DraftKings MLB Picks June 30: Mad Max goes home

WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 26: Max Scherzer #31 of the Washington Nationals heads to the dugout after achieving his 2,500 strikeout against the San Diego Padres during the sixth inning at Nationals Park on April 26, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 26: Max Scherzer #31 of the Washington Nationals heads to the dugout after achieving his 2,500 strikeout against the San Diego Padres during the sixth inning at Nationals Park on April 26, 2019 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
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PHOENIX, ARIZONA – JUNE 19: Zack Greinke #21 of the Arizona Diamondbacks delivers a pitch in the first inning of the MLB game against the Colorado Rockies at Chase Field on June 19, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)

DraftKings MLB Picks June 30: Mad Max goes home

The Yankees and Red Sox get their own showdown over in London again. DraftKings made it a little different here. They put nine games in the early DraftKings MLB slate, which is the main slate, and it’s loaded. Unfortunately, they lopped off the Coors game and made it showdown only with only three late games. Why didn’t they put Coors on the late slate? I was all for this until they pulled that stunt.

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Rain: no major threats

Wind: 14 mph in from left in Baltimore, 12 mph in from center in Toronto,

Hot and humid: Baltimore, Miami, Cincinnati, Houston

I am guessing the roof will be closed in Miami and maybe Houston, which will neutralize that heat. The roof should be open in Toronto.

My Twins stack paid off in the afternoon even though the pitchers were a bust. I hit in the night lineup with Greinke and Paddack, but not having any Padres hurt the bottom line in that one.

These tips are based mostly on past performance. This is a nice tool for building a lineup, but should not be the only pieces of information you use. We have plenty of writers on here who give you relevant information no matter which site you play on, and we all attack the slate from different angles.

DraftKings MLB
HOUSTON, TEXAS – JUNE 07: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros reacts after striking out Richie Martin #1 of the Baltimore Orioles for his 14th strikeout in the seventh inning at Minute Maid Park on June 07, 2019 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

Max Scherzer ($12,300): I’m pretty sure I saw a Fear Factor episode about this. You fade Scherzer! No, YOU fade him. Scherzer has a 1.29 ERA in two starts against his former team and a career 3.32 ERA in 77 starts at Comerica Park. Yeah, YOU fade him, indeed. I will not be! This is a smash spot against a Tigers offense that makes some AAA teams look good.

Gerrit Cole ($11,900): The Mariners are only hitting .227 against Cole with 21 strikeouts and four runs in 75 at bats with no homers. Cole lit up Seattle for 33.1 DraftKings points in just six innings the first time this year. Mad Max probably has more upside, but if Cole goes deeper into the game, he can outscore Max.

Shane Bieber ($10,600): The weather for pitching is rough, but Bieber pitched a five hit shutout good for 56.3 DraftKings points against the Orioles earlier this year. While Bieber may not pitch another shutout, a quality start with strong strikeout totals seems to be his floor. That makes him worth the price.

Middle Tier:

Blake Snell ($8,000): This is only a play if you truly believe there is nothing wrong with Snell. He dominated the Rangers the only time he faced them, but that was last year. The thing that Snell has going for him here is that he has a strong 3.38 ERA in seven home starts. I think Snell is safe enough at home for this price, but I wont be playing him on the road for a while.

Marco Gonzales ($7,000): This is kind of a tough sell here. Gonzales has a strong 2.85 ERA in nine road starts and he held the Astros to two runs earlier this year, but the lack of strikeouts make him more of a risk. The Astros are hitting a cool .400 in 50 at bats against Gonzales too, but they still have not hit a homer off of him. Do you think Houston stays cold? If you do, Marco could be a nice option.

Bargain Pitchers:

Steven Brault ($6,200): Brault put up 15.5 DraftKings points on the Brewers in Milwaukee three weeks ago. The Brewers offense isn’t looking like they can put up much more resistance today either. Despite Brault’s below average numbers, he has not given up more than three runs in a start since May 12th. He’s not a strikeout guy, but for this price, we don’t really need him to be. Brault’s numbers are strong enough lately that he can easily get value for the price.

Aaron Sanchez ($4,400): Sanchez has not given up less than five runs since June 2nd, and that start was at Coors Field (he gave up four). However, his opponents since then – Yankees, Angels, Astros, and Diamondbacks – are some of the best hitting teams around. I actually like Sanchez a lot for the price. He isn’t as bad as those teams made him look.

My picks: Scherzer, Cole; Scherzer, Brault; Cole, Snell

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CLEVELAND, OH – MAY 16: Jason Kipnis #22 of the Cleveland Indians hits a solo home run off starting pitcher Dan Straily #53 of the Baltimore Orioles during the first inning at Progressive Field on May 16, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images)

DraftKings MLB Stack Options:

Cleveland Indians vs. Gabriel Ynoa:

Ynoa gave up eight runs (six earned) in just 3.1 innings against the Indians the first time around, and that was before summer hit. Jason Kipnis had a three run homer in that game. Carlos Santana and Mike Freeman each drove in a pair. Mercado drove in the other. Even without Ramirez, there are plenty of Indians to like today.

Washington Nationals vs. Jordan Zimmerman:

The Nats are hitting .360 with three homers and 12 runs in just 75 at bats against Zimmerman. Matt Adams is 5-9 with a pair of homers. Kurt Suzuki is 2-3 with a homer and two RBI, but he may not be catching a day game. Rendon, Adam Eaton, Ryan Zimmerman, and Brian Dozier have all hit Zimmerman well in the past. I would bet that Juan Soto would have had he ever faced Zimmerman.

Chicago Cubs vs. Anthony DeSclafani:

The Cubs have had his number. DeScalfani gave up four runs, including three homers, in just 3.2 innings against the Cubs earlier this year. The Cubs are hitting .266 with six homers and 17 runs in 109 at bats against DeScalfani. Rizzo has two of the homers. Javy Baez, Willson Contreras, Schwarber, and Bryant have all homered against him as well.

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DFS MLB: MIAMI, FL – MAY 19: Curtis Granderson #21 of the Miami Marlins rounds second base after hitting a home run in the eighth inning against the New York Mets at Marlins Park on May 19, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)

DraftKings MLB daily notes:

Brad Keller has been much worse on the road. Toronto is really heating up right now. They even got a few runs off of Homer yesterday. Cavan Biggio may be my favorite play here. Lourdes Gurriel is still one of the hottest hitters around, and Vlad Jr. is always worth a look

I’m not naive enough to think that Sanchez is going to pitch a shutout. I wouldn’t be all that shocked if he did get knocked around some. I don’t think he will, so I’m probably limiting my Royals to Merrifield, Hunter Dozier, and Jorge Soler or some combination of them.

I don’t think I can stack Rays right now, but I have no faith in Jesse Chavez either. Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, and Avi Garcia will be the ones I attack with. Avi is 5-9 with a homer and three RBI against Chavez so far.

It’s Jon Lester day, but he is Andrew Cashner or Jason Vargas. Stack against them, and they’ll troll you. The Reds have hit Lester well, but the damage is concentrated. Suarez has three homers and seven RBI in 34 at bats against Lester. Joey Votto has a homer and six RBI. Jose Peraza has driven in five. I can see the merits of using Senzel as well.

Arrieta has bad career numbers against the Marlins, and has given up six runs in two starts against the Fish this year. Part of that is skewed by Curtis Granderson‘s three homers and ten RBI against Arrieta, but I don’t know any sane person willing to use Grandy right now. Miguel Rojas and Neil Walker have each homered against Arrieta, and both just happen to be hitting well right now. A super cheap Starlin Castro is worth a punt too.

On the surface Trevor Richards looks like a solid play, but the Phillies got him earlier this year and he has been worse at home. However the Phillies still haven’t hit a homer against Richards, so I don’t know how heavily you want to go after this. Cesar Hernandez  is the best bargain, but Hoskins has good enough numbers against Richards to pay up for.

Gibson pitched in relief in the Twins’ 18 inning affair earlier this week, so Lewis Thorpe will make his major league debut. So why am I not attacking the Sox? Thorpe has a 5.71 ERA in 14 starts at AAA Rochester, and the Sox kill lefties. Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, and Tim Anderson are all very good plays here. I could make room for Jose Abreu too.

Moose, Yelich, and Jesus Aguilar have the homers against Steven Brault. Honestly, Yelich is the only one I’m even considering today, and I think we can to better for the price.

Zach Davies has allowed three or more runs in each of his last four starts. That isn’t anything damning, but when you consider the low strikeout rate and the high WHIP, Davies is not likely to get you value despite the 3.34 ERA. Jose Osuna has smoked two homers off of him already. Colin Moran has the other homer. Adam Frazier, Bryan Reynolds, and Starling Marte are all hitting .400 or better. There’s a lot of good options for the Pirates here.

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ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA – MAY 20: Jorge Polanco #11 of the Minnesota Twins reacts to flying out during the fifth inning of a game against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheimat Angel Stadium of Anaheim on May 20, 2019 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

DraftKings MLB one-off plays:

I don’t see any Oriole that I’m enamored enough with to throw at Bieber. He doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact and this team doesn’t make much hard contact to begin with.

The Rangers don’t have a ton of right handed power, and Snell has only allowed five homers in seven home starts. Actually, I think Elvis and Danny Santana are the only ones I’m marginally interested in, and neither really stand out. Texas remains the best place to punt at catcher though, especially if Mathis is in the lineup.

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Uh, no Tigers for me, thanks. I would rather lose my money on hitters that actually have a chance.

You can pay up for Giolito if you want, but using a pitcher against the Twins, especially at home, is usually a bad idea. Jorge Polanco has the only Twins homer against Giolito, but Kepler is 5-10 off of him. I don’t know that I would go any deeper than that though.

I don’t usually make a habit of targeting teams that haven’t hit a particular pitcher hard. For the price though, Yuli Gurriel looks like a steal. Alex Bregman has strong numbers against Gonzales as well.

I’m even less excited about chasing Cole than Scherzer. However, Domingo Santana has the only three Mariner extra base hits, all doubles, against Cole. He’s the best you can do.

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PHOENIX, ARIZONA – MAY 19: Robbie Ray #38 of the Arizona Diamondbacks delivers a pitch during the first inning of the MLB game against the San Francisco Giants at Chase Field on May 19, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)

DraftKings MLB late notes:

Robbie Ray does not have good numbers against the Giants overall, but he does have a 2.34 ERA in six career starts at AT&T Park. That makes me think Ray is worth the price. The strikeout upside is there, and he has 38.6 DraftKings points in two starts against the Giants so far.

MadBum is next, and though he has dominated the Diamondbacks overall, he wasn’t all that sharp against them earlier this year. Joey Lucchesi has a brilliant 2.70 ERA at home, and the Cardinals offense is still off. Way off.

The only pivot off of Lucchesi is Andrew Heaney. The A’s are hitting a miserable .128 in 47 at bats, but they do have three homers and six RBI. Bassitt and Mikolas are cheap for a reason, and I wouldn’t play either of them if you paid me.

So if we go with Ray and Lucchesi, that leaves us with just over $4,000 to fill each hitter slot. Kelly is the best catcher, but we need to gain some cash flow here. My favorite punt is Beau Taylor, though I’ll move up to Lucroy if he starts.

I’m going to load up on Angels against Bassitt. They are hitting .412 with 12 runs in just 34 at bats. Bour, Calhoun, and Trout are my favorites. I would use Upton or Shohei Ohtani, but I need to save room for Franimal.

If we do that though, that leaves us only $3,533 to fill the rest of the infield. Tommy Edman as a free space leading off is still a must. That opens up things a whole lot. Enough to plug in Machado if we choose.

However, I think I would rather finish off my Angels stack with Andrelton Simmons and LaStella instead of dropping down to a risky Longoria at third.

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