Fansided

MLB DFS pitching gems of the day July 17: All in on Paddack

By Brandon Lauderback

SAN DIEGO, CA - JUNE 4: Chris Paddack #59 of the San Diego Padres pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Petco Park June 4, 2019 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
SAN DIEGO, CA - JUNE 4: Chris Paddack #59 of the San Diego Padres pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Petco Park June 4, 2019 in San Diego, California. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
CLEVELAND, OH – AUGUST 19: Starter Mike Clevinger #52 of the Cleveland Indians pitches during the first inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Progressive Field on August 19, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS Pitching Plays

Mike Clevinger – This is a play I have a lot of interest in. At a slight discount from Ray, in a much safer spot, Clevinger is an elite play in all formats. The Tigers have the third-highest strikeout rate, at 25.8%, with a .152 ISO, and only a 79 wRC+ which is extremely low. Since Mike has a small sample size this year, we will use combined data from last year and this year. He has a 3.63 xFIP, 27.3% K rate, 42.1% GB rate, and 35% HC. Clevinger will see more RHH, which really benefits his strikeout upside, since it sits at 30% on the side, compared to 24% against LHH.

Pitch Mix – He uses the fastball the most, with the rest of the usage split between his slider, change, and curve. The whiffs are very solid among all of these pitches, with the slider getting very consistent whiffs above 45%. In his most recent start, Clevinger had elite GB numbers across the board, with every pitch above 44%. The ISO numbers also had a massive decrease on each pitch, which is another sign of some positive regression to come. One really interesting thing to mention is, the velocity is up almost three MPH on his fastball, while he actually made a slight movement increase to get it above ten inches vertically. Typically when the velocity increases that much, the movement decreases.

Detroit has a low ISO, and high whiffs against fastballs. Yet another reason Mike is in a great spot. They also have a high GB rate, and low ISO to sliders, which is possibly his best pitch moving ten inches horizontally. For all of these reasons, Clevinger has possibly the highest upside on the entire slate, and will likely be the most popular arm in cash games.