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MLB DFS: Simmering Sluggers- Week of 7/22-7/28

By Juan Carlos Blanco

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - MAY 12: Christian Walker #53 of the Arizona Diamondbacks hits a line drive foul during the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field on May 12, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, ARIZONA - MAY 12: Christian Walker #53 of the Arizona Diamondbacks hits a line drive foul during the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Chase Field on May 12, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS: Simmering Sluggers- Week of 7/22- 7/28

Welcome to MLB DFS Simmering Sluggers, where I’ll strive to identify some struggling hitters that may well be due to a breakout at the plate during the coming week.

I envision the information in this column to be of potential MLB DFS value to both season-long and DFS players, since I’ll essentially be taking a forward-looking perspective at the week to come for the hitters cited.

At the same time, the article will also have a brief retroactive perspective, since I’ll be examining certain numbers over the prior 7-10 games that will help make the case for a possible breakout.

The three set of numbers that this piece will hone in on are line-drive rate, hard-contact rate and BABIP (Batting Average of Balls in Play). The three numbers have correlation, and when the third one in particular is particularly low while the other two are at above-average levels, it’s typically just a matter of time before the hits start falling.

Many season-long and DFS players are well-acquainted with hard-contact rate and how that naturally can lead to plenty of extra-base hits, including home runs. However, HC rate, while certainly important, isn’t the most predictive batted-ball metric in terms of consistent success at the plate.

Rather, that would be line-drive rate. As an example, baseball metrics site FanGraphs has stated that line drives produced 1.26 runs per out, easily the highest figure of batted-ball types.

Before we go into today’s Simmering Sluggers, a few particulars about format and content:

  • The nature of the beast with MLB fantasy, both season-long and DFS, is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. For all its advanced stats, baseball can still be notoriously fickle and difficult to predict.
  • As stated earlier, this column will not be written from a site-specific perspective, as the information cited within it can easily be applied to a variety of fantasy formats.
  • Typically, I’ll be focusing on a sample of the previous 8-10 games for each player, which should usually leave us with a minimum of 35 plate appearances that we’re evaluating each of them on.
  • I’ll always provide at least one player for each position. Any additional options also worth considering for that position will be listed underneath each entry.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s first look back at how last week’s recommendations fared. Then, we’ll dive into who some of this week’s potential breakout candidates might be!