MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Friday, 6/21 – Canning Will Crush the Cards

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Friday 7/21

Welcome back to this Friday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play.

The primer is back for tonight’s 14-game main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings. With 28 pitchers available on today’s slate, I’ve narrowed it down to just five that I am considering for my cash games and GPPs.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t other pitchers who are viable, it just means these are my favorite five pitchers and likely the only guys I am going to bet my hard earned dollars on.

I’m feeling good coming off a pretty big win last night on Draftkings behind solid pitching performances by Dylan Bundy and Zach Gallen and some Yankees/Blue Jays bats. I was able to put 1800000000 DK points and take down a small GPP, woo-hoo!

Since we have such a big slate, I am going to go ahead and list all of our options on the next slide so we can have a big picture view of tonight’s pitching options.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: First Look

Here are tonight’s pitching match-ups. The home pitcher is listed second and the Vegas odds are listed in parenthesis when available. Remember that some pitchers have extremely large home/road splits.

Vegas lines and implied run totals can be tricky to navigate at times and they do change throughout the day, but they are certainly a great place to start your MLB DFS research. For cash games, I am often looking for large home favorites, while anything goes for GPPs.

Brad Peacock vs. James Paxton (-165)

Dallas Keuchel vs. Stephen Strasburg (-145)

Sandy Alcantara vs. Aaron Nola (-225)

Eric Lauer vs. Joe Musgrove (-120)

Trent Thornton vs. Chris Sale (-355)

Matthew Boyd vs. Trevor Bauer (-200)

Reynaldo Lopez vs. Ariel Jurado (-145)

Sonny Gray vs. Chase Anderson (-130)

Martin Perez (-160) vs. Jakob Junis 

Griffin Canning (-120) vs. Michael Wacha

Jeff Samardzija vs. Taylor Clarke (-135)

German Marquez vs. Walker Buehler (-195)

Unknown vs. Mike Leake 

Jalen Beeks (projected reliever) vs. Tanner Anderson

We have the season debut of one Dallas Keuchel tonight for Atlanta. John Means is listed on FanDuel as the starter for Baltimore but is on the injured list so we might get a bullpen game there.

Notice there are only two road favorites on the entire slate and one of them is my cover athlete today and his name is in the title of the article (so he’s probably one of my five!)

Let’s start with the arm we trust most in cash games, who also happens to be the highest priced pitcher on both sites (and rightfully so).

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Cash Game Ace

Chris Sale (12k both sites) vs. Toronto

Sale is by far the most proven commodity amongst the pitchers on tonight’s slate and his price reflects both his current form and an appealing matchup with the Blue Jays.  Sale has strung together four consecutive starts with 10+ strikeouts and has gone for an impressive 72, 55, and 52 FanDuel points in his last three.

The Blue Jays have been on a nice little hot streak offensively, but have not been facing pitchers with anything close to the kind of stuff that Sale has.

There are a few bats that could be a thorn in his side, but Toronto’s 24.5% K rate almost ensures that Sale will be in contention for another 10 strikeout performance. He’s a ridiculous -355 favorite which is a number we just don’t see that often during the season so Vegas thinks he’s in line for an easy win.

I’ve been trending towards paying down for pitching lately, but there are some aces on this slate that may be well worth paying up for and you absolutely have to consider Sale as a priority in your cash build and someone you want some exposure to in GPPs with the ceiling he’s flashed recently.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: GPP Pivot #1

Trevor Bauer (11.5k FD, 11.1k DK) vs. Detroit

If you’re not paying up for Sale, then you have consider Bauer instead for a few hundred less on each site. While he has struggled with bouts of inconsistency this season, specifically with his control, Bauer has still shown that he is an elite pitcher with big-time strikeout upside when he is able to locate his pitches.

He’s facing the same Detroit team that he just pitched a four-hit complete game shutout against last week, and while the odds of him doing that again are low, I’d say the odds of him having another great outing are high.

The Tigers lineup is made of mainly right-handed hitters and they currently have the highest strikeout rate in all of baseball at 26.4%. Bauer’s hard slider is death to righties and he used it to pile up 8 strikeouts in his domination of Detroit last week without walking a single hitter.

This feels like a great spot for a pitcher to come in confident and attack a lineup that he knows is inferior and I think he’s likely to have a good, if not great game.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: GPP Pivot #2

Stephen Strasburg (9.8k FD, 10.5k DK) vs. Atlanta

This feels like a perfect spot to roster an elite pitcher like Strasburg at what could be his lowest price all year on FanDuel. I’m confident that he will be low-owned tonight based on the fact that he has had two sub-par outings in his last three starts and is facing arguably the hottest offense in all of baseball in the Braves.

However, that’s exactly what makes him a great GPP play. Strasburg has come up big in tough spots like this before this season, including a 58 FD point gem against these Braves in Atlanta last month. In that game, he struck out 11 Braves over 7 innings to propel his team to a win and there’s no reason he can’t do it again.

We saw another elite pitcher Jacob DeGrom handle this Braves offense earlier in the week, dominating them at nearly no ownership and while Strasburg may be one tier below DeGrom in the pecking order of elite pitchers, he certainly has the stuff to get it done. This is mainly a FanDuel play for me and an ownership play for large field tournaments only.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Cheap Arm/SP2

Griffin Canning (8k FD, 8.5k DK) @ St. Louis

And here we have my favorite pitcher on the entire slate. Canning has been as steady as it comes for the Angels since being called up to the big leagues on April 30th. He’s continuing to show that he has what it takes to be an effective major league pitcher and has gutted out some tough performances lately against good competition.

His last four starts have been against Oakland (twice), the Dodgers, and Tampa Bay and Canning has made it through six innings in each of those outings. He’s has given up some runs, but has also demonstrated some elite control while also racking up Ks. In that 24 inning stretch, he has an immaculate 25/1 strikeout to walk ratio which I find incredibly impressive.

Now, you probably already know I love this kid’s stuff, but what we really need to discuss here is the matchup. The Cardinals have been the arguably the worst offense in baseball over the last 30 days, ranking dead last in wOBA and WRC+.

They are 5th worst in ISO, hitting .214 during that stretch while striking out at a 25% clip. Their lineup is really right-handed heavy with Carpenter, Fowler, and Wong being the only lefties in there, so Canning should have a solid platoon advantage as well.

I’m all over Canning tonight as I am a believer in him as a pitcher and I will continue to target the Cards with good pitchers until they break out of this awful slump.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Cheap Arm/SP2

Sonny Gray (7.3k FD, 7.9k DK) @ Milwaukee

Sonny Gray is going to get overlooked here, I absolutely guarantee you that much. Most people don’t want to attack the Brewers or use a pitcher in Miller Park, but I am all over Gray here tonight in this spot for a few reasons.

Sonny has been enjoying a solid bounce-back campaign for Cincy this year and has shown that he still strike out hitters in this league at a nice clip with 71 Ks over 66 innings. He’s been excellent against lefties in particular with a 31.8% K rate this year, and has really impressive ground ball rates against both pitching hands.

The Brewers are mired in a slump right now, scoring only 1 run or less in three of their last 4 games. While they are a dangerous offense for sure, they are also a team that Gray has had success against this year.

He pitched six shutout innings against them last month and struck out 9 on his way to 55 FanDuel points, his best output on the season. It’s a sneaky good spot for Gray and I like him a lot tonight.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not. Today, we have two expensive pitchers with solid matchups that both make pretty safe cash game options in Sale and Bauer.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Sale-Canning, while my favorite GPP pairing is going to be Canning-Gray in order to fit some more expensive bats.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.

Cash Rankings

1. Sale
2. Bauer
3. Canning

GPP Rankings

1. Canning
2. Gray
3. Strasburg
4. Sale/Bauer

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck