DraftKings MLB Picks June 28: Aint nothing but Hamels
The Yankees and Red Sox are on their way to London, but the other 28 teams are all in action for our main DraftKings MLB tournaments. We have a couple of aces, a few disguised as aces, and a surprisingly strong middle tier that makes us think about fading said aces. Let’s get started….after the weather, of course!
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Rain: Baltimore(very slight), Miami(retractable roof), Milwaukee(retractable roof), Houston(very slight)
Wind: 12 mph out to center in San Francisco, 12 mph out to left in Chicago, 14 mph crosswind in Detroit, 12 mph out to right in Toronto.
Hot and humid: Cincinnati, Miami(if roof open), Houston(if roof open).
The only real question is whether they will play with the roof open or closed in Miami and Houston. I would guess closed in both, which doesn’t provide and boosts to bats and should help pitching.
I had too much Peacock on the early slate, and the Coors fade bit me in the main slate. I did get a solid win in the night only on the back of Alex Young and the Arizona offense to still come out a touch ahead.
These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on, and we all attack the slate from different angles.
DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:
Cole Hamels ($9,900): If you think Hamels at Wrigley is a thing, get a load of this: Hamels is 4-1 with a 2.12 ERA in seven career starts at Great American Launching Pad. It’s also worth noting that Hamels has a 1.00 ERA this month. It should also be noted that this version of the Reds is only hitting .231 against Hamels in 91 at bats with three homers, six runs, and 20 strikeouts. Hamels actually has the best BvP of tonight’s upper tier, and honestly, this is about as far up as I’ll go. All carry some sort of risk, and I think people are going to avoid Hamels because of the right handed power and the hitter’s park, but GABP is more friendly to lefties. The platoon splits will take care of that.
Mike Clevinger ($9,600): For you risk takers, we have a special one here. Clevinger was rolled by Texas in his return last week. His prize now is Baltimore. Now, this has little to do with the Orioles and a lot to do with the weather. In the summer, Baltimore is one of the more hitter friendly parks. The good news for Clevinger is that the Orioles are dominantly right handed and strike out a lot. Clevinger is worth using for the strikeouts alone.
Merrill Kelly ($9,100): Kelly’s poor outing against the Rockies has soured some on him, and I totally get it. That said, Kelly racked up 23.9 DraftKings points on the Giants last week. He picked up 20 on them the first time around, so it seems pretty safe to say that Kelly’s getting 20 against the Giants again tonight. The Giants only have two runs against him in those two games. Kelly’s numbers don’t really stand out, but they are very solid in a night with a lot of pyrite hanging around.
Yonny Chrinos ($8,400): Chirinos has been very consistent this year, which is something that eluded him last year. Looking at the number on Chirnos – home/road, game logs, metrics, etc. – all of it is solid. That’s what you’re getting from Chirinos. Solid. For that reason, I probably prefer him in cash games. I don’t see a ton of upside against Texas. This team hits righties better, but I don’t see Chirinos getting knocked around. That doesn’t really happen anymore.
Danny Duffy ($7,200): The Blue Jays are showing signs of life at the plate, and Duffy is still about as inconsistent as they get. Still, there is plenty of strikeout potential here. Duffy has a career 3.75 ERA at Rogers Centre, which is lower than his mark in his own park. The price is right. The strikeout potential is here. What more could you want?
Vince Velasquez ($7,000): Velasquez has certainly had his issues this year, but not with the Marlins. He has faced them twice and racked up 35.2 DraftKings points, allowing just two runs in 11 innings. His last start was against this same Marlins team in which Velasquez put up 18.7 DraftKings points. That was in Philly. Marlins Park is better for pitchers anyway, so we could see Vince hit 20 here.
Eric Lauer ($6,200): Lauer’s numbers don’t jump off the page, but he does have a 2.70 ERA in eight home starts this year. That’s plenty good enough to take a crack at a struggling offense with, especially when you consider the price. Lauer has only faced the Cardinals twice and they did get to him a little. However, the price is right, and I trust Lauer’s home splits more than anything about Wacha.
Michael Wacha ($5,900): It says something that the Cardinals haven’t brought up Alex Reyes to replace Wacha. Honestly, Wacha has been solid since his return to the rotation. The Mets knocked him around a little, but he handled the Angels and Marlins. The Padres have a ton of power, but they strike out a lot. San Diego is only hitting .204 in 49 at bats with three runs and 11 strikeouts. Sure, Wacha is probably going to give up a couple of runs, but so long as he hits double digits, which seems likely, he’s a solid punt.
My picks: Velasquez, Lauer, Rockies stack; Hamels, Velasquez; Hamels, Lauer; Kelly, Chirinos
DraftKings MLB Stack Options:
Washington Nationals vs. Daniel Norris:
Just when I think that Norris is getting back to a solid state, he gets blown back into the stratosphere. I don’t blame the Tigers for letting him go seven innings. Why waste the bullpen, right? That just means more chances for the Nats to tee off, and they get the DH in this one. This is a dream spot for Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner. Victor Robles and Michael Taylor as well. Juan Soto hits lefties well enough to put him out there. To me, Kendrick looks a little overpriced, so I will probably go with a value righty instead.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chris Archer:
Who’s worse: struggling offense or struggling pitcher? We’re about to find out. I give the offense the edge here. Archer has allowed nine homers and 19 runs in only 111 at bats. Ryan Braun is the only starter that has not homered against Archer. Travis Shaw is 6-17(.353) with two of the homers, but he was exiled to AAA in favor of Keston Hiura. Hiura is a little expensive, but he slugged five homers in a couple of weeks earlier this year. Braun and Jesus Aguilar are the only ones I would avoid here. Everyone else is fair game.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Jhoulys Chacin:
Did you guys watch the Pirates against Houston? They destroyed their entire pitching staff. That raking should continue against Chacin. The Pirates have four homers and 15 runs in 100 at bats so far. Corey Dickerson is a must play tonight. He is 4-16 with two homers and five RBI against Chacin. Josh Bell and Jung Ho Kang have the other homers. Starling Marte and Adam Frazier have both hit Chacin hard in the past. I don’t know that I want to pay up for Kevin Newman, but everyone else in in play.
Minnesota Twins vs. Carson Fulmer/White Sox Bullpen:
This is more an attack on the bullpen as a whole than Fulmer himself. Fulmer has been good once through the order, but the bullpen behind him is rather shaky. This Twins team has lots of power and hammers righties. Max Kepler, Rosario, and Polanco are the top targets here. Nelson Cruz is firmly in play for the power potential. Same with Sano. For those of you looking for salary relief, Jason Castro could be the way to go.
Colorado Rockies vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu:
You know a stat correction is coming, right? Ryu’s 1.27 ERA isn’t going to last all year. He gave up three runs to the Rockies in L.A. last week, but only one was earned. The Rockies are hitting .337 with five homers and 20 runs in only 101 at bats. Arenado has three of the homers and eight of the RBI, so lock him in! Mark Reynolds and Blackmon have the other homers. Ian Desmond is 4-7 with four runs and three RBI. Another dirty little secret: Ryu has a 7.56 ERA in four career starts at Coors Field.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Antonio Senzatela:
Senzatela handled the Dodgers in L.A. last week, but he has a 6.21 ERA in Coors Field this year. This is the place to go after Senzatela. The only question is how much do you want to spend doing so? Alex Verdugo is pretty reasonable yet. So is Matt Beaty. I don’t know that I can justify paying $6,000 for Bellinger (which is more than six pitchers) or $5,600 for Joc and Max Muncy. None of them are bad plays. That’s just a whole lot of money. You could easily sink more than half your salary into this stack, then what do you do for pitching?
Los Angeles Angels vs. Mike Fiers:
The Angels are hitting .272 with seven homers and 24 runs in 136 at bats against Fiers. Honestly, I would pay the $5,500 for Mike Trout over any Dodger bat. Trout is 9-24 with three homers and nine RBI against Fiers. Pujols has homered off of him twice as well. Lucroy and Kole Calhoun have the other homers. I also like the price on LaStella and a newly returned Andrelton Simmons. The only one I would deliberately avoid is Justin Upton, who is just 2-16 against Fiers.
Oakland Athletics vs. Felix Pena:
Game stacks all around tonight! The A’s have hit Pena harder than anyone else in his career. They are hitting .386 in 57 at bats with four homers and 19 runs. 19! That means one of every three batters to the plate against Pena score! Mark Canha, Matt Chapman, Jurickson Profar, and Khris Davis have the homers. Piscotty has four RBI in seven at bats. Enjoy this affordable stack!
DraftKings MLB daily notes:
John Means has been the best Baltimore pitcher this year, and I like the guy. I really do. But no part of me wants to throw him out there with the way Cleveland is hitting. Jose Ramirez and Jordan Luplow are my top targets tonight, but I certainly can’t argue with Carlos Santana or Mercado either. I don’t think I want to stack against Means, but I do want some exposure, especially at these prices.
Reid-Foley can’t be as bad as Edwin Jackson, but if you’re rushing out to pay $8,300 for a guy with four major league innings under his belt on a full slate, there isn’t much I can do to help you. This is a good spot for Reid-Foley, and I would be all over him if we knew he was going five innings and were reasonably priced. Judging by his performance in the majors this year, I think I’m going to throw a few Royals out there. Merrifield is always the best option, but Lucas Duda is starting to come to life. I also like the power of Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier.
deGrom is solid all around, but nothing that says we need to pay up for him against the Braves. The Braves have nine homers against him so far. Freddie Freeman has three of those. Markakis has two. Josh Donaldson has two in just six at bats. There are plenty of things to like from the Braves side of this.
No one likes revenge stacks more than I, but I just can’t find five Tigers that I want to use. Harold Castro and Christin Stewart are probably my favorite targets here. Castellanos and Dixon are probably worth a look too, but Sanchez really is Jason Vargas. Living dangerously, but still cranking out quality starts.
Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins both homered against Eleiser Hernandez last week. Hernandez also has an ERA that is 2.5 runs higher at home. I like both of them and maybe a helping of Segura or Jay Bruce here.
For whatever reason, the White Sox have hit Jose Berrios hard. The 3.80 ERA on the South Side isn’t horrible, but it also isn’t worth paying top dollar for. I want a couple of White Sox to leverage ownership. James McCann is 5-11 with two homers and a whopping seven RBI against Berrios already. Yonder Alonso, Leury Garcia, Yolmer Sanchez, and Abreu have all homered off of Berrios. Eloy can’t be far behind, right?
You have to have a strong stomach to throw Tom MIlone out there against the Astros. Sure, he handled the Astros the first time around, but that was before they were almost at full strength. Houston has Springer and Altuve, both of whom destroy lefties, where they didn’t the first time around. Alex Bregman and Robinson Chirinos look good as well.
That Padres power is going to be salivating against Wacha, but he has only allowed two homers in 16 innings since returning to the rotation. Still Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe are excellent plays and a good way to pivot off of Coors ownership.
The Diamondbacks have hit Shaun Anderson well, but Ketel Marte is the only one to hit a homer off of him. In fact, no Arizona player has more than one run or one RBI. You can’t really predict where everything is coming from, which means this is probably a stack or nothing else. Unless you are paying for Marte, that is.
DraftKings MLB one-off plays:
I’m not in any big hurry to go after Duffy tonight. I will have a one off of Vlad Jr. or Grichuk, but probably not in the same lineup. Lourdes Gurriel is probably the best Jays hitter right now if you are in the mood to pay up.
I think I want a little more than Soroka “felt good” during a bullpen session before I fork over that much for him. His brilliant road ERA has me thinking that he could shut the Mets down. Cano homered off of him in Soroka’s first start against the Mets and is an outstanding punt play. I would limit my exposure to that though.
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Lance Lynn has been solid and the Rays have been stagnant, but I’m not using him. Why? The 10.29 career ERA at the Trop has something to do with it. Kevin Kiermaier and Choi are my favorites for a one off. Austin Meadows is getting back down to affordable status as well.
Yeah, Wade Miley has been solid this year, but he has given up six runs in two games to the Mariners this year. He feels a little too expensive for a guy that doesn’t strike out a lot of batters. I’d rather throw Tim Beckham, who drove in four of those six runs, at Miley and be done with it.
I don’t really want to go heavy against Chirinos for the reasons I noted above. He’s solid. Joey Gallo and Choo are still very good plays. If I go after Chirinos, I wont do it on the cheap. Pay up if you’re going to take a shot at him.
It’s one offs or bust for me against Hamels. Votto and Dietrich have both homered off of him, but I would rather chase Jose Peraza (4-9 with a homer) or Puig here.
Sonny Gray was solid against the Cubs earlier this year, but there’s no reason to settle for solid on a full slate. Albert Almora and Addison Russell both homered against Gray in that first game. Cheap one off Cubs could be the way to go.
The one off of the night would appear to be JT Riddle. Riddle is 3-8 with a homer and four RBI against Vince Velasquez. The rest of the team has eight hits in 70 at bats with two RBI.
Kevin Pillar has the homer against Merrill Kelly for the Giants. If you are thinking of targeting the bargain lefties – Dickerson, Crawford, Belt, and Yastrzemski – reconsider. Those four are a combined 2-13. Joe Panik is 2-5 with two doubles though.
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