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MLB DFS HItters: Simmering Sluggers: Week of 7/15-7/21

By Juan Carlos Blanco

DENVER, COLORADO - APRIL 19: Trevor Story #27 of the Colorado Rockies circles the bases after hitting a RBI home run in the sixth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Coors Field on April 19, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, COLORADO - APRIL 19: Trevor Story #27 of the Colorado Rockies circles the bases after hitting a RBI home run in the sixth inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Coors Field on April 19, 2019 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS Hitters: Simmering Sluggers: Week of 7/15- 7/21

Welcome to the debut edition of Simmering Sluggers, where I’ll strive to identify some struggling MLB DFS HItters that may well be due to a breakout at the plate during the coming week.

I envision the information in this column to be of potential value to both season-long and DFS players since I’ll essentially be taking a forward-looking perspective at the week to come for the hitters cited. At the same time, the article will also have a brief retroactive perspective, since I’ll be examining certain numbers over the prior 7-10 games that will help make the case for a possible breakout.

The three set of numbers that this piece will hone in on are Line-Drive Rate (LD Rate), Hard-Contact Rate (HC Rate) and BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play). The three have correlation, and when the third one is particularly low while the other two are at above-average levels, it’s typically just a matter of time before the hits start falling.

Many season-long and DFS players are well-acquainted with hard-contact rate and how that naturally can lead to plenty of extra-base hits, including home runs. However, HC rate, while certainly important, isn’t the most predictive batted-ball metric in terms of consistent success at the plate.

Rather, that would be line-drive rate. As an example, baseball metrics site Fangraphs has stated that line drives produced 1.26 runs per out, easily the highest figure of batted-ball types. Therefore, examining who’s been lacing the ball consistently while being handicapped by a low BABIP is an empirically-based method of identifying batters who should see their luck turn around in the very near future.

Before we go into today’s Simmering Sluggers, a few particulars about format and content:

  • As stated earlier, this column will not be written from a site-specific perspective, as the information cited within it can easily be applied to a variety of fantasy formats.
  • Typically, I’ll be focusing on a sample of the previous 8-10 games for each player, which should usually leave us with a minimum of 35 plate appearances that we’re evaluating each of them on. For this first edition, I’ve gone all the way back to July 1st to account for the gap of time without games due to the All-Star break.
  • I’ll always provide at least one player for each position. Any additional options also worth considering for that position will be listed underneath each entry.
  • Normally, this article will post at some point before Monday night games begin. This week’s Tuesday rollout is an exception.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s dive into who some of this week’s potential breakout candidates might be!