FanDuel MLB Daily Lineups for the July 2nd Main Slate
By Matt Rogers
FanDuel MLB: Top Pitching Main Slate
One name I’d suggest crossing off your list of pitchers for the Tuesday night slate is Kyle Hendricks ($9,400). Yes, the Cubs hurler had a decent start to the season before hitting the Injured List. But the 29-year-old is having shoulder issues which concerns me.
Additionally, his strike-out ratio, a low 20.6%, is very inconsistent this year. While Kyle fanned ten Rockies hitters in Chicago, he only struck out four in 11.1 innings since. He threw a solid quality start with eleven K’s against the Diamondbacks in April, only to follow that up with ten hits and three K’s, giving up seven earned runs, against the same team in his next outing.
It may be related to the should inflammation, but Hendricks is one of your least reliable starting pitchers for this slate, and I’d argue he’s heavily over-priced against a low K-rate Pirates offensive squad.
All of that being said, for the same reasons I believe Hendricks will have very low ownership. We’re not the only one’s putting this obvious conclusion together. So, if you’re looking for a solid upside pitcher with a ton of risk for your GPP plays, he’s a decent move. The only issue is, he’ll limit your spending on offense.
Great, so we have about 30 more pitchers to look at, now that Hendricks is off the list.
Unfortunately, nine of the starting pitchers have a very good xFIP between 3.33 and 3.98 tonight. With the exception of Trevor Bauer ($11,600), every pitcher below that mark has too much risk to consider for this slate, with so many solid arms on the mound.
Bauer has also been inconsistent for the Tribe this season, but when he’s on, he’s one of your best options. For example, after fanning eight Tigers hitters in a complete game shutout win (61 FanDuel MLB points), he followed that up with a five run 12-point stinker against the same team.
But, then pitched 6.2 innings while striking out an amazing twelve hitters against the Royals, again earning the win and over 60 FanDuel MLB points.
He plays that same Royals team in Kansas City for tonight’s slate, but given his inconsistent swings, and history of now performing well against teams in the second consecutive outing, $11.6K seems like too high a price to pay for the risk associated with the pick.
Getting back to pitchers I don’t like; Mike Minor‘s ($10,800) price-tag makes absolutely no sense to me facing an Angels squad coming off a literally loss of a team mate with the lowest K-rate in baseball, at 17.2%. That’s another trap.
The more I look at these pitchers, the more traps I find. But, while there is decent risk in every pitcher pick for this slate, there are two I’m considering for Tuesday night.
Matthew Boyd ($10,000) is theoretically your best option. Considering pitchers with the best population of data, Boyd has the highest K-rate at 30.8%. His 1.09 WHIP is third lowest to Odorizzi and Morton. And, the match-up is juicy.
The Tigers are in Chicago Tuesday night facing a White Sox offensive squad tied with the Rangers for third highest strikeout rate in baseball, 25.5%. Speaking of the Rangers, Matt just fanned eleven of their hitters in his last outing. But, there lies the rub.
Boyd has given up four to five earned runs per game in his last three starts. After five starts in June, he gave up at least three runs in each outing. So, while you get a high K-rate out of this play, you also likely have to stomach a decent helping of runs eliminating your points.
Yes, Boyd is still a decent shot at over 40 FanDuel MLB points, but I think Patrick Corbin ($10,600) is the safer play.
Like the Tigers hurler, Corbin has given up a lot of runs in recent outings, 18 earned over his last five outings. But, in his last two, against the Phillies in D.C. and the Marlins in Miami, Patrick seemed to find his groove again. In his last 14 innings pitched, Corbin gave up only two earned runs, has two wins and quality starts, and 17 strikeouts.
Additionally, this is the third time Corbin is facing the Marlins this season. With a 23.9% K-rate, tenth worst in baseball, the Marlins have only managed to earn one run against Corbin in 16 innings. That includes 14 strikeouts during those outings.
Corbin is averaging over 50 FanDuel MLB points against the fish, and he threw his only complete game against the Marlins in Washington, D.C. earlier in the season. This is likely your best play at the position, and while he’s expensive, you’re starting off well with around 50 FanDuel MLB points in a pivotal position.