How can Manchester United replace Paul Pogba?

How do you replace a player as uniquely skilled as Paul Pogba? That’s a conundrum Manchester United could soon be confronted with.

It will be expensive. United is reportedly reluctant to sell Pogba, despite his apparent desire to leave, and will only consider offers way in excess of what it paid for him three years ago. Acquiring a superstar to fill his boots might prove more costly still, at a time when other areas of the squad are in desperate need of upgrading.

This is why United must reboot its thinking when the time comes to deal with Pogba’s departure. As many soccer clubs have already done, it needs to adopt a Moneyball approach to recruitment.

After three indifferent years in his second spell at Old Trafford, Pogba wants out. “I think for me it could be a good time to have a new challenge somewhere else,” the 2018 World Cup winner said recently when asked about his future.

Last season, Pogba produced the most productive league campaign of his career, scoring 13 goals – albeit seven via penalty kicks – and providing nine assists, enough to see him voted into the PFA Team of the Year by his peers. And he has been key to what meager success United has achieved in his time with the club.

While it’s fair to say Pogba hasn’t lived up to expectations since his $118m return to United from Juventus in 2016, inconsistent and often over-elaborate, he is still the most talented player United has, and by some distance.

That in itself makes the prospect of losing Pogba this summer daunting for United. When you consider the broad range of skills and attributes the 26-year-old brings together in his game, the task of replacing him begins to look close to impossible.

Put simply: there isn’t another Paul Pogba.

Touch, vision, the ability to drive through midfield with the ball at his feet or cut fading 40-yard through-balls, volleyed at hip height, to tear asunder the opposition – Pogba has it all in his locker, along with speed, strength and goal threat.

Part of the reason why Pogba has fallen short of the demands placed on him at Old Trafford is that he has been asked to be all things at once: scorer and creator; dictator of tempo, orchestrator of attacks and ruthless finisher.

Attempting to find an identikit of Pogba would prove a fruitless search while asking a newcomer to fulfill the 26-year-old’s role within the team would be setting them up for failure.

In Moneyball, Michael Lewis’ 2002 account of how Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane used data and analytics to help his team outperform its means, it is detailed how Beane dealt with the loss of star player Jason Giambi. Instead of bringing in another big-name – and thus big-salary – player to fill the void, Beane aimed to replace the aggregate of what Giambi brought to the team, adding three players who each offered a different piece of Giambi’s skillset.

By adopting a similar approach, United could cover for the sale of Pogba by carefully selecting players in the positions they already need to strengthen, with or without Pogba.

One of the positions United needs to recruit for this summer is central midfield, where Ander Herrera’s loss to free agency means they are low on numbers in this department and lack the energy and industry the Spain international was renowned for.

Sporting CP’s Bruno Fernandes is believed to be a United target. The Portuguese midfielder has spent most of his career in the kind of box-to-box role Herrera occupied at Old Trafford, producing comparable defensive numbers during his time in Italy with Udinese and Sampdoria. He has the tactical discipline to replace the outgoing Basque midfielder.

But Fernandes is also coming off a career-high campaign for goals and assists, scoring 20 goals and setting up another 13 in the Portuguese top flight last season. Even accounting for the higher level of competition in the Premier League and the likelihood of a slightly more restrictive role at Old Trafford, signing Fernandes would replace the goal power United loses if Pogba leaves.

Nemanja Matic’s immobility in the deepest midfield position has become a major issue for United, and reinforcement in this area should be a priority. This means identifying a player capable of shielding the defense, breaking up opposition attacks with timely tackles and interceptions, to a level above Matic’s current capability. But it is also possible for a player in this position to conduct play from deep and progress the ball through midfield, another of Pogba’s duties.

Highly coveted among Europe’s top clubs, Lyon’s Tanguy Ndombele would be the ideal defensive-midfield upgrade for United. He boasts better defensive numbers than Matic for last season, while also averaging more forward passes (20.53 to 18.63) and progressive runs (1.76 to 1.5) per 90 minutes than Pogba.

The final area already in need of attention in which United can in part replace Pogba is the right wing. Youngster Daniel James has already been signed from Swansea City, but someone ready to make a more immediate impact should also be sought for the position.

For this, United needs a player who can provide the natural width it lacked last season, while also offering the unpredictability and creativity in the final third that saw Pogba provide nine Premier League assists.

Already proven at the highest level thanks to Ajax’s run to the Champions League semi-finals, and likely to cost a fraction of the figure Borussia Dortmund would demand for Jadon Sancho – United’s supposed preferred attacking target – David Neres has everything United needs.

Although naturally left-footed and capable of playing on either flank, Brazilian winger Neres has spent most of his two and a half seasons with Ajax on the right side of the attack. He has the pace, trickery, and invention of a classic winger, as well as the ability to press diligently when out of possession, a must-have in the modern game.

In terms of creativity, Neres delivered eight assists in the Dutch league last season, one fewer than Pogba’s Premier League total. But Neres averaged more assists per 90 than Pogba (0.32 to 0.22) as well as producing a higher average for expected assists (which measures the likelihood a given pass will result in a goal), with 0.19 per 90 to the Frenchman’s 0.13.

United’s transfer strategy has been widely criticized in recent years, with few success stories and a plethora of expensive missteps since legendary manager Sir Alex Ferguson retired in 2013. Its methods are ripe for revolution.