MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – July 3 – It’s in the Cards!

MLB DFS – Pivot Value Stack:

Now while the Rays pricing is enticing, the counter-argument to stacking them is that Means, a recent All-Star, has only given up more than 3 ER in one game this year so the ceiling could be capped a bit, meaning we need to dive into pivots – if we can find them.

The challenge in a Sale/Buehler build is that you only have just under $7K per player for your bats which means the stacking options at this price point are limited.

The one team that does fit the bill is the St. Louis Cardinals – a team with only TWO bats in their projected line-up over $7K which feels a bit odd to say considering they have a near 5 IRT and face off with Mike Leake in Seattle.

Now the Cardinals are one of THE coldest teams in baseball offensively right now, scoring 36 runs in the last 2 weeks which is the second lowest total in baseball, in front of only the Detroit Tigers while ranking bottom 3 in both ISO and HR’s in that period which is exactly why the price points have dropped to this level.

But here is the argument for them – it is Mike Leake on the other side of this game – a pitcher who is giving up over a .200 ISO to hitters from both sides of the plate with 40% or higher HC rates to both RHB and LHB with a 1.5 HR/9 to LHB and a 2.5 HR/9 mark to RHB.

Leake has made 17 starts this season and has given up at least 2 HR’s in 9 of those starts – basically if there was a match-up to snap out of this power funk for the Cardinals, this is it.

The reality is, even with Matt Carpenter and Marcell Ozuna on the IL, there is still upside in this line-up with guys like Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, Tyler O’Neill and Tommy Edman all with .200+ ISO marks against RHP since the start of 2018. With Leake’s reverse splits HR tendencies – loading up on the cheap RHB of St. Louis could end up being a cheap value stack that helps you land the top-tier pitching we want.