MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Tuesday, 6/25 – Never Say Never (in DFS)

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Tuesday, 6/25

Welcome back to this Tuesday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

I put it out there on Twitter last night, yesterday just wasn’t my day in DFS. I’m taking out my frustration from last night by digging deeper than ever into today’s slate in order to give you the best pitching plays for your lineups tonight.

The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play.

The primer is back for tonight’s 15-game main slate on FanDuel and DraftKings. With 30 pitchers available on today’s slate, I’ve narrowed it down to just four (I know, I surprised myself, too!) that I am considering for my cash games and GPPs. It’s going to be a matter of quality over quantity for me today.

That doesn’t mean there aren’t other pitchers who are viable, it just means these are my favorite five pitchers and likely the only guys I am going to bet my hard-earned dollars on. In fact, there are some really good pitchers in good spots that I am going to pass on for salary considerations.

Since we have such a big slate, I am going to go ahead and list all of our options on the next slide so we can have a big picture view of tonight’s pitching options.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: First Look

Here are tonight’s pitching match-ups. The home pitcher is listed second and the Vegas odds are listed in parenthesis when available. Remember that some pitchers have extremely large home/road splits.

Vegas lines and implied run totals can be tricky to navigate at times and they do change throughout the day, but they are certainly a great place to start your MLB DFS research. For cash games, I am often looking for large home favorites, while anything goes for GPPs.

Logan Allen vs. Josh Rogers (long reliever)

Walker Lockett vs. Jake Arrieta (-145)

Clayton Richard vs. Chad Green (opener only)

White Sox TBA vs. David Price

Glenn Sparkman vs. Shane Bieber (-245)

Jesse Chavez (-135) vs. Jordan Zimmerman

Max Scherzer (-235) vs. Trevor Richards

Max Fried vs. Adbert Alozay

Marco Gonzales vs. Zach Davies (-180)

Trevor Williams vs. Gerrit Cole (-290)

Blake Snell (-120) vs. Kyle Gibson

Chris Bassitt vs. Jack Flaherty (-140)

Ross Stripling vs. Robbie Ray

Chi Chi Gonzalez vs. Madison Bumgarner

Tyler Mahle vs. Andrew Heaney (-160)

The first thing you’ll notice is we are missing Vegas lines for a lot of games. This is likely due to how many uncertain pitching situations we have with teams either using openers or calling up guys from the minors. The Cubs are starting an impressive rookie in Alozay, but he only pitched four innings in his first appearance and he may not be used as a conventional starter.

Keep an eye out for Vegas lines today and any sharp line movement. I’m airing on the side of caution and not looking to use too many of these young arms or guys who might be on short leashes with pitch counts.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Cash Game Ace

Shane Bieber (9.8k FD, 10.8k DK) vs. Kansas City

Surprised to see that Mad Max or Gerrit Cole don’t occupy this spot? If you read other articles today you’ll surely find their names at the top of many touts’ lists, but do you really need me to tell you they are good plays?

Both are priced up beyond what I’m willing to pay, specifically on FanDuel, and I’m going to make the argument that Bieber has similar upside for considerably less salary.

Bieber (Shane, not Justin) has been the ace of the Indians staff this year and is pitching like one right now. The Tribe lost Carrasco and Kluber to injuries, but Bieber has been shining in their absence.

This year his K rate has seen a major uptick from 24% to 31% and he’s registered games with 10, 12, and 15 strikeouts already. He’s in a good spot tonight against a struggling Kansas City offense that ranks 20th in wOBA and 23rd in ISO against right-handed pitching this year. They’ve been even worse than usual over the last month, ranking 29th in wOBA and 26th in ISO while striking out 24% of the time.

Bieber is hot (the pitcher, not the performer) and facing a cold Royals offense at home. He may not have the name recognition of Cole or Scherzer, but he should be a household name soon enough! (Maybe even more famous than Justin!)

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Top GPP Pivot

Madison Bumgarner (8.3k FD, 8.2k DK) vs. Colorado

Those are some nice prices on a guy with a pedigree like Bumgarner in a spot this good. I’m not usually one to use career records vs. teams but it’s hard to ignore what Bum has done against the Rox, particularly in San Francisco.

Bumgarner has a record of 9-2 with an ERA of 1.94 and 111 strikeouts over 106 innings in his career against the Rockies at home. Those are some serious numbers and he’s already beaten them twice this season, once in Coors and once at home.

The Rockies are not nearly the offense they are at home and a middle-of-the-pack offense against LHP.  They continue to miss Trevor Story‘s presence in the middle of their lineup. If Drew Pomeranz can do what he did last night against the Rockies, I don’t see why an actual good pitcher can’t dominate them, too.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Cheap Arm/SP2

Logan Allen (8.5k FD, 8.1k DK) @ Baltimore

The Padres rookie was impressive in his MLB debut last week when he blanked the powerful Brewers over seven innings, allowing only three hits and two walks while striking out five. Today he takes his act on the road to Baltimore and we get to see if his first performance was fluky good, or if he has what it takes to stick around in the majors.

The negatives here are a major ballpark downgrade (Camden is great for hitters) and having to face a DH since the game is in an American league stadium. However, Baltimore is still an offense with poor offensive numbers, ranking 24th in wOBA against LHP and carrying a 25% K rate.

Allen’s minor league numbers suggest he’s not a strikeout pitcher, but we’ve seen plenty of average arms rack up decent K totals against the free-swinging Orioles. These prices are fair considering how well he pitched last time out and the positive matchup, but I do think many will hesitate to pay this much for an unproven commodity, too, making him a potentially low-owned tournament play.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Cheap Arm/SP2

Chris Bassitt (6.9k FD, 9.3k DK)

Wow, what a price difference! I didn’t think it was possible for a pitcher to be overpriced and underpriced on the same slate! The price on DK definitely takes him out of the SP2 conversation, but his price on FanDuel might be one of the best bargains I’ve seen all year.

Bassitt started the year on fire but has seen his numbers fall off over his last five starts. He’s still been able to pitch effectively, though, allowing more than three earned runs in only one start all season. His walks are up a bit, which worries me and his strikeouts are nothing to get too excited about. But he might have the best matchup on the entire slate.d

No team is colder offensively than the Cardinals. They rank last or close to the bottom in every offensive statistic over the last month. Perhaps that means they are ready to break out sooner or later, but right now I’m going to continue picking on them until we see those bats come to life. Bassitt will face a bunch of righties and uses a number of different pitches to keep hitters off guard. At this price, I’m going to load up and hope for six clean innings and a handful of strikeouts.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not. Today, we have two expensive pitchers in Cole and Scherzer who you can play in cash, but I am opting to save some cap with Bieber on FanDuel.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing is going to be Bumgarner-Allen, and that just might end up being my favorite GPP combo, too!

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.

Cash Rankings

1. Bieber (FD)
2. Bumgarner (DK)
3. Allen

GPP Rankings

1. Bassitt (FD)
2. Bumgarner
3. Bieber
4. Allen

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck