DraftKings PGA: 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks and Analysis
IMPORTANT NOTE: I will be at Detroit Golf Club this week, Monday to Sunday scouting the course and the field. Follow me on Twitter @Mystery_Main for up-to-date course conditions and player updates. I will try and throw in some player interviews as well to see how this course is going to play. And feel free to message me about anything that is Detroit Golf Club, DraftKings PGA or Rocket Mortgage Classic.
The Travelers Championship was fun. Chez Reavie was able to end his drought and break into the winners circle for the first time in 11 years. It was nice to see him take home the trophy. Keegan Bradley and Paul Casey put together a nice tournament, but were not even close to catching Chez. I had a very good week, getting 10/20 lineups 6/6 through the cut. That lead to a payday for your’s truly. Let’s hope that we can do it again for the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
This week, the PGA tour moves from Cromwell Connecticut to Detroit Michigan for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Detroit Golf Club plays host to Rocket Mortgage Classic. This is the first time that it has hosted a PGA Tour event. I am pumped for this week because I live 4 miles from the course and will be there the entire week.
I walked the course tonight and let me tell you, the Detroit Golf Club will play extremely easy for the best golfers in the world. The main defenses of the course are trees and thick rough. The trees may cause problems, but the rough is not nearly as penal as I thought they could have made it. The course is playing slightly over 7,300 yards and will play as a par-72. The course is pretty flat, the greens are pretty flat, and the hazards are not as daunting as I was hoping for. I was just at The Memorial and this course looks much less challenging (Patrick Cantlay won with a -17 at The Memorial) I have a feeling that these golfers will score very well on this course. The course is beautiful, but not yet set up for championship play.
DK Scoring Gained
DraftKings PGA: 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks
Dustin Johnson 12,000
It is a cop-out picking the top priced golfer, but I cannot pass up on Dustin. He is the best golfer in this field, and I can confidently say that he is significantly better than any golfer priced below 9K. This field is pretty weak, so it is a solid strategy to go stars and scrubs.
DJ ranks top-5 in just about every stat in my model. I use complex models, and have 14 categories that I am weighing. DJ only ranks outside of the top-5 in Fairways Gained and Putting Gained. For this price he has to get top-3, which I think he will do this week. After looking at the course, Dustin will bomb it into submission.
Hideki Matsuyama 10,200
Matsuyama is striking the ball pure, he is just starting to turn his putting game around. Hideki, like Dustin Johnson, is so much better than 90% of this field. If he can roll in some putts, he is going to rack up birdies in a hurry.
Hideki ranks 1st overall in my model. In this field, Hideki-bot ranks 1st in approach gained L36 rounds, 1st in BOB Gained over his L12 rounds, 1st in DK points gained over his L12 rounds, and 1st in Opportunities Gained over his L24 rounds. He is lights out in every stat in my model except putting.
Sung Kang 7,600
I went with two high-priced chalk in the 10K range and will now present you with some value. The rest of my lineups will feature guys who rack up birdies (ie DK Points) in a hurry. Kang ranks top-10 in BOB and DK points gained. The guy won on tour earlier this year at a birdie-fest, so you know he can play well at this type of tract.
DraftKings PGA: 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic Values
Nick Watney 7,600
Watney is stating out very well in my model. He does not pop in any statistic, but ranks 14th in my model. Watney ranks 13th T2G and 16th BOB Gained, two of the key stats I am looking at for Rocket Mortgage.
Max Homa 7,300
Homa is another winner on the PGA Tour this year that makes my list. The guy bombs the ball and has shown that he can go super low at easier courses. His approach game and T2G game is very good, 21 and 28 respectively. If he can roll in some putts, then I like his chances to rack up birdies.
Hank Lebioda 6,900
The rookie ranks 12th in my model. Usually I am hesitant to play rookies, but this course seems to set up perfectly for Lebioda. Plus, this is the first time seeing the course for all of these golfers this week. Lebioda ranks 15th in BOB and 14th in DK Points gained, and is doing it with solid ball striking and solid putting. Those two things go very well together.
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