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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – July 3 – It’s in the Cards!

By Brian Tulloch

SAN DIEGO, CA - JUNE 30: Matt Wieters #32 of the St. Louis Cardinals is congratulated after hitting a two-run home run during the eleventh inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park June 30, 2019 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA - JUNE 30: Matt Wieters #32 of the St. Louis Cardinals is congratulated after hitting a two-run home run during the eleventh inning of a baseball game against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park June 30, 2019 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
BALTIMORE, MD – JUNE 15: Chris Sale #41 of the Boston Red Sox pitches during a baseball game against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on June 15, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Pitching Breakdown:

We have a 14 game MLB DFS slate here on Wednesday which excludes the Nationals/Marlins game at 6:05PM EST and Stephen Strasburg, but do not worry, we have a ton of pitching to choose from on this slate.

Before we jump in though, our friends at FantasyDraft have another $400 FREE ROLL for us tonight so get on in there and let’s build that bankroll.

Strikeouts are the name of the game in MLB DFS and tonight we have two of the best in baseball, specifically over the last month as Chris Sale and Walker Buehler take the mound. In the last 30 days, these two both rank in the top 10 in K’s as Sale leads all of baseball with a 38% K rate with Buehler not far behind with a 33% mark.

Sale walks into this game with double-digit strikeouts now in 9 of his last 11 starts which is basically putting him in “do not fade” territory at this point and while the price continues to rise at $23.3K on FantasyDraft – there is a 40-50 fantasy point ceiling here that few other players on the slate possess.

Interestingly enough, one of the teams he failed to reach double-digit K’s against in this recent run was the same Blue Jays team he faces tonight in Toronto and in fact, in two starts this season, Sale has failed to crack 20 fantasy points against them.

The “sliders against Toronto” narrative has been one around the industry for a few years now and with Sale throwing nearly 40% sliders in 2019, it would seem to push this match-up in his favor but only 2 of the batters in the projected line-up have over a 30% whiff rate against that pitch type.

So while there are surface metrics that may allow you to argue the fade, the other side of the coin is – who can you pivot to if you are not playing Sale? Well, the other option at the top is Walker Buehler who will take on the same Arizona team he just faced at Chase Field and struck out 11 batters on his way to 40 fantasy points.

Sale and Buehler are both massive favorite near -250 and not surprisingly, the Jays and Diamondbacks have the two lowest totals on the Main Slate which makes both arms cash game staples and priority GPP spends.

As I do probably more often than most – I like to make the argument to go with both arms on FantasyDraft as the case is simple – K’s are king and these are the two best strikeout arms on the slate.

The tricky part (as always) is MLB DFS has a salary cap so can we actually make a build work with Sale AND Buehler here tonight?