FanDuel MLB daily lineups July 16th: Main slate

FanDuel MLB: Top Pitching Main Slate

If you’ve played a lot of MLB DFS over the last year, or have a season-long fantasy baseball team you’re running, then Walker Buehler ($10,000) is probably the most familiar pitcher to you on the starting pitchers list for FanDuel MLB this Tuesday evening.

While I generally like Buehler, and can see he’s starting to dominate as he did in the recent past, we’ve also seen a lot of inconsistency in Walker’s pitching over the past month. Buehler’s 27.4% K-rate is one of the best in this slate, but there’s risk pitching him against some pretty good left-handed bats in Philadelphia.

If I’m spending $10K on a pitcher, I want a slam dunk 50 to 60 points, and I don’t see that with Buehler on Tuesday night.

Another popular pick will be Lance Lynn ($9,800) and his red hot arm facing the Diamondbacks in Arlington, Texas. Many very good MLB DFS analysts, including several who write for FanSided Fantasy, will suggest Lynn as the top play.

Since May 21st, Lance has ten or more strikeouts in four of his last ten starts. Lynn has at least five K’s in all of those starts, and seven or more in eight of his last ten starts. That’s quite a run with a high amount of strikeouts.

The D-Backs have a lower 21.6% K-rate as an offensive team. But, Lynn just fanned 11 Astros in his last outing, a team who’s 18.0% K-rate is the second lowest in baseball. So, there’s a pretty good argument here for Lynn. Regardless of his match-up, he’s likely going to have a solid 40 to 60 FanDuel MLB point outcome.

While Lynn is a great play on Tuesday, especially for cash games, I’m going a different route. I think Jordan Yamamoto ($8,700) could easily be overlooked in his home match-up against the Padres. Also, I love the idea of saving $1.1K for more offensive while still landing around 40 to 50 FanDuel MLB points.

So why Yamamoto? Well, first of all, let me say there is risk with this play which is likely why he’s cheaper. Jordan has only pitched since June 12th for the Marlins this season. Yamamoto has faced only the Braves, Phillies, and Cardinals after five starts.

But, those starts are mostly tough match-ups. So, how did he do? Well, in SunTrust Ball Park, arguably a hitters ballpark, Jordan only gave up two hits to a good Braves lineup, and fanned seven hitters in six innings. Yamamoto earned the quality start, but didn’t get the points for a win. Still, 43 FanDuel MLB points against the Braves in Atlanta is impressive.

His other starts weren’t much different. Jordan piled up 46 and 52 points against the Cardinals in his first two starts, and 36 points in a win against the Phillies the first time. However, in Miami, the Phillies did capitalize on Jordan’s four walks (a consistent problem), and he was only able to get four K’s out of a four inning outing.

Walks are Jordan’s biggest concern. The Phillies piled up eight walks in nine innings against Yamamoto. But, they also were fanned 11 times. In fact, while Jordan has a high 13.5% walk rate, his WHIP is still a very low 0.90. Jordan also has a very low 1.24 ERA, according to FanGraphs.

Additionally, Yamamoto’s current 27.0% K-rate is nearly tied with Buehler, one of the best pitchers in this slate. And, Jordan’s match-up is ideal for a high K-rate type of pitcher. First of all, the Padres 7.8% walk rate is low, leading me to believe we may have lower risk of walks impacting his start. But better, the Padres have the leagues highest K-rate at 26.1%.

So, there is some risk with the Yamamoto play at pitcher, but his reward could be higher than paying up for Buehler or Lynn. And we now have plenty of salary to spend on some big offensive plays. Also, Jordan’s ownership may be lower than most of the top SP picks, assuming not too many of you read this post!