DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:
Top Tier:
Noah Syndergaard ($9,200): I haven’t considered using Thor for a while now, and it kind of feels weird. He has only topped 20 DraftKings points twice since May 19th. Once was against the Marlins and the other was against the Rockies in New York. He even played Detroit in that span! Thor wasn’t great against the Giants earlier this year either. Despite that, the Giants are still just hitting .184 with no homers and three runs in 76 at bats. The 15 strikeouts are rather low, but if Thor hits 20, we’re gold. That has been a chore lately though.
Madison Bumgarner ($9,000): MadBum has only given up five runs (four earned) in his last four starts since his implosion against the Dodgers on June 20th. His numbers against the Mets aren’t great, and the home/road splits aren’t severe enough to say this will be a great outing. Bumgarner’s overall numbers are better than Thor, and he has had a better recent run, but is that enough to use him?
Middle Tier:
Wade Miley ($8,200): With a faulty upper tier, beggars can’t be choosers on this slate. Even if DraftKings ends up including the Yankees game, it doesn’t add that much from a pitching standpoint. Miley has been dominant in Houston, but his road numbers are significantly worse. The Angels are also hitting lefties better lately, and Miley pretty well overall. So why chase? Because the Angels are giving Miley the win by starting Harvey. If Trout is still out, I like this a lot more. However, Miley’s overall numbers are good enough to roll him out there on a short slate.
Tanner Roark ($7,500): Roark is nothing special as you can see by his 1.37 WHIP, but he does have a respectable 3.88 at home and put up 15.2 DraftKings points on the Cardinals earlier this year. I’m not crazy about this play, but there isn’t a lot of value here. The Cardinals only have one homer against Roark in 66 at bats, but they have almost as many runs as strikeouts.
Kyle Gibson ($6,800): Gibson has been priced in five figures a couple of times this season, so it’s nice seeing him back down here where I will consider using him. Gibson’s numbers are down lately, but not to the point that he should be this cheap. The 3.56 ERA over his last ten games is lower than his season mark. Gibson put up 14.1 DraftKings points against the A’s earlier this year. His 3.69 ERA at home has me trusting in Gibson here. If he gets me 15 for this price, I’ll be content.
Bargain Pitchers:
Merrill Kelly ($6,000): The luster has worn off of Kelly because he hasn’t made a home start, where his ERA is 3.04 on the season, since June 23rd. The lackluster road starts have piled up and driven Kelly’s price down. I really like him at home for this price against a struggling Brewers offense at home. Kelly really only needs 14 DraftKings points or so to feel good about this play. His home average is 19.5 in eight starts.
Dakota Hudson ($5,800): Usually I wont use Hudson on the road, but he hasn’t had a bad road start since the first week of May. He had a bit of good luck against the Padres, but it was still only one earned run. At any rate, Cincinnati is a very risky place to start a pitcher even when you can’t fry an egg on the mound. Hudson’s strong peripheral numbers leave him as a solid option, but if he struggles strikeouts aren’t going to be there to bail you out.
Zach Davies ($5,300): This price on Davies is just comical. After all, he is 7-2 with a 2.89 ERA. The lack of strikeouts limits his upside, but Davies doesn’t give up a lot of runs. He has become an expert at getting out of jams. Davies actually have a better ERA on the road than at home. Arizona is going to get a couple of runs, but not enough to move me off of Davies for this price.
My picks: Gibson, Kelly; Gibson, Davies; Thor, Davies