FanDuel MLB Breakdown – 6/21: Strikeouts for Sale!
By Joe Metz
Welcome to my FanDuel MLB DFS breakdown for the 6/21 main slate! This article will help you condense your player pool and build your optimal cash and GPP lineups on FanDuel.
One day after a 10-game FanDuel MLB slate that was seriously lacking high-end pitching options, we turn our attentions to a robust 14-game slate with a ton of pitching and offenses to target.
This week in MLB DFS has been a ton of fun with some extremely high scores thanks to double-dongs galore, Mike Trout‘s heater and Max Scherzer going off with a broken nose. Throughout all of the excitement, I experienced some personal heartbreak when I pivoted off of my original lineup on Monday night when I switched off of Miles Mikolas and a couple other players.
I ended up missing cash, only to see that my original lineup would’ve placed top 10 in the slam on FanDuel. Nice.
The important lesson to take away, and something that I’ve learned the hard way, is to always trust your gut. This article is meant to help guide you in a direction that should condense your research, but by no means do you have to play my picks if you don’t like them.
It’s always a better feeling to lose with your gut, then lose knowing you pivoted off of your gut to adhere to someone else’s advice.
With that being said, I will do everything I can to guide you in the right direction on FanDuel. Adding on to my GPP breakdowns, I will also be adding a cash play to each position, making this an all-encompassing FanDuel breakdown. Let’s get to it!
FanDuel MLB – Pitchers
Cash Games – Chris Sale | BOS | $12,000
The murmurs of Sale being washed up have quickly subsided, as the Red Sox ace has racked up double-digit strikeouts in 9 of his last 11 starts and has topped 50 FDP in each of his last three outings. His 35.7% strikeout rate is right in line with his rate over the previous 2 seasons and his 2.86 SIERA also solidifies his ridiculous rates as legitimate.
The Blue Jays have a sub-0.300 wOBA (0.291) and a 23.6% strikeout rate against lefties and only Vlad Guerrero Jr. has a whiff rate under 25% against the slider, Sale’s deadliest pitch. I fully expect him to lead the slate in raw points, don’t overthink this.
Also Consider: Trevor Bauer (fine pivot, but lower floor/ceiling combo)
GPP – Aaron Nola | PHI | $8,700
I wouldn’t be surprised if people opt for the savings with Nola due to the frustration of aces busting this season and his matchup couldn’t get any better.
The Marlins have a 0.310 wOBA and a 0.116 ISO (!!) against righties on the season and Nola’s 25.1% strikeout rate and ability to limit the fly-ball (27.3% FB rate) make this ultra-safe for his salary. As of now, the Marlins are also only implied to score 3.5 runs, the 4th lowest mark on the slate.
Also Consider: Matt Boyd, Griffin Canning
FanDuel MLB – Catcher / First Base
Cash Games – C.J. Cron | MIN | $3,400
Cron had another pair of hits last night and has now recorded 3 multi-hit efforts in his last 4 games and comes into another phenomenal matchup tonight against Jakob Junis, who’s allowed a 0.346 wOBA against righties over his last 3 starts with a 13.9% K-rate and 11.1% walk rate. Given Cron’s reduced salary and 0.201 ISO against righties, he’s a phenomenal cash game play.
Also Consider: Luke Voit, Howie Kendrick
GPP – Freddie Freeman | ATL | $4,400
I am typically not a BvP truther, but Freeman’s history against Strasburg is hard to ignore. He’s hit 0.340 over 50 ABs with 4 HRs, a 0.451 wOBA and 0.340 ISO. He’s also piping hot at the dish, recording at least 18.7 FDP 8 of his last 10 games with at least 1 RBI in 9 of those 10.
Also Consider: Eric Hosmer
FanDuel MLB – Second Base
Cash Games – Derek Dietrich | CIN | $2,800
It still pains me to roster Dietrich after fading his 3 HR game when he was chalk, but his spot is hard to ignore. For only $2,800, he brings a 0.417 wOBA and 0.410 ISO against right-handed pitching into a matchup against Chase Anderson.
The former has been tough on lefties this season, allowing only a 0.240 wOBA, but give me Dietrich’s stats for such a reduced rate over Anderson’s early-season success.
Also Consider: Brock Holt
GPP – Ketel Marte | ARI | $4,000
Marte may be one of the hottest players in baseball, recording 15 hits over his last 5 games with 3 home runs and 7 runs scored. He’s held his strikeout rate against righties under 18% and comes into a matchup with Jeff Samardzija, who’s allowed a 0.323 wOBA and 5.77 xFIP against lefties this season with a 47.3% fly-ball rate. This is a golden GPP play that should come with minimal ownership.
Also Consider: Mike Moustakas
FanDuel MLB – Third Base
Cash Games – Anthony Rendon | WAS | $4,400
Whenever Rendon faces off against a lefty, he’ll compete for top overall play on the slate. On the season, he’s posted a 0.483 wOBA and 0.382 ISO against lefties with a 16.2% walk rate, all elite rates.
Dallas Keuchel hasn’t pitched since last season and I fully expect there to be a level of rust that Rendon will be able to take advantage of, especially considering Keuchel is no longer the strikeout pitcher he used to be.
Also Consider: Tommy La Stella
GPP – Yoan Moncada | CWS | $3,600
I haven’t touched on the White Sox/Rangers game with the highest O/U, but it makes a prime GPP target. Moncada has posted a 0.395 wOBA and 0.262 ISO against righties this season and while Ariel Jurado has held lefties to a 0.293 wOBA, his 5.62 xFIP against them indicate a lot of regression on the horizon.
Also Consider: Manny Machado
FanDuel MLB – Shortstop
Cash Games – Jorge Polanco | MIN | $4,000
The Twins are another team in a phenomenal spot tonight and Polanco is coming off of a nice showing last night with a home run. Junis has allowed a 0.370 wOBA against lefties and a 46.3% hard-contact rate, which bodes well for Polanco and his 0.415 wOBA and 0.250 ISO against righties.
Also Consider: Kevin Newman
GPP – Tim Anderson | CWS | $3,400
If you want to find a player that’s putting himself on the map this season, look no further than Tim Anderson. The bat-flipping SS has posted a 0.361 wOBA and 0.186 ISO against righties and his matchup, Ariel Jurado, has been a reverse-splits pitcher. He’s allowed a 0.385 wOBA and has allowed 5 of his 6 home runs to righties.
Also Consider: Jonathan Villar
FanDuel MLB – Outfield
Cash Games – Mike Trout | LAA | $4,900
This play needs absolutely no explanation, as Trout is not only the best contemporary baseball player ever (feel free to debate me on Twitter), but he’s posted 11 hits in his last 5 games. In those games, he’s posted FDP totals of; 31.4, 40.9, 0, 57.9 and 21.2.
Adding icing to the cake, Michael Wacha has allowed a 0.422 wOBA to righties this season. Bombs away!
Also Consider: Christian Yelich, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Jarrod Dyson, Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun, Bryan Reynolds
GPP – Shin-Soo Choo | TEX | $3,700
Hitting once again on the CWS/TEX game for GPPs, Shin-Soo Choo checks in as an awesome option in a somewhat thin TEX lineup. Choo has defeated father time this season, posting a 0.417 wOBA and 0.261 ISo with a 47.6% hard contact rate against righties this season and gets the luxury of facing off against Reynaldo Lopez.
The latter has allowed a 0.386 wOBA and 48.4% fly-ball rate against lefties this season, making $3,700 for Choo almost a steal.
Also Consider: Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Domingo Santana, David Peralta, Nomar Mazara