MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: July 22 – I wanna talk to Sampson!
MLB DFS – Pitching Breakdown:
We have an 11 game MLB DFS slate here tonight, and one game – the Rockies/Nationals – looks like it could be a total washout with the rain steadily falling with increasing likelihood from 7 PM EST on. If we cross that game off our initial player pool and look at the rest of the slate, we still have a ton of viable paths in our builds.
Monday’s slate has some seriously high-priced arms with Gerrit Cole and Mike Clevinger both over $23K on FantasyDraft while Robbie Ray and Eduardo Rodriguez are both priced over $21K. Cole and Clevinger both have K rates over 37% this season with swinging-strike rates over 16% so the K upside is clearly evident, but facing two mediocre strikeout opponents in the A’s and Blue Jays, it is fair to wonder if these studs are actually over-priced here tonight.
Oakland is a patient team with only a 21% K rate against RHP this season, ranking 24th in the league and in their only other meeting with Cole this season they limited the Astros ace to only 4 K’s and 13 fantasy points in 6 innings of mediocre 2 run ball.
The Blue Jays meanwhile rank middle of the pack in the last month in K rate, striking out at a 22% clip, however only twice in their last 10 games has the starting pitcher racked up more than 5 K’s (Domingo German and Chris Sale).
Ray ($21.2K) may actually be the better point per dollar high-dollar spend here against an Orioles team with a top 5 K rate (26%) against LHP this season with the roof closed in Arizona. The Orioles projected line-up has a 25.8% K rate against LHP this season and that does not include the fact Baltimore loses the DH heading to the NL park.
However, what if I made the argument, not to pay up at all for pitching here tonight and instead, on a slate where most will pay up for at least one arm, go the value route and pay up for bats on a slate, where most likely won’t.
Trevor Richards ($13.8K) gets THE spot for a right-handed pitcher against the K heavy White Sox here tonight, one we have seen multiple other mediocre arms excel in recent weeks. Over the last two weeks, no right-handed starting pitcher has gone for under 20 fantasy points against the White Sox with guys like Glenn Sparkman (42), Jake Junis (33), Chris Bassit (26), Mike Fiers (24) and Brad Keller (22) all putting up big scores and going at least 6 innings.
Richards is essentially a fastball/change-up arm, throwing those two pitches nearly 80% of the time this year – and while that may not seem like a winning formula, Sparkman uses that mix nearly 75% of the time, Bassit 70% and Fiers 65% so this pitch mix clearly can be effective in this match-up as we have seen time and time again in recent weeks.
Adrian Sampson ($8.2K) is the cheapest arm on the slate and is giving up the highest HC rate on the slate at 49% but, as we argued with Richards, sometimes the opposing team is what we need to target in DFS and not just the starting pitcher stats.
Over the last two weeks, the Seattle Mariners are striking out at a 25.9% clip, fifth highest in baseball while also rocking a .143 team ISO, 4th lowest in the league. During that stretch, all five of the non-opener starting pitchers who have faced this team have gone for 15+ fantasy points including Daniel Mengden and Homer Bailey (20+) with Griffin Canning, Dillon Peters and Matt Harvey (yes the Dark Knight) all going for 15+ fantasy points.
Is Sampson good? No, there is a reason he is priced at a slate low point – but can he be good for one start? Yes, 100% yes. Look earlier this season when he dropped back to back 35 fantasy point starts against the Royals and A’s – how many guys at this price point have demonstrated 30+ fantasy point upside.
Yes, I am aware that on a slate with Cole, Ray, Clevinger and E-Rod, I am arguing for a Richards/Sampson combination but with no team totals over 6, my guess is that most prioritize pitchers in their building which means going cheap with arms and loading up on bats could be quite contrarian here tonight.