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Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: Friday June 21, 2019

By Matt McGarvey

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 19: Gleyber Torres #25 of the New York Yankees celebrates his seventh inning grand slam home run against the Tampa Bay Rays with teammates Gary Sanchez #24 (L), Edwin Encarnacion #30 (2nd R) and Aaron Hicks #31 (R) at Yankee Stadium on June 19, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JUNE 19: Gleyber Torres #25 of the New York Yankees celebrates his seventh inning grand slam home run against the Tampa Bay Rays with teammates Gary Sanchez #24 (L), Edwin Encarnacion #30 (2nd R) and Aaron Hicks #31 (R) at Yankee Stadium on June 19, 2019 in New York City. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /
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Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: June 21st, 2019

Tonight’s Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks slate features 14 games with, Texas (6.3), Minnesota (6), Boston (5.7), and New York (5.4) , holding the best projected team totals. With a handful of high-priced pitchers available, finding value will be imperative for success.

We’ll be aiming to highlight MLB DFS picks from the perspective of batted ball data, batter splits, line movement, and stolen base upside.

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: Standout Batted Ball Stats

Ryan Braun – DK $4300, FD $2900

While the Brewers wont hold as high of a team total as they usually do, players like Ryan Braun are extremely underpriced on FanDuel tonight. Braun is the cheapest that he’s been all month and his recent batted ball stats would indicate that there may be good things to come.

In the last 15 days his batted ball distance is up 21 feet, his hard hit percentage is up 7%, and his exit velocity is up 3 MPH, over his yearly averages.

Miguel Sano – DK $4200, FD $3500

Although Miguel Sano hasn’t been all that impressive of late, from a fantasy perspective, he’s way too cheap given Minnesota’s team total. With the drop in fantasy production, you would expect his batted ball numbers to be down, but they’re actually slightly improved.

In the last 15 days, his batted ball distance is up 7 feet, his hard hit percentage is up 5%, and his exit velocity is up 1 MPH, over his yearly averages. This would point to positive regression to come Sano’s way, and with a team total of six runs, it could be tonight.

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: Batter Splits 

Max Kepler – DK $5000 FD $4200

If you’re a fan of targeting batters in advantageous splits, consider Max Kepler tonight. We already touched on the high team total, but Kepler will also benefit from facing the right, Jake Junis. Kepler is much better against right handed pitching, with a .363 wOBA split (.069 better than when facing a lefty) and a .265 ISO split (.129 better than when facing a lefty).

Daily Fantasy Baseball: Picks Line Movement

There hasn’t been a whole lot of movement across the board in terms of stacks to target, but one area to take a look at is the New York Yankees, against Brad Peacock. New York opened as a -140 favorite, but has since been bet out to -158.

In addition to the movement on the side, the total opened, roughly, around 9 and now sits at 9.5. Peacock has been struggling lately, for the Astros, and I think the Bronx Bombers could take advantage tonight. In the last 15 days his opposing batted ball distance is up 35 feet, his hard hit percentage is up 2%, and his exit velocity is up 4 MPH, over his yearly averages.

Peacock is a fly-ball pitcher (GB/FB ratio of 49%, near the bottom on the slate) and in the last 15 days, he’s had a fly ball percentage of 47%, the third highest on the slate. This could spell trouble at a park like Yankee Stadium.

Next. MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Friday 6/21. dark

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: Stolen Base Upside

Christian Yelich – DK $5900, FD $4800

Christian Yelich and the Brewers base runners will have the added bonus of dealing with the righty, Sonny Gray. Gray has allowed five stolen bases over the course of 71.2 innings pitched this season. This should bode well for Yelich, who has stolen 16 bases this season, the fourth most in baseball.