MLB DFS – Finding Our Value Stack:
For the third straight day, I am going back to the Tampa Bay Rays stack and I swear, I know other teams exist in baseball despite the fact that I have written this team up every day this week – but once again, the pricing – OH THE PRICING!
The Rays will be facing LHP John Means and the Orioles pen today and looking at the top 6 in tis Rays order, only two hitters are over $8K and we get some serious value plays with guys like Travis d’Arnaud and Willy Adams at around $6K/player.
Means will likely see 7-8 RHB in the line-up here today, which means (ha, see what I did there) he will be on the wrong end of his traditional splits where he is giving up more hard contact, a higher wOBA and his K rate drops to only 17%.
Means relies almost exclusively on his fastball/change-up to RHB and outside of Yandy Diaz, nearly all the RHB in this line-up profile to hit that pitch with power, sporting .175 or higher ISO marks including Tommy Pham, Adames and Mike Zunino who all have over .200 ISO marks against that pitch from lefties.
Yandy Diaz and Avisail Garcia are the two big lefty mashers in the heart of this order, with .257 and .202 ISO marks against LHP this season but the issue for them and really this entire Rays line-up is that they become GB hitters against southpaws – sporting a 46% GB rate versus only a 31% FB rate.
Now back to Means – the O’s lefty is a fly ball pitcher, especially against RHB, with a 45% fly ball rate versus only a 36% GB rate so this is a match-up where we can take a ground ball hitting team like the Rays and attack the fly ball tendencies of the opposing starter (with a bad bullpen behind him).