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FanDuel MLB DFS Breakdown – 7/22: Nationals Ready to Rake

By Joe Metz

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - JULY 16: Juan Soto #22 of the Washington Nationals flips his bat after hitting a solo home run in the sixth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 16, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - JULY 16: Juan Soto #22 of the Washington Nationals flips his bat after hitting a solo home run in the sixth inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on July 16, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images) /
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FanDuel MLB
CLEVELAND, OH – APRIL 01: Starting pitcher Mike Clevinger #52 of the Cleveland Indians pitches during the sixth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field during the Indians Home Opener on April 1, 2019 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images) /

FanDuel MLB – Top Pitchers

Top Play: Mike Clevinger | CLE | $10,200

Clevinger’s 2019 has been cut short due to injury, but in his limited time, he’s posted an elite 41.4% strikeout rate with a 1.82 xFIP and has held both righties and lefties to wOBAs under 0.290. To say he’s been light’s out outside of a blip or two would be an understatement.

He’ll match up with the Blue Jays tonight whose projected lineup against righties has a strikeout rate of 23.2% with a mediocre 0.320 wOBA. The righties in the lineup combine for a 24.6% strikeout rate and they’re projected to roll out 6 of them, which should heighten to strikeout upside.

The final piece to the puzzle is how heavily Clevinger relies on his slider (55% usage rate against righties). Of the 8 projected position players in the Toronto lineup, only Lourdes Gurriel and Justin Smoak have wOBAs over 0.300 and every player except for Eric Sogard has a whiff rate over 34% against the slider.

While many may argue that Gerrit Cole is the top pitcher, especially with OAK implied for the lowest IRT on the slate, the $1,500 savings on Clevinger in return for almost an identical, if not better floor/ceiling combo makes this an easy plug and play for me.

Value Play: Sonny Gray | CIN | $8,600

I’m kicking myself for not listening to my man Brandon (LumberjackDFS) last time he plugged Sonny Gray against the Brewers, but I won’t make the same mistake again twice should I dip this low.

In his last start in Milwaukee (7/3/19), Gray exploded for 70 FDP in 8 shutout innings with 12 punchouts en route to the quality start and win bonus. Since then, he’s only allowed 3 runs over 13 innings, continuing his second-half dominance.

On the season as a whole, Gray has posted a 28.6% strikeout rate and a 3.18 xFIP while showing an elite ability to keep the ball on the ground (57% GB rate). This Brewers lineup is obviously dangerous and the fact that Christian Yelich should be active (he was not in Gray’s last start vs MIL) heightens the risk here, but they do have a 22.8% strikeout rate against righties and only a 0.312 team wOBA.

The upside is here and Gray makes for an elite GPP play and if you choose to fade the studs in cash, I think Gray would be your best pivot.

Honorable Mention(s): Gerrit Cole (1B to Clevinger’s 1A, viable in all formats), Robbie Ray, Trevor Richards