MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – June 26 – It’s Up to You New York

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Tuesday’s MLB DFS slate was supposed to be all about offense with the Yankees near 8 IRT headlining the days ownership but it was ultimately pitching that ruled the day as the top four raw point plays were starting pitchers with Max Scherzer, Madison Bumgarner, Jesse Chavez and David Price putting up the top scores on the slate while the Yankees chalk bats managed “only” four runs despite leading off the game with back to back home runs.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

MLB DFS – Early Slate Pitching Breakdown:

We have a six game Early MLB DFS slate here on Wednesday that looks to be clear of weather and loaded with pitching and there is no better place to start than with Chris Sale ($22.4K) who is a priority play for me here today at home against the K heavy White Sox.

Sale leads the slate with a 35.4% K rate on the season and his 38.8% mark over the last month is the top mark in baseball and he will face a Chicago team he dominated in his only other match-up this year with 10 K’s and a 33 fantasy point shut out. Sale is the don’t get cute play on this slate in my opinion.

The real decision comes down to SP2 where we have three strong options right below Sale in terms of price with Trevor Bauer, German Marquez and James Paxton, but I think you can make the case to drop down one step further to Dylan Bundy ($16K) to get the best bang for your buck.

Bundy gets arguably the best match-up on the slate against a Padres team that strikes out at the highest rate in baseball versus RHP at 26.4% and while this game being in Camden Yards presents risk, I think that is already being factored into this price point.

Bundy always comes with risk in DFS but when it comes to K’s, the Orioles right-hander has been in elite form and I am not simply using that word for show – his 27.4% K rate over the last month is 16th in the league – ahead of guys like Strasburg and Berrios and ahead of the competition for SP2 today with Paxton (25.7%), Bauer (22.1%) and Marquez (25.9%).

Bundy will also have the splits significantly in his favor as he has a 31.1% K rate against RHB in 2019 and this Padres line-up will likely have 6-7 RHB which gives Bundy a considerable ceiling and I think with the Padres have a 5+ IRT, most will opt to load up on the Padres bats rather than side with the Orioles arms which could give you interesting leverage in GPP’s.

If Bundy is a little too risky for you, then my pivot would be to go with James Paxton ($17.8K) right above him – who has now thrown 100+ pitches in back to back starts and struck out 7 in each outing. This Blue Jays team strikes out a TON as we saw last night against Cortes and the Yankee bullpen where they struck out 12 times and Paxton’s price seems to still be weighed down by his injury and recent struggles but this could be the spot you jump on now that his pitch count is back where we want it to be and after blowing through their bullpen the last two nights – the Yankees may ask Paxton to go deep into this one.

MLB DFS – Early Slate Bats:

The Yankees and Red Sox both have IRT’s well over 6 today and as much as I do not want to simply eat the chalk – I am not sure how you avoid the Yankees on FantasyDraft today with their pricing.

Sure you have guys like Gary Sanchez, Edwin Encarnacion and Gleyber Torres just above $9K but those are the ONLY high-priced bats – go ahead and scroll down – Aaron Judge ($8.4K), Luke Voit ($8.3K), Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner ($7.2K) and Didi Gregorious ($6.5K).

The fact you can fit Sale/Paxton and a 6 man Yankee stack when they are at home in the Bronx without thinking feels like an optimal play and one of those – try not to over think it spots.

Now opposing pitcher Trent Thornton has actually been quite solid from a run prevention perspective but here is the rub – he is a fly ball pitcher (38%) who gives up nearly 40% hard contact and specifically against LHB he has been hit hard – very hard, to the tune of a .226 ISO.

Now the RHB may not have the ISO numbers but the fly ball rates jump significantly here to 44% and well with the Yankees power from the right-side, this could end up being a really long day for Thornton and a bad Jays pen.

The beauty of this Yankee chalk, I mean stack, today is that the lefties you want to attack Thornton with are laughably cheap which allows you the flexibility to grab the guys like Judge, Voit, Sanchez etc to round out any stack.

Telling you to stack the Yankees is not sneaky, and for someone who loves to argue the fade of chalk every chance he gets this one pains me – but the pricing on a small slate like this when you factor in that you can easily afford two aces – it just becomes the clear path to builds for me.

MLB DFS – Early Slate Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note – this sample lineup and slate overview is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build. 

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

SP: Chris Sale

SP: James Paxton

IF: Gary Sanchez

IF: Edwin Encarnacion

IF: Didi Gregorious

OF: Aaron Judge

OF: Aaron Hicks

OF: Brett Gardner

UTIL: Renato Nunez

UTIL: Humberto Arteaga

Slate Overview: Two studs and a 6 man Yankee stack – this is one of those slates where I just do not see the need to get cute with how the pricing lands and while it may be chalky on a small slate it does not mean it is the wrong path to take.

The key is finding the one-off plays who can help differentiate you and I think Renato Nunez ($7.8K) is one of those guys. Nunez will be at home in Baltimore against LHP Matt Strahm and Nunez absolutely has hammered LHP this year to the tune of a .293 ISO with a 44% fly ball rate. Strahm meanwhile leans primarily on his slider to RHB, throwing it nearly 40% of the time and Nunez has mashed that offering, with a .231 ISO mark against that pitch type.

Keep an eye on the lineups today as we could get some easy plug and play value on a day slate like this – swallow hard and eat that chalk baby.

MLB DFS – Main Slate Pitching:

Remember all that great pitching we had on the Early Slate? Well, let’s just say it would have been nice to have some of that on the Main Slate because the pitching just looks gross to me on the Main Slate.

With the pitching being far less straightforward, I think the Main Slate lends itself to be more focused on GPP’s and our friends at FantasyDraft are hooking us up AGAIN with another $400 FREE ROLL for the Main Slate – get in this!

Patrick Corbin ($20.4K) is going to be the chalk cash game SP1 pitching against the Marlins in Miami and with his ownership likely be the highest of any arm on the slate, I want to get leverage – no, not by stacking the Marlins but instead by using the opposing pitcher in Zac Gallen ($13.6K).

Gallen has the one thing we need on this slate and that is high K upside as through 14 starts at AAA he was sporting a 33% k rate and delivered 6 K’s in his first start at the Major League level against the Cardinals. Gallen checks all the boxes for me today as he has high K upside, can work deep into games (he threw 99 pitches in his first start) and where everyone will be fawning all over the “great pitching environment” for Corbin, remember that Gallen gets the same favorable conditions in an extreme pitcher’s park in Miami.

Now I never wake up thinking, man I cannot wait to roster Adam Wainwright ($13.6K) today and as a Mets fan, I have nightmares of his curveball to Carlos Beltran at least once a week but this actually sets up as a decent match-up for him today.

Oakland will lose the DH heading into St. Louis and with a line-up that will likely only have 1-2 lefties in it, it sets up well for Wainwright’s splits as he has a 23.2% K rate and over 53% GB rate to RHB in 2019 which gives him some potential K upside with solid run prevention ability.

Wainwright has actually had some really strong outings recently with 6, 8 and 10 K’s in three of his last four games and after throwing 86 pitches against the Marlins in his first start off the IL, we could see him get back close to 100 pitches here tonight against the A’s.

Rather than pay up for Corbin or try to force in Mike Minor, Matthew Boyd or Charlie Morton, I think this is a slate where you pay down for pitching, work to find guys that can grab you 20 fantasy point nights and simply win it with your bats.

MLB DFS – Main Slate Bats:

This Phillies/Mets series has been a home run derby in the first two games with the two teams combining for 32 runs in the first two games and with near 90 degree temperatures and the wind blowing slightly out to RF tonight, this looks like a game stack spot that Vegas is highlighting with an early 10.5 IRT.

Jason Vargas may have a 3.75 ERA but his 5.25 SIERA tells you regression is coming and with only a 7.8% swinging strike rate, he simply does not have the ability to avoid contact which could be a major problem against the Phillies line-up that mashes LHP.

Every single hitter in their top 5 tonight has a .200+ ISO mark and four of the five have .270 + ISO marks against LHP which makes a Scott Kingery, Jean Segura, Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins and JT Realmuto stack an ideal way to attack not only one of the worst starters on the slate but also one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

Nick Pivetta on the other side of this game is giving up a .234 ISO to LHB with a .284 ISO to RHB and there are two Mets hitters that I think we run this game stack back with – Pete Alonso and Michael Conforto. Conforto has a .294 ISO mark against RHP this season while Alonso has a team high .313 mark and with both hitters sporting 40% plus FB rates and 40% HC rates – this becomes a great two-man mini stack in what could be another home run derby here tonight.

MLB DFS – Main Slate Breakdown and Sample Lineup:

Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build. 

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

SP: Zac Gallen

SP: Adam Wainwright

IF: Scott Kingery

IF: Jean Segura

IF: JT Realmuto

OF: Bryce Harper

OF: Rhys Hoskins

OF: Mike Trout

UTIL: Michael Conforto

UTIL: Pete Alonso

Slate Overview: Bats, bats and more bats. All the bats and then some more bats.

Outside of super chalk Patrick Corbin, there is not a single arm I feel compelled to prioritize so I think this is a slate you work backwards and get the bats you want first and then move to pitcher. Gallen is the arm I have my eye on the most because of his high K pedigree and the leverage you get off everyone taking Corbin in this game while to be honest, I kind of backed into Wainwright as an SP2 in the hopes he gets me around 20 fantasy points versus a right-handed heavy A’s lineup that loses the DH.

Enjoy these two slates and get in that free roll – we will see you back here Thursday!

Stay tuned to fantasy CPR for all the latest MLB DFS news and analysis across FantasyDraft, FanDuel and DraftKings each and every day!