Main DraftKings MLB Picks June 29: I’m Thinking Greinke

There are six games left for our “main” DraftKings MLB tournaments tonight, but there are aces tonight where there was only one de facto ace on the early DraftKings MLB slate. How do we afford this and Coors? The short answer is we don’t. We have to pick and choose the right balance of value and aces/hitters. The weather report could help us out.

DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

Justin Verlander ($12,000): I don’t really think Verlander is worth this price, especially when looking at the Dodgers against Gray. However, there are enough values to do a mini Dodger stack with Verlander. Verlander’s strikeout upside is far above anyone else on the slate, and he has good home numbers. Verlander has a 2.09 ERA in six home starts this year. He has also racked up 55.6 DraftKings points in two starts against Seattle. You have to use Verlander in cash games, and I think he’s great for GPP’s too. Just realize everyone else thinks so too.

Zack Greinke ($9,500): Greinke has decent numbers against the Giants. They are only hitting .214 with six homers and 17 runs in 215 at bats with 46 strikeouts. Nothing that jumps off the page, and we want that when paying this much, right? Well here you go. Greinke is undefeated in seven career starts at AT&T Park (5-0). On top of that, he has a sparkling 1.37 ERA there. Yes, that pretty much qualifies Greinke as an ace tonight.

Middle Tier:

Chris Paddack ($8,300): The Cardinals offense is ice cubes right now, and Paddack has a 2.50 ERA in six home starts. Paddack did well against the Cardinals the first time he faced them, holding them to one run in 3.2 innings before hitting his pitch limit. However, Paddack is routinely let go 85-90 pitches lately, so he should last five innings. He can do a lot of damage in that time, especially against an offense that is struggling at the plate.

Dakota Hudson ($6,900): Hudson’s first few road starts were terrible, but he has pitched well just about everywhere over the last two months or so. Hudson has a 2.48 over his last ten starts and is holding righties to a .208 average this year. The Padres have power for days, but almost all of it is from the right side and they strike out a lot. There is nice potential for Hudson here tonight. He has a really good shot at 20 DraftKings points. At this price, that’s a huge win.

Bargain Pitchers:

Brett Anderson ($5,700): Anderson is boring as hell. He’s a junkballer with little life in any pitch, but you know what? It works in today’s MLB. Anderson blanked the Angels for six innings en route to 22.5 DraftKings points the first time around. The current Angels are only hitting .156 in 64 at bats with just one homer and three runs to go with eight strikeouts. Anderson isn’t going to do anything to wow us, but I would bet he gets a dozen or so DraftKings points. I’ll take it.

Yusei Kikuchi ($4,800): Well, he’s free. Kikuchi has certainly taken his share of lumps this season, and it could certainly happen here. However, the Astros haven’t really fired on all cylinders yet. If you have stock in Tums or a bottle of Pepto handy, go for it. If Kikuchi gets you double digits, you’re ahead of the curve with low ownership. If he gets his ass beat, well, at least one ace will as well. You can pretty much guarantee that lately.

My picks: Greinke, Paddack; Greinke, Hudson

DraftKings MLB Daily Notes 6-29:

Yeah, Jon Gray is better at home. So what? The Dodgers are one team he can’t solve. He has a 4.98 ERA in 12 career starts against the Dodgers. This version of the Dodgers is hitting .342 with five homers and 14 runs in just 79 at bats. Both Joc Pederson and Max Muncy have homered off of Gray twice. Verdugo has the other. Cody Bellinger is 8-11 against Gray, but miraculously hasn’t homered off of him. Spend up on Dodgers tonight. They’re worth it.

The luster has worn off of Jordan Lyles, especially against the Brewers. They are hitting .309 with two homers and 17 runs in just 94 at bats. Thames and Moose have the homers. Grandal has five RBI. Ryan Braun has four. The one guy that has not hit him well is Yelich (1-9). Most of the rest are in play though.

Swallowing swords. Walking on hot coals. Chugging a bottle of Jack Daniels straight a la John Belushi in Animal House. Those are a few things I would rather do than use Brandon Woodruff against the scorching hot Pirates. Woodruff has given up nine runs in ten innings over two games against the Pirates, even when they weren’t crushing everything. Kevin Newman and Starling Marte both homered against Woodruff this year. Elias Diaz has four RBI against him.

Before you go all crazy on Kikuchi for the price, remember he’s that price for a reason. George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman are all elite plays tonight, especially when you consider the price on Altuve. You could take a shot with a cheap Jake Marisnick too if you need the cap relief.

Drew Pomeranz has given up seven runs in 7.1 innings over two starts to Arizona this year, so forget that his ERA is nearly six runs lower at home. It’s still 4.11. I’m completely out on Pomeranz. The strikeout upside isn’t worth it. I would much rather throw Ketel Marte or Adam Jones in there as a change of pace to the Dodgers stack. AT&T isn’t usually a place to stack, but it could be an exception for Arizona tonight.

DraftKings MLB One off plays:

If you want to buck Greinke’s trend at AT&T Park, both Brandon Belt and Evan Longoria have hit two homers off of him. Good luck! I wont be joining you. However, the perpetually cheap lefties Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik have each homered against Grienke. I may use them as a one off somewhere.

I’m not going after Brett Anderson. Seriously. His track record against the Angels speaks for itself. Hell, even Trout is only 2-12 against him. Kole Calhoun has the homer and two RBI, so I may use him or Ohtani. Beyond that, no thanks.

More from FanSided

Tyler Skaggs’ numbers against the A’s aren’t very good, but bear in mind that it’s pretty much only two guys that have hit him, and one may not be in the lineup. If Khris Davis can play after getting hit by a pitch on Thursday, I’ll have him in every lineup. Davis is 9-21(.429) with four homers and eight RBI against Skaggs. Marcus Semien is 10-24(.417) with two homers and five RBI. All of the righties in this lineup have hit well enough to go with an all righty stack, but it may miss. Skaggs has a 3.58 ERA at home this year.

There is no way I’m paying a premium for Kershaw tonight. He’s higher than Ryu was last night! Kershaw has a 4.57 ERA in 21 career Coors Field starts. The only stadium Kershaw is worse in was Shea Stadium in the one start he made there. He can’t improve upon that one, unfortunately, and the chances of him improving on Coors tonight are pretty minimal. Arenado is 16-55(.291) with three homers and seven RBI against Kershaw. Blackmon has homered off of him twice. Those are the two I would pay for on this side of things.

Dakota Hudson is pitching like Tim Hudson circa 2003 lately. He has been lights out! I would throw Franimal at him and maybe Manny Machado, but noting beyond that.

Marcell Ozuna is about the only Cardinal hitting his weight lately, and he barely made it over that. Do you think that’s going to change against Chris Paddack? Me either.

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