What is Sterling Shepard’s 2019 Fantasy Football outlook?

Sterling Shepard – 2019 Fantasy Football Outlook

Without a shadow of a doubt – the most shocking, controversial, and consequential story of the NFL off-season was the Giants decision to trade Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns.The move will be analyzed and criticized for years to come, but the only certain thing at this point is that Beckham’s departure creates a distinct void in New York’s offense and that is where Sterling Shepard comes in.

Days after the Beckham trade was formally announced, the Giants gave Sterling Shepard a 4 year, $41 million contract extension. The timing of Shep’s extension led many to believe he’d inherit Odell’s role as the primary offensive weapon in East Rutherford. Although Sterling’s role will expand in 2019, it would be crazy to expect Odell-type numbers from him this season. Even a top-25 finish in fantasy scoring seems overly optimistic.

This past season (the best of Shepard’s 3-year career), the Giants receiver was only the 30th-best receiver in PPR scoring. With Beckham missing the last four games of the season in 2018, we got to see a small sample size of what the post-Odell Giants might look like. Here are some very basic totals from those four games:

Sterling Shepard – 14 receptions for 234 yards and 1 touchdown

Saquon Barkley – 17 receptions for 119 yards (no receiving touchdowns)

Evan Engram – 22 receptions for 320 yards and 1 touchdown

Although Shepard was technically the “#1 receiver” with Beckham sidelined, he didn’t have the most receptions on the team. Not even the second-most. He was the 29th-best receiver for PPR in that short time frame.

Beckham commanded a massive 10.5 targets per game throughout his Giants career, and it’s fair to assume that some of those targets should now go to Shepard. But overall, it seems like the Giants will really be spreading the ball around this year.

They also added veteran receiver, Golden Tate – who, interestingly enough, finished one spot ahead of Shepard in PPR scoring last year (by less than one full point).The Giants also think that 26-year-old Cody Latimer could expand his role within their receiving corps.

In 2019, it feels like Shepard’s breakout season must be now or never. It’s easy to forget that Shepard is basically the same age (26) as Beckham and other veteran receivers like Davante Adams and Sammy Watkins.

Shep could have broken out in 2017 when OBJ missed all but 4 games. However, migraines and various injuries caused Sterling to miss significant playing time. Even when healthy, it felt like Shepard never really seized the moment – given the Giants lack of other offensive options. In 2017 their top running back was Paul Perkins, and Evan Engram was just a rookie.

For the sake of transparency, I should confess that I am a die-hard Giants fan. I’m even one of the crazy ones who thinks Dave Gettleman is a good GM. However, I’m not crazy enough to think that Sterling Shepard could be a true WR1 in fantasy this season.

In fact, I’d be super hesitant to even call him a WR2.

Deep down, I hope I’m wrong. I’d love to see Shep play 16 games this year and be a top-15 receiver. But I’m tempering expectations.

You can say what you want about Eli Manning‘, but even as his abilities decline, he can still be good enough to support a star fantasy receiver. He might not improve Shepard’s fantasy value, but he won’t necessarily hurt it either.

The problem for those bullish on Shepard is that the Giants offense will be A LOT different this year. Overall, it will be more balanced without Odell. Mainly, though, it will be Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley who lead the way.

Sterling Shepard is a fantastic football player and an extremely likable person. He’ll do a great job within his role – even if that role doesn’t entail being a target-monster or the big-play guy.

As a Giants fan, I won’t be mad if he proves me wrong. But for fantasy purposes, I’m reluctantly fading Shep in 2019.

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