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Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: Friday, July 12

By Matt McGarvey

CINCINNATI, OHIO - JUNE 19: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros throws a pitch against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on June 19, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OHIO - JUNE 19: Gerrit Cole #45 of the Houston Astros throws a pitch against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on June 19, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /
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Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: July 12, 2019

Tonight’s Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks slate features 13 games with, New York (7.1), Colorado (6.4), Houston (6), and Cincinnati (5.7), holding the best-projected team totals. With a handful of high-priced pitchers available, finding value will be imperative for success.
We’ll be aiming to highlight MLB DFS picks from the perspective of batted ball data, batter splits, line movement, and stolen base upside.

Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks: Standout Batted Ball Stats

Albert Pujols – DK $3600, FD $2700

Although Albert Pujols really hasn’t done much of anything lately, his batted ball stats would indicate that is may be good a, “buy low” time. In the last 15 days, his batted ball distance is up 2 feet, his hard-hit percentage is up 8%, and his exit velocity is up 3 MPH, over his yearly averages. While these aren’t anything crazy, if you look at how his price has dropped (priced in the $4000’s prior to the break), it would lead you to believe that there is value in Pujols tonight.

Derek Dietrich – DK $4200, FD $3300

Derek Dietrich is another batter who’s been struggling at the dish. Not only may he benefit from the time off, but his recent batted ball stats before the break lead me to believe that he was on the bad side of variance. In the last 15 days, his batted ball distance is up 28 feet, his hard-hit percentage is down 2%, and his exit velocity is up 6 MPH, over his yearly averages. Given the Reds’ projected team total Dietrich is very much in play tonight, at this price.

Batter Splits

Mike Trout – DK $5300, FD $4700

If you have the money to spend and are a fan of positive batter splits, look to Mike Trout tonight. Trout will face the righty, Mike Leake. Trout is much better against right-handed pitching, with a .491 wOBA split (.076 better than when facing a lefty) and a .388 ISO split (.155 better than when facing a lefty).

Line Movement

The Houston Astros will remain in Texas, to take on the Rangers again tonight, in a game in which Houston opened as -190 favorites. Since opening the line has moved a bit further towards the Astros, and now sits at -210. The total, on the other hand, has seen much more significant movement. It opened at 10.5 runs and is now down a full run, to 9.5. While things can be difficult to predict after the all-star break, Gerrit Cole is one of the standout pitchers tonight, especially on FanDuel. Cole has one of the highest K/9’s of any pitcher with 12.76. Combine this with Texas, who has the highest team strikeout average per game (9.98), and this could lead to a massive fantasy outing for Cole tonight.

Stolen Base Upside

Mallex Smith – DK $3900, FD $2800

Mallex Smith will have an added boost of stolen base upside, as he faces the righty, Taylor Cole. Cole will draw the start for the Angels and has allowed three stolen bases over the course of 19.2 innings pitched, this season. Smith has stolen 23 bases this season, the second-most in major league baseball.

Trevor Story – DK $5300, FD $4500

Story won’t have as much upside as Smith, but it is worth noting. Story will face the righty, Sonny Gray. Gray has allowed eight stolen bases over the course of 90.1 innings pitched. Story has stolen 12 bases this year, and given the Rockies projected team total, he’ll be worth considering.

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