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Dae’s Run Line Plays: Baseball Betting Preview for June 28th 2019

By Daeshon Underwood

ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - MAY 20: Miguel Sano #22 of the Minnesota Twins is congratulated in the dugout after hitting a three-run homerun during the eighth inning of a game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on May 20, 2019 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA - MAY 20: Miguel Sano #22 of the Minnesota Twins is congratulated in the dugout after hitting a three-run homerun during the eighth inning of a game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on May 20, 2019 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /
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CHICAGO, IL – APRIL 27: A overall shot of the scoreboard showing the postponement of the game in Baltimore because of riots before the game between the Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates on April 27, 2015 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images) Run Line /

Dae’s Run Line Plays: Baseball Betting Preview for June 28th 2019

My life this season has been ruined by closers. That was very apparent in my last article. We had a run line sweep going until both the Yankees and the Indians blew the lead in the 9th. Some of these closers are just getting a blown up game after game.

Just look at yesterday when Edwin Diaz gave up 5 runs in the 9th blowing a 2 run lead against the Phillies. When I’m looking into run lines from here on out I will be taking the bullpen ERA/closers into account for sure.

That’s the easiest mistake to make when betting the run lines only. Failure to take into account the bullpens is taking a big piece of the equation away. You wouldn’t bet the Orioles based solely on their starting pitching, right? Bundy and John Means have been solid, but a historically bad bullpen has the Orioles getting busted across the lines. The same principle applies to good teams.

We have a great 14 game slate today so it should be easy to max out on value. #RunLineUpside

Dae’s Run Line Plays: Baseball Betting Preview for June 28th 2019

Cubs @ Reds 7:10pm

Speaking of closers, the Cubs just got one of the best in the league. Craig Kimbrel already has one save in one try against his original team (Braves). The Cubs desperately needed a closer and they won the Kimbrel sweepstakes.

The Cubs are projected to pitch Cole Hamels (6-2 2.92 ERA) who has been phenomenal all season only allowing a .219 batting average to lefties to go along with a .055 ISO. He is set to face off against the Reds who hold the 25th batting average in the league. The Reds are also much better against right-handed pitching. The only bat I am worried about here is Saurez.

On the other side of the mound, Sonny Gray (3-5 4.03 ERA) is projected to start. Gray is allowing a .265 avg to righties and only a .200 avg to lefties. He has surprisingly been very solid but this Cubs lineup is hot and has way too much power to let Gray shut them down. I love the fact that the Cubs are away here as well. That’s all the more reason to play the run line.

Cubs Run Line (-1) +112 @ DraftKings Sportsbook

MLB DFS
FanDuel MLB: ATLANTA, GEORGIA – APRIL 03: Centerfielder Ronald Acuna, Jr. #13 and second baseman Ozzie Albies #1 of the Atlanta Braves jump and high five after the game against the Chicago Cubs on April 03, 2019 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Mike Zarrilli/Getty Images) /

Dae’s Run Line Plays: Baseball Betting Preview for June 28th 2019

Braves @ Mets 7:10pm

My favorite pitcher in the league is pitching in this one. MIKE SOROKA (8-1 2.07 ERA). This guy is absolutely amazing and will win the Cy Young at least once in his career. He is allowing under a .91 ISO to both lefties and righties.

Also in a league that is breaking every home run record, he has only given up three home runs. Let’s not forget his best pitch, the slider, that has a 40% whiff rate. I love this kid.

The Mets are projected to pitch their ace Jacob deGrom (4-6 3.25 ERA). He has actually given up 2 runs in four of his last five starts. Surprisingly, lefties are getting on base against him a bit this year as he is allowing .260 batting average to them.

But what makes this pick easy for me is how good this Atlanta lineup is and how bad this Mets bullpen is. The Mets bullpen is 28th in the league allowing a 5.46 ERA. We saw how bad they were yesterday as I mentioned before. All the Braves need to do is drive up deGrom’s pitch count so they can get to this terrible bullpen. Once again I always love the away team for #RunLineUpside

Braves Run Line  (-1) +155 @ DraftKings Sportsbook

DraftKings MLB
MINNEAPOLIS, MN – JULY 9: Jose Berrios #17 of the Minnesota Twins delivers a pitch against the Kansas City Royals during the second inning of the game on July 9, 2018 at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Hannah Foslien/Getty Images) /

Dae’s Run Line Plays: Baseball Betting Preview for June 28th 2019

Twins @ White Sox

The Twins have been one of the biggest surprises of the season. They have already reached 52 wins and it is not even July yet… absolutely insane.

Many thought they were early season flukes but they have firmly confirmed themselves as legit. Today they have their best pitcher on the mound to accompany their #1 batting average in the league. Jose Berrios (8-3, 2.84 ERA) will be tossing the leather in today’s game. He has had at least 6 strikeouts in four of his last five games and has only allowed over two runs once in those five.

The White Sox bats do not scare me at all, especially with Berrios on the mound. With this all-star lineup behind him, as long as he can keep pitching how he has all season the Twins should take it down easily. The White Sox pitcher is still TBD, but as long as it isn’t Giolito, the Twins are a lock for me.

Next. MLB DFS value plays June 28th. dark

Twins Run Line -1.5 (TBD)

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