MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Wednesday, 6/26 – Corbin Copy

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Wednesday, 6/26

Welcome back to this Wednesday edition of the MLB DFS Pitching Primer! I’m Thunder Dan and I’ll be covering pitching for MLB DFS on all season long at FantasyCPR. I’m including both FanDuel and DraftKings pricing and will be covering my favorite pitching options for both sites.

Yesterday, Madison Bumgarner came through for me (and hopefully you) while Bieber and Allen were pretty decent, too. Chris Bassitt fell flat on his face as did his opponent, a rather chalky Jack Flaherty. I ended up using some Nestor Cortes Jr. on DK as my SP2 after we got word later in the day that he was going to be the main innings eater for the Yankees. All in all, it was a good day in picking pitchers.

"The goal of the pitching primer is to help you narrow down your pitching options for both your GPPs and cash games. Analyzing pitchers and pitching matchups is something I really enjoy and I hope to give you a detailed analysis of why I think each pitcher makes for a compelling cash or GPP play."

The primer is back for today’s split slate action on FanDuel and DraftKings. There are 15 games in Major League Baseball today with 6 games taking place in the afternoon and another 9 games in the evening. I don’t have time to break down every pitcher and every matchup, and you likely don’t have the time to read that much analysis anyway. I’m here to give you a place to start your research or at least trim down the list of pitchers to a more manageable number.

Since we have so many pitchers to choose from, I am going to go ahead and list all of our options on the next slide so we can have a big picture view of tonight’s pitching options.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: First Look

Here are tonight’s pitching match-ups. The home pitcher is listed second and the Vegas odds are listed in parenthesis when available. Remember that some pitchers have extremely large home/road splits.

Vegas lines and implied run totals can be tricky to navigate at times and they do change throughout the day, but they are certainly a great place to start your MLB DFS research. For cash games, I am often looking for large home favorites, while anything goes for GPPs.

Draftkings has the games chopped up into slates, with 6 games on the early slate and another 9 games on the main slate, while FanDuel has the early games broken down into two different smaller slates and an all-day slate, too.

Early Slate(s)

Reynaldo Lopez vs. Chris Sale (-340)

Trent Thornton vs. James Paxton (-260)

Jakob Junis vs. Trevor Bauer (-210)

Matt Strahm (-120) vs. Dylan Bundy

Tony Gonsolin (-135) vs. Taylor Clarke

German Marquez (-125) vs. Jeff Samardzija – R

Main Slate

Jason Vargas vs. Nick Pivetta (-140)

Mike Minor vs. Matt Boyd (-110)

Patrick Corbin (-145) vs. Zac Gallen

Daniel Mengden vs. Adam Wainwright

Dallas Keuchel vs. Yu Darvish (-120)

Tanner Roark vs. Jaime Barria 

Dario Agrazal vs. Framber Valdez (-250)

Wade LeBlanc (projected reliever) vs. Adrian Houser

Charlie Morton vs. Jake Odorizzi (-110)

It looks like we are getting most of the aces on the day slate. I’m going to try and tackle the entire slate all in one slide with my top cash and GPP pitcher.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Early Slate

Cash Games – Chris Sale (11.5k FD, 11.6k DK) vs. Chicago White Sox

There are several aces on this early slate and while Trevor Bauer and James Paxton are fine pitchers, they are not Chris Sale. Nor do they have the matchup that Sale has as he faces his old team, the White Sox.

Now narratives mean nothing to me, but stats mean everything. Sale is a massive -340 favorite at home and brings his 35% K rate into this game against Chicago and their 25% K rate. The White Sox have the lowest implied total on the slate, meaning Vegas is giving Sale the respect he deserves, and so should you! He’s the best pitcher on the slate and by far the safest bet for your cash games. Don’t get cute in cash, you’ll regret it!

GPPs – German Marquez (8.6k FD, 10k DK) @ San Francisco

I love Marquez both as a pitcher and a fantasy performer. He was one of my favorite players the entire second half of last season and he’s shown this season that it was no fluke as he is now the ace of this Colorado pitching staff. His ERA is up over 4 after a few rocky (no pun intended) starts over the last month, but his strikeout numbers are still solid.

He is coming off an excellent outing against a good Dodgers offense in which he shut them down over 8 innings while striking out 8 hitters. He has a great matchup here against the light-hitting Giants, a team that he went the distance against back in April for a one-hit shutout with 9 strikeouts.

Other GPP Options:

Dylan Bundy (7.3k FD, 7.1 DK) and Matt Strahm (7k FD, 6k DK)

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Cash Game Ace

Patrick Corbin (9.8k FD, 10.6k DK) @ Miami

Somehow Corbin is only the third most expensive pitcher on FanDuel and second most expensive on Draftkings. It could be due to the fact that he went through a rough 3-game stretch against San Diego, Cincinnati, and Chicago I suppose. Regardless, he bounced back nicely in his last start against the Phillies and now gets the best matchup of any pitcher on the main slate against the Marlins on the road.

Miami has the lowest implied total on the main slate and continues to be one of the worst teams offensively in baseball.  Attacking them with a lefty is a little more risky than usual as they are mainly right-handed, but Corbin is hardly just any lefty. He has a 26% K rate this year and a 14% swinging strike rate. As long as he’s throwing his slider more often, he’ll be in good shape and will have a shot at racking up strikeouts against this Miami team.

Even without double-digit strikeouts, this spot is exploitable and Corbin has done it before. Back on May 25th, he tossed a complete shutout against Miami allowing only four hits and a walk and struck out only 5. I’m looking for a “Corbin copy” of that performance tonight from my top pitcher on the board.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Top GPP Pivot

Matt Boyd (9.4k FD, 10k DK) vs. Texas

Boyd has come back to earth a little since he started off red hot earlier this season. He’s hit a rough patch lately, allowing 15 earned runs over his last 22 innings. There are some good signs, however, for him going forward in that he is still missing bats at an elite rate with a 30% K rate on the year and a 13% swinging strike rate. And even in those last four starts in which he’s allowed more runs, he still struck out 30 hitters.

So I am jumping on Boyd here in what feels like a buy-low situation. He’s still got the potential to post a high strikeout total and faces a team in Texas that can be exploited by lefties. The Rangers carry a 23.5% K rate against lefties this season and most of their best hitters are from the left side. Boyd is much tougher on lefties and will have the platoon advantage over most of this Texas lineup tonight. It’s not a safe spot, but one that carries some upside. I’m a Boyd believer!

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Cheap Arm/SP2

Zach Gallen (7.8k FD, 7.1k DK) vs. Washington

This youngster’s minor league numbers were so good at AAA that he ended up being chalky in his MLB debut against the Cardinals last week. He was solid, but not spectacular in that start, going five innings and striking out six Cardinals while allowing only one run.

I wonder how many DFS players will come back to Gallen tonight in a tougher spot against the Nationals. The good news is that his price stayed low and he’s pitching at home, in a much more pitcher-friendly environment than most MLB stadiums.

I saw nothing in his first start that will keep me from going back to him tonight. I tend to give the advantage to the pitcher in these situations where a team has never seen them before or had much of chance to scout them. The matchup may be difficult, but the price is right on Gallen and I’m willing to roster him again tonight to see if he can continue his success at the big league level.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Cheap Arm/SP2

Framber Valdez (7.7k FD, 6.9k DK) vs. Pittsburgh

Valdez is holding down the fifth starter spot for Houston right now and was pitching really well in that role before running into the buzzsaw that is the Yankees lineup in his last time out.

He pitched mainly out of relief for most of the season so far and this will be only his fifth start. However, he is stretched out and has pitched as many as 7 innings in a game recently. The only red flag I see is a 10% walk rate, but that may be less of an issue than usual against a Pirates team that does not walk much tonight.

Vegas loves Valdez and the Astros tonight and I like picking on my beloved Pirates with lefties. They can be a tough team to figure out on many nights, but I certainly want some shares of Valdez here at this price and in this matchup. He has the best groundball rate on the slate (60%) and some solid win equity with his offense getting healthy behind him and offering run support.

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Cheap Arm/SP2

Wade LeBlanc (6.8k FD, 5.8k DK) @ Milwaukee

LeBlanc will be coming into the game as the projected reliever tonight, as Seattle has been using him in that role recently and more teams continue to copy the trend started by the Rays last year. He’s enjoyed some success since moving into this role, pitching well in four of his last five appearances.

His overall numbers still look bad as he carries a 5.42 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, but you can’t ignore the fact that he’s pitched really well a number of times this year. To be clear, he’s less of a FanDuel play for me since he won’t qualify for a quality start and he’s a full 1000 dollars more over there. But as an SP2 on DK, he’s going to be in play for me at that price.

The matchup with the Brewers will scare many away, but the Brew Crew has been running cold lately with the bats, ranking 20th in wOBA and WRC+ over the last 14 days. They’ve also been slowed down by lefties fairly often recently with pitchers like Logan Allen, Joey Lucchesi, and even Marco Gonzales last night. It’s a large field GPP play only, but I like LeBlanc tonight, call me crazy!

MLB DFS Pitching Primer: Rankings and Review

This is where I give you my final rankings for both cash games and GPPs. Remember, rankings for cash are based on safety, while rankings for GPP are based on their ceiling and point-per-dollar upside.

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Remember on DK, I prefer to pay up for at least one high-priced pitcher in cash and on FanDuel I prefer to pay up in cash more often than not. Chris Sale and Patrick Corbin are both clear cut options on each slate, especially on a one pitcher site like FanDuel.

On DK, my preferred cash game pairing for the main slate is going to be Corbin-Valdez, while my favorite GPP pairing will probably be Gallen-LeBlanc to get ALL the bats I want.

If you play mainly on FanDuel try not to spread your ownership out too much among different pitchers guys, otherwise, you are probably hurting your chances at winning a GPP by getting the right stack with the right pitcher.

Early Slate

1. Sale
2. Marquez
3. Bundy
4. Strahm (SP2 on DK only)

Cash Rankings

1. Corbin
2. Minor
3. Boyd

GPP Rankings

1. Gallen
2. Valdez
3. LeBlanc

Thanks for reading the MLB DFS Pitching Primer and be sure to come back for more great FantasyCPR content for MLB and all other sports! Good luck