FanDuel MLB DFS Breakdown – 7/1/19: Milwaukee’s Got Something Brewin’
By Joe Metz
Welcome to my FanDuel MLB DFS breakdown for the 7/1 main slate! This article will help you condense your player pool and build your optimal cash and GPP lineups on FanDuel.
Happy Monday MLB DFSers and welcome back to my FanDuel MLB DFS breakdown for our first slate of July! It’s hard to believe that we are roughly 1 week away from the All-Star Break, but this season has been flying by.
Over the weekend, we saw a TON of offense, especially in the London series, where we saw a total of 50 runs in 2 games – 50!! If we can replicate that on a DFS slate tonight, you could imagine how high the scores will be.
While the odds of that happening tonight, or any other night, are extremely thin, we still have 5 games on tap for an extremely quiet Monday. Below are the games on the slate with the implied run totals (IRTs):
Chicago Cubs (4.9) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (4.7)
Baltimore Orioles (N/A) @ Tampa Bay Rays (N/A)
Milwaukee Brewers (4.9) @ Cincinnati Reds (5.2)
Los Angeles Angels (N/A) @ Texas Rangers (N/A)
San Francisco Giants (3.8) @ San Diego Padres (4.8)
As you can see, at the time of writing this article, only three of the five games currently have totals. The BAL/TAM game is likely contingent on who the official starter for TAM will be, as Charlie Morton‘s start was pushed back to Tuesday to give him some extra rest after back to back games with high pitch counts. It’s looking like Ryan Stanek is listed as the probable starter, and quickly becomes a player we can avoid.
Overall, this slate is pretty rough. There’s no “safe” pitcher and while the best options at pitcher are above $9k, there are virtually no viable value options below $3k on the slate that I feel comfortable with at first glance. This will make the slate interesting and we should be keeping tabs on lineups to see what types of value/opportunity arise.
Without further ado, let’s get to the breakdown!
FanDuel MLB – Top Pitchers
Cash: Logan Allen | SDP | $9,300
If you haven’t heard of Logan Allen yet, you should brush up and familiarize yourself, as the rookie flamethrower has done nothing but impress over his first two outings. He’s posted a 20% strikeout rate which is below average, but he’s compensated with his 57.1% ground ball rate. He’s also held righties to a 0.267 wOBA and 0.029 ISO.
The Giants are only implied for 3.8 runs (slate low) and struggle against lefties, posting a 0.292 wOBA and 0.125 ISO as a team to go along with a 22.2% strikeout rate. The K upside here may be rather limited, but this is as close to a “safe” play as I think we can get on this slate and I expect him to carry some cash ownership.
GPP: Mike Minor | TEX | $10,800
I would typically look to target Minor on a slate that’s so pitching deprived, but the matchup here is a bit daunting to look his way in cash games at $10.8k. He does, however, possess the highest ceiling on the slate. He’s posted a 24.4% strikeout rate with a 12.2% whiff rate on the season while posting a 43.8% ground ball rate.
The Angels only strike out 13.2% of the time against lefties this season, but Minor has been able to post at least 38 FDP in his last 5 games and pitch at least 8 innings in 3 of those 5. He comes with the highest ceiling on the slate, but know that he does carry more risk than normal given the matchup.
Honorable Mention: Adrian Houser (large-field GPPs only)
FanDuel MLB – Top Catchers / First Basemen
Cash: Yasmani Grandal | MIL | $3,600
The Brewers lefties are going to dominate this article and for good reason. Their matchup, Tyler Mahle, has allowed a 0.382 wOBA and 0.282 ISO against lefties this season with a sub-19% strikeout rate.
This bodes horribly against the Brewers, and Grandal, in particular, has a 0.398 wOBA, 0.284 ISO and a 45.2% hard contact rate on the season, giving him a heap of upside tonight.
GPP: Eric Hosmer | SDP | $3,600
I highly doubt people will opt to pay $3,600 for Hosmer with Grandal at the same price, making him a perfect leverage play. He’s scorching hot, posting 12 hits over his last 4 games, recording at least 18.7 FDP in all four of those outings.
His matchup, Jeff Samardzija, has allowed a 0.345 wOBA and 0.222 ISO against left-handed hitters this season, making Hosmer a top GPP option.
Honorable Mentions: Joey Votto, Ji-Man Choi, Eric Thames (perfect cash value)
FanDuel MLB – Top Second Basemen
Cash: Mike Moustakas | MIL | $3,700
Once again, we have another Brewers’ lefty occupying the top spot at their respective position. I hit on Mahle’s struggles against lefties on the previous slide (0.382 wOBA / 0.282 ISO), and Moose has rocked a 0.393 wOBA and 0.292 ISO against righties this season. On top of that, his expected wOBA of 0.402 only heightens his upside here.
GPP: Hanser Alberto | BAL | $2,700
The value plays here are rather bleak, so I would encourage you to fit Moose in cash games, but if you want to go a different route, Hanser Alberto should occupy the leadoff spot for the O’s at a cheap price tag.
While Ryan Stanek has been effective this season, Alberto is riding a hot hand after recording 11 hits in his previous 6 games and failing to reach double digits in FDP only once, in his 0-3 showing last game. He brings a nice power/speed combo and 5 AB potential at a cheap price tag, making him a viable play to differentiate your lineups.
Honorable Mentions: Scooter Gennett, Keston Hiura
FanDuel MLB – Top Third Basemen
Cash: Manny Machado | SDP | $4,200
Speaking of hot players, Manny Machado is scorching. He’s topped 21 FDP points in 6 of his last 8 outings and has homered 3 times in his last 2 games. Over that span, he’s posted a 0.535 wOBA and 0.625 ISO against righties with a 66.7% fly ball rate.
While Jeff Samardzija has only allowed a 0.307 wOBA against righties this season, he’s still only recorded a 20.0% strikeout rate and has given up a lot of hard contact (44.1%). Machado’s recent form should be a nightmare for Shark, giving him a really nice ceiling tonight.
GPP: Yandy Diaz | TAM | $3,600
Yandy Diaz is one of the most fun players to watch play baseball, as his mammoth frame has one of the quickest swings I’ve seen and he makes a ton of contact (only a 14.7% strikeout rate). He’ll have the pleasure of teeing off against Jimmy Yacabonis in what appears like it’ll be a bullpen game for the O’s. Yacabonis has been crushed by all batters this season but has allowed a 0.376 wOBA and 0.209 ISO to lefties, in particular, this season, putting Diaz in a prime spot.
Honorable Mentions: Kris Bryant, Renato Nunez
FanDuel MLB – Top Shortstops
Cash & GPP: Fernando Tatis | SDP | $4,300
This is a bit different, as there is only one SS listed, but frankly there is nobody that I would prioritize in either cash games or GPPs.
The entire Padres offense is scorching right now and if you can find the value at pitcher, the three mentioned make for a phenomenal stack. Tatis himself has topped 24 FDP in 5 of his last 6 outings and over that span, has posted a 0.655 wOBA and 0.667 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Much like Machado, Tatis’ hot bat should be a massive worry of Shark’s with his 44.1% hard contact rate allowed this season to righties.
Honorable Mentions: Javy Baez, David Fletcher
FanDuel MLB – Top Outfielders
Cash: Christian Yelich | MIL | $4,800
You had to see this one coming, the best lefty in the Brewers lineup and we saved him for last. In addition to Mahle’s struggles against lefties, which again, are a 0.382 wOBA and a 0.282 ISO allowed, Yelich may be his least ideal matchup.
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Yelich has posted a 0.497 wOBA and 0.399 ISO against righties this season with a 55.3% hard contact rate and an average exit velocity of 93.1 mph, 4.9 mph above league average.
He’s by far and away the top overall play on the slate and I would prioritize him in every single lineup.
GPP: Austin Meadows | TAM | $4,000
While Yelich is my top play of the slate, Meadows my be my guilty pleasure of the slate and for good reason. He’s posted a 0.410 wOBA and 0.246 ISO against righties with a 46.1% hard contact rate.
Jimmy Yacabonis has been brutalized by lefties to the tune of a 0.374 wOBA and ridiculous 0.294 ISO. He’s also given up a ton of fly balls (56%) and a lot of hard contact (EVavg of 94.3 mph). Meadows checks all of the boxes tonight and I plan to have a ton of GPP exposure and even try to get him into my cash lineup.
Value Options: Franmil Reyes, Kevin Kiermeier, Jesse Winker
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