FanDuel MLB DFS Breakdown – June 26th, 2019: Cash Out with Corbin
By Joe Metz
Welcome to my FanDuel MLB DFS breakdown for the 6/24 main slate! This article will help you condense your player pool and build your optimal cash and GPP lineups on FanDuel.
After an action-packed 15-game Tuesday slate in which we saw the aces Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole toe the rubber and TONS of offense, we turn our attention to a Wednesday slate with 9 games on the docket.
Much like my previous pieces, this article will be tailored specifically to FanDuel and will help you condense your player pool and get a head start on both your cash and GPP lineup construction. I will run through each position on FanDuel and offer my top cash and my top GPP option, while also listing some honorable mentions to help you create a player pool for your preliminary research.
Below are the games listed in the 9-game main slate:
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins
Oakland Athletics @ St. Louis Cardinals
Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers
Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Angels
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Houston Astros
Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins
Due to writing this article the night before, the majority of teams don’t have an initial IRT yet, so without further ado, let’s get to the breakdown!
FanDuel MLB – Top Pitchers
Cash: Patrick Corbin | WAS | $9,800
This should be an absolute no-brainer as FanDuel has flat-out mispriced Corbin against the Marlins. On the season, the Nationals ace (well, one of them), has a 26.6% strikeout rate (12.5% whiff rate) with a 3.97 xFIP and a 45.9% groundball rate. He’s not quite living up to his stellar 2018, but still putting up ace-like numbers.
The Marlins are, well, the Marlins. While they’ve only struck out at a 14.2% clip against lefties this season, their 0.292 team wOBA and 0.079 team ISO show just how ineffective this offense has been. Corbin’s strikeout ability should be able to give the Marlins more issues than usual and their virtual lack of power make him the clear cut cash game option. Don’t overthink this one.
GPP: Jake Odorizzi | MIN | $9,700
Typically I pay down a bit more in GPPs, but there’s nobody with the ceiling that I look for at a cheaper salary and I’m super intrigued by Odorizzi tonight. He’s posted a 27.2% strikeout rate this season and has really limited the power output this season, holding both lefties and righties under a 0.105 ISO.
The Rays have been a dangerous offense this season, but hold a 23.0% strikeout rate as a team against righties and that factors in Yandy Diaz (14.8% K rate), who is now on the IL. This is not a “safe” matchup by any means, but the corner that Odorizzi has turned this season is hard to ignore, making this a great GPP play at what I expect to be low ownership.
Also Consider: Mike Minor, Zac Gallen
FanDuel MLB – Top Catcher / First Basemen
Cash: J.T. Realmuto | PHI | $2,900
While most people typically roster a first baseman in this slot, the price on Realmuto is too hard to pass up here. He’s posted a 0.375 wOBA and 0.271 ISO against lefties this season with a 45.5% hard-contact rate. He’s also posted extra-base hits in back to back games.
His counterpart, Jason Vargas, has allowed a 0.322 wOBA to righties this season while allowing a 40.7% hard-contact rate, making this a staple value play in my cash lineup.
GPP: Matt Olson | OAK | $3,200
While Matt Olson has been more of a reverse-splits hitter this season, he’s still posted a 0.212 ISO against righties with a 0.322 wOBA. What makes this even better is the fact that Adam Wainwright has surrendered a 0.423 wOBA and 0.256 ISO against lefties this season with a 46.9% hard-contact rate.
The power potential is through the roof here and could vault you to the top of a GPP at minimal ownership.
Also Consider: Rhys Hoskins (top pay-up option, but don’t see a need with Realmuto’s value), Peter Alonso, Freddie Freeman
FanDuel MLB – Top Second Basemen
Cash: Jose Altuve | HOU | $3,800
Any time Altuve is under $4,000, he’s worth a long look. While he’s only posted a 0.301 wOBA against righties this season, that number rises to 0.358 if you take 2018 into account as well.
His matchup, Dario Agrazal, has only had 12 PAs against righties, but has allowed a 0.499 wOBA and also only posted a 20.3% K rate in AAA this season, which would put him well below the major league average. I will always side with a patient veteran like Altuve in a matchup like tonight, and his power/speed combo give him some great cash upside.
GPP: Mike Moustakas | MIL | $3,700
I expect many to avoid Mous because of the L/L matchup, but he’s actually posted a 0.326 wOBA and 0.194 ISO against lefties this season all while striking out only 16.8% of the time.
Wade LeBlanc has allowed a 0.312 wOBA and 0.184 ISO against lefties this season and while that doesn’t completely put Mous over the edge, the fact that he bats in the heart of a lineup that crushes lefties should provide some peripheral upside to playing him.
Also Consider: Ozzie Albies, Robinson Cano
FanDuel MLB – Top Third Basemen
Cash: Eugenio Suarez | CIN | $3,100
This slate has a theme – criminally underpriced players in elite spots. Suarez is notorious for crushing lefties, as he’s posted a 0.420 wOBA and 0.259 ISO against them this season with a 54.7% hard-contact rate across 2018-19.
The lefty on the mound for the Angels, Jose Suarez, has surrendered a 0.385 wOBA, 0.280 ISO and a 47.4% fly ball rate against righties this season and is set to get absolutely torched by Suarez. He’s another staple in my cash games tonight.
GPP: Kris Bryant | CHC | $3,900
Another bat that crushes lefties is the Cubs superstar Kris Bryant. This season, Bryant has posted a 0.478 wOBA and a 0.453 ISO against lefties while holding a higher walk rate than strikeout rate.
Dallas Keuchel was eased into action in his debut with Atlanta, in his sample size of 23 PAs, he got hammered by righties for a 0.390 wOBA and 0.250 ISO. His 13% strikeout rate is also confirmation that his decrease in strikeouts over the past two seasons was not a fluke. Bryant comes in as a prime play the position, but with his salary a bit higher, he’ll be relegated to my GPP pool tonight.
Also Consider: Matt Carpenter, Tommy La Stella
FanDuel MLB – Top Shortstop
Cash: Javier Baez | CHC | $3,700
Even with his price gradually increasing, it still feels like Javy Baez is $500 too cheap. He’s recorded 5 hits in is last 3 games with 4 RBIs in that span. Against lefties alone this season, he’s posted a 0.460 wOBA, 0.404 ISO and a 52.9% hard-contact rate.
The big downside is his 31% strikeout rate, but the lack of strikeout upside that Dallas Keuchel now brings to the table should mitigate a lot of that risk, making him a prime cash-game target.
GPP: Jean Segura | PHI | $3,600
If you need just $100 in savings to achieve the perfect lineup, pivoting from Baez to Segura could be a safe bet. He’s someone that seemingly goes overlooked every slate, but has posted 5 hits in his last 3 games with 4 RBIs and 2 runs scored. On top of that, he holds an elite 0.463 wOBA and 0.383 ISO against southpaws with a ridiculous 10.6% strikeout rate, showing incredible ability to make contact.
He should be able to handle Jason Vargas with ease, who has allowed an 80.2% contact rate this season.
Also Consider: Trea Turner, Kevin Newman
FanDuel MLB – Top Outfielders
Cash: Yordan Alvarez | HOU | $4,300
This play might not carry the ownership you would chase in cash games, but I see him as one of the safest bets on the slate. The rookie phenom has posted 5 hits in his last 3 games with 2 of them leaving the yard and driving in 6 runs. On top of that, he’s smashed righties to the tune of a 0.501 wOBA and 0.472 ISO.
Agrazal’s sub-par strikeout ability should mitigate the risk of Alvarez’s free-swinging nature and heighten his potential to rack up contact at the plate. You can’t go wrong with this play.
GPP: Christian Yelich | MIL | $4,700
Yelich is always cash viable and if you find the salary to spend all the way up, I recommend it, but regardless, he’s an elite GPP play. Even without the platoon advantage, he’s posted a 0.431 wOBA and 0.364 ISO in L/L matchups while only striking out 15.8% of the time.
Wade LeBlanc should get absolutely brutalized by this lineup tonight and I expect Yelich to be the key cog.
Also Consider: Mike Trout (default), Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna Jr., Shohei Ohtani, Kole Calhoun, Nick Markakis, Josh Reddick, Albert Almora Jr.