc before. Renato Nunez and Pedro Severino look really good here as well. And that isn’t even considering a too-cheap-batting-leadoff Hanser Alberto or punt extraordinaire Stevie Wilkerson. The Orioles are going to save us some money and rack up some points tonight!
DraftKings MLB daily notes:
Framber Valdez has done very well in his three starts, but this looks dangerous against a Yankees team that is starting to get stars back. They chased Snellzilla before the first inning was over yesterday. I like Gary Sanchez here again, but Stanton is probably my favorite play here. A white hot Cameron Maybin is still pretty affordable as well.
It’s another bullpen day for the Yankees, which worked out pretty well over the weekend. The Astros don’t have a lot of stack worthy options anyway. It’s better to go with Josh Reddick, Yordan Alvarez, and either Bregman or Altuve, whichever one you can fit in. I do want to see more from Altuve though.
There is a chance that the Nats may not throw Strasburg against the Phillies since he usually doesn’t throw a bullpen session the day before he starts. Whether they use Fedde or Austin Voth, the strategy is the same: go after them with Philly lefties. A too cheap Bryce Harper is the real highlight here.
I didn’t trust Wainwright before he went on the IL, so I’m not going to trust him in his return. Starlin Castro is still way too cheap. I also like Harold Ramirez and Brian Anderson here.
Tanner Roark’s first start against the Brewers wasn’t horrible but it still left something to be desired. Expect more of the same tonight. Yelich hasn’t homered against Roark yet, but he is 11-42 with nine runs scored and 11 walks. Grandal, Jesus Aguilar, and Travis Shaw have the homers so far. I also like Moose if he is able to play.
MadBum doesn’t have good numbers against the Dodgers at all in his career. You would think that with his uncharacteristic 3.87 ERA that his numbers against the Dodgers this year would be even worse. Nope. MadBum has only given up two runs in three starts to the Dodgers, both on solo homers. I’m tempted to use him, but this luster will wear off soon enough, likely at Dodger Stadium. It’s time to throw some cheap righties at him again. Kike Hernandez and Justin Turner have each homered off of him four times. David Freese is 7-15 with a homer against MadBum as well.
DraftKings MLB one-off plays:
Okay, Jose Suarez is the same price as Andrew Heaney was last night. That tells me he’s overpriced, and after seeing what the Jays did to Heaney last night, I’m not lining up to use Suarez at this price. I’ll throw Vlad Jr and maybe Randal Grichuk out there instead.
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Jimmy Nelson hasn’t looked very good or pitched very long in either start back. His numbers against the Reds aren’t terrible, but Joey Votto is really the only one that has had Nelson’s number. Votto is 9-26(.346) with two homers and six RBI against Nelson. Jesse Winker and Puig are worth a look if you don’t want to go Votto.
Tyler Chatwood isn’t going to pitch a shutout, but the Cubs bullpen in pretty strong after he gets out of there. I don’t really want to load up on the Mets either. Pete Alonso and Conforto are about as deep as I would go.
Odorizzi’s numbers against the Royals aren’t that great, but it’s mostly because of one guy: Whit Merrifield. Merrifield is 7-13 with three homers and five RBI against Odorizzi. Jorge Soler homered off of him last week too.
I wouldn’t recommend chasing after Morton, but if you must, Khris Davis has homered off of him twice. He is also just 3-19 lifetime. Matt Olson is the safer option, going 3-9 with a homer and three RBI.
Frankie Montas has been slightly worse at home. That alone is not a good enough reason to lay off of him, but Austin Meadows and Brandon Lowe are. Montas is going to have a solid game. I just don’t think it will be solid enough to pay five figures for him.
I really appreciate the upside that Julio Urias has, but I’m not paying $8,000 for him when he has spent the whole year out of the bullpen. I’d rather take a poke here with Buster Posey. Joe Panik and Brandon Crawford are worth a look too even though they are going to go 0-fer against Urias.
Even though Dylan Bundy has shined against the Mariners, Tim Beckham has homered twice and walked twice in six career plate appearances against him.
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