DraftKings MLB picks July 23: Max Muncy, that funky Muncy

DraftKings MLB Pitcher Plays:

Top Tier:

Trevor Bauer ($11,400): Bauer has dominated on the road this year, posting a 2.43 ERA in ten road starts. He has averaged a lofty 25.7 DraftKings points per road start. The Blue Jays are improving, but they still wont be able to touch Bauer when he’s on. The bad news here is that Bauer has a 6.57 ERA in three career starts at Rogers Centre. If you are looking for a reason to fade him, that’s it. Well, that and his lefty splits.

Chris Sale ($11,000): Sale dominated his nemesis from earlier this year his last time out. Next is conquering the Rays. Not that that has been an issue for Sale. The current roster is only hitting .196 against him in 46 at bats with a homer, four runs, and 16 strikeouts. On top of that, Sale has a 1.92 ERA in ten career starts at the Trop. Not everyone pitches well there, but Sale sure does. If you want to move off of Bauer, Sale is an outstanding plan B.

Chris Paddack ($10,300): Paddack threw down 40.3 DraftKings points in his only start against the Mets in San Diego earlier this year. Paddack seems to be getting better as the season goes on. The Padres are still limiting Paddack’s pitch count when possible, so that puts a cap on his ceiling. Still, what he did against the Mets earlier is enticing here.

Aaron Nola ($10,100): Nola has an ugly 5.08 road ERA this year, but he put up 16.8 DraftKings points in 5.1 innings against Detroit in Philly earlier this year. The Tigers get a DH. So what. The hitter they put in that slot is worse than half of the NL pitchers that come to the plate. I think we’ll be very happy with Nola’s output tonight, even in the AL park.

Middle Tier:

Madison Bumgarner ($9,000): MadBum and his teammates are playing like they don’t want to be traded. Bummy has a 3.30 ERA at home and the Cubs are hitting just .159 against him in 91 at bats with two homers, nine runs, and a staggering 31 strikeouts. While I don’t know that he’s the MadBum of old, he might look like it since how he pitches tonight could affect whether he is traded or not. If the Giants keep winning, they can’t hardly tear this down.

Yonny Chirinos ($8,400): Chirinos had the most dominant performance of his career against Boston at Fenway back on June 7th. Chirinos gave up just two hits and two walks while striking out six in eight shutout innings. The chances of him doing that to a team like Boston again aren’t good, but the 3.11 home ERA also says that the Red Sox shouldn’t have a ton of success either. I really like this price on Chirinos tonight.

Wade Miley ($8,000): Miley has been a machine at home this year for the Astros. Miley has a 1.86 ERA in eight home starts. His ERA against the A’s in two starts is even better (1.54)! Miley doesn’t always notch the number of strikeouts that we want, but he averages nearly a strikeout per inning at home. The A’s are hitting just .216 with two homers and eight runs in 88 at bats against Miley with 18 strikeouts. Couple that with Miley’s home splits, and he should be well worth the price tonight.

Chris Archer ($7,500): Archer has held the Cardinals to just three runs in 11 innings this year and has racked up 43 DraftKings points in two starts. Archer’s numbers are much better at home, and he is going against a reeling offense. Despite Archer’s poor numbers on the season, he hasn’t had a really poor outing in over a month. He should be plenty safe against the Cardinals.

Bargain Pitchers:

Merrill Kelly ($7,300): DFS is about picking your spots, and this is a great one for Kelly. Kelly has a 2.83 ERA in nine home starts this year, and this is likely the easiest matchup he has had there this year. Baltimore is somewhat dangerous against lefties, but they are almost powerless against righties. Add in the elevated strikeout rate (25.4% against RHP) and Kelly is really looking cheap tonight.

Dallas Keuchel ($7,200): Keuchel has been solid with the Braves and he has particularly excelled in Atlanta. Keuchel has a 2.51 ERA in his two home starts. This is a good matchup with the Royals. Though they do have some power from the right side, they still strike out a lot. Keuchel looks to be one of the safer picks out there with the Royals losing the DH.

Peter Lambert ($4,600): The Rockies are doing us a solid and leaving us a strong punt option at pitcher tonight. Lambert has only given up four runs in 12 innings in two road starts. Want to say they weren’t against good teams? Don’t bother. It was against the Dodgers and Cubs. I absolutely love Lambert for the price. He will be my SP2 in a ton of lineups.

Dylan Covey ($4,600): Ivan Nova, he of the astronomical home ERA, dominated the Marlins last night. I don’t care how much Covey has struggled. He has been outstanding at home with a 2.20 ERA in three starts. The Marlins couldn’t hit a beach ball on the road. Covey is going to put up massive numbers for the price. I’m even toying with going him and Lambert in one lineup!

My picks: Bauer, Covey; MadBum, Kelly; Paddack, Kelly; Lambert, Covey