MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – July 1 – Rays of Sunshine

Welcome to the Monday edition of MLB DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind MLB DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s MLB DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy baseball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Sunday’s MLB DFS action was all about pitching as the top four raw point plays were all starting arms including Max Scherzer, Shane Bieber, Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole all topped 30 fantasy points with Max/Bieber topping the slate with 40+ fantasy points each. With a Cubs/Reds stack that put up 14 runs built around two top end arms, it was a strong day for Picks and Pivots to close out the weekend!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your MLB DFS line-ups.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

MLB DFS – Monday Pitching Breakdown:

After a Sunday MLB DFS slate where pitching was the key to winning, we are met with a an underwhelming five game pitching slate where bats will likely be the priority for most. Mike Minor ($20.3K) is the lone ace on this slate and while I am a believer in the resurgence, a match-up with the Angels simply does not have the ceiling to warrant a $20K price tag on this slate.

Minor is not an elite K arm, with a 24.4% K rate on the season, and this Angels projected line-up has a paltry 14.4% K rate against LHP with two batters – David Fletcher (2.8%) and Andrelton Simmons (8.8%), who are two of the toughest bats to strike out in baseball this year when facing a lefty.

If you land on Minor in your builds with a cheaper stack you like then I have no issue taking the safer route here with easily the top arm based on talent, but with a low K match-up on deck, he would not be a priority spend of my cap space. Now, from a game theory perspective – if the expensive Brewers/Rangers stacks lead everyone to pay down for arms, then Minor could become a contrarian play on a five game slate.

On the other side of this game we have the team that strikes out the most in baseball against left-handed pitching in the Texas Rangers, which puts Angels LHP Jose Suarez ($16K) on our radar as a match-up specific play.

Suarez registered a low 20% K rate in AAA over the last two seasons and has a similar 21% K rate so far in the Majors this year which bodes well considering the Rangers 27.6% league leading K rate against lefties. With Hunter Pence on the DL and Asdrubal Cabrera scratched yesterday, you could also see a Rangers line-up missing two of its lowest K bats, which adds even more upside to this spot.

The issue for Suarez has been walks – both in AAA and at the Major League level, with a 10% walk rate or higher at AAA and now in the majors in 2019. The Rangers projected line-up only has an 8% walk rate against LHP which is middle of the pack in baseball and those walks have meant early exits for Suarez who just topped 90 pitched in his last outing against Toronto.

Ryan Yarbrough ($13.1K) is likely to serve as the bulk arm for the Rays today and while I normally am not a huge fan of using these “speculative” arms after an opener, this may be the slate to go this route. Facing an Orioles team with a near 25% K rate against LHP, Yarbrough has arguably the best point per dollar upside of any arm on the slate.

Yarbrough has the ability to work deep into games, going 6 or more innings in 5 of his last 8 outings including a 6 inning “relief” appearance against Oakland where he put up 18 fantasy points. On FantasyDraft where you are looking for the win versus the quality start, Yarbrough coming in as a bulk reliever actually works best in this format and with the price tag on him today, you will get all the bats you could possibly want.

MLB DFS – Building Our Bats:

While I expect the Rangers and Brewers bats to be popular targets today, the offense I have the most interest in stacking for GPP’s is going to be the Tampa Bay Rays.

Now, we do not yet have a confirmed starter for Baltimore but it is expected that it will be minor league arm Tom Eshelman followed by a brutal Orioles bullpen which makes this Rays stack one with massive upside that will not garner near the ownership of the Brewers or Rangers. Eshelman is a low K arm with a sub 20% K rate at the minor league level and his scouting reports document a fringe arm with underwhelming stuff that relies on control primarily – not exactly an arm I think we should be afraid to attack here today.

The top of the Rays order jumps out with three bats sporting .200+ ISO marks against RHP this season with Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham and Brandon Lowe all with tons of power but the reality is, the top 6 in this line-up all have 40% or higher HC rates against RHP, so expanding to a #6ManStack with Yandy Diaz, Ji-Man Choi and Avisail Garcia will give you a power heavy line-up to attack the Orioles staff with.

The really nice part about the Rays stack is you can stack 1-6 in this line-up for an average cost of $8.3K per player on FantasyDraft which gives you a path to stack a high-octane offense and still afford to grab someone like Mike Minor as an SP1.

The Brewers are likely the cash game chalk as the lefties in this line-up will be a priority spend for most against RHP Tyler Mahle in Great American Ballpark. Mahle has continued his struggles this season with lefties, surrendering a .282 ISO mark against lefties and all of Christian Yelich, Eric Thames, Mike Moustakas and Yasmani Grandal have .240+ ISO marks against RHP this season.

With the price savings at pitching and the cheaper tag on the Rays bats, you can easily mix and match a Rays/Brewers stack here if you are looking to go more balanced in your builds rather than planting your flag with one offense.

MLB DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

Please note – this sample lineup is meant to be illustrative only and should not be used as a plug and play build.

More from FanSided

• Thunder projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
• NWSL Challenge Cup news: Courage ruthless against Washington, Racing remain perfect
• 2023 Women’s World Cup: Ary Borges and Brazil showed the entire world what they are about
• Trea Turner’s rough season goes from bad to worse
• Brewers attempt to troll Elly De La Cruz backfires 456 feet

SP: Mike Minor

SP: Ryan Yarbrough

IF: Jeff Mathis ($3.9K)

IF: Brandon Lowe

IF: Ji-Man Choi

OF: Austin Meadows

OF: Tommy Pham

OF: Christian Yeloch

UTIL: Mike Moustakas

UTIL: Eric Thames

Slate Overview: While I did not set out on this slate to pay the premium for Mike Minor in a sub-optimal match-up, the fact that I can stack my two favorite offenses (Rays and Brewers) while still paying for him, makes this a viable route for both cash games and GPP’s. It is hard to argue that there is a safe route with pitching today so rather than take a risk on both arms, I think going Minor/Yarbrough gives you stability and enough salary savings to still let your bats carry you.

Enjoy this slate all – and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR and FanSided today where we have a BIG announcement on the way!

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR and FanSided each and every day for all the latest MLB DFS news and analysis!