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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: July 29 – Put down the Coors, grab a Natty

By Brian Tulloch

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 7:Washington Nationals second baseman Brian Dozier (9) celebrates his solo homer with Washington Nationals catcher Yan Gomes (10) against the Kansas City Royals in the second inning at Nationals Park July 07, 2019 in Washington, DC. The Nets beat the Royals 5-2.(Photo by Katherine Frey/The Washington Post via Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 7:Washington Nationals second baseman Brian Dozier (9) celebrates his solo homer with Washington Nationals catcher Yan Gomes (10) against the Kansas City Royals in the second inning at Nationals Park July 07, 2019 in Washington, DC. The Nets beat the Royals 5-2.(Photo by Katherine Frey/The Washington Post via Getty Images) /
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MLB DFS
PHOENIX, AZ – APRIL 12: Starting pitcher Chris Paddack #59 of the San Diego Padres pitches against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the first inning of an MLB game at Chase Field on April 12, 2019 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Photo by Ralph Freso/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Pitching Breakdown:

We have a small(er) 7 game MLB DFS slate here on Monday but with a game in Coors Field and some top dollar arms, this could end up being one of the more entertaining slates as game theory and strategy could end up playing a far bigger role than simply picking the right plays.

Let’s start with Coors Field where the Dodgers and Rockies are set to face off against each other. Now, I am sure you see the Dodgers in Coors with a 7 IRT and think, well we know 2LockSports is going to go dumpster diving at pitcher to jam in every possible Dodger bat right?

Honestly, no – I think Coors is a fade tonight.

Here is the thing – we have two good arms in Kenta Maeda and Jon Gray on the mound and while I don’t see the need to use either in DFS, ask yourself – if this game was in Dodger Stadium, would we be doing everything we could to stack up bats against these arms? With it being a smaller slate, I think the ownership on the bats here is going to be so highly concentrated which means everyone will be dumpster diving in the same small pool of arms which makes it incredibly difficult to differentiate your builds.

Instead, I think focusing on ways to shoot for ceiling with slate strategy as the key goal is the way to attack that slate and with so many focused on Coors, I would argue we should pay up for pitching with both spots.

Chris Paddack ($19.3K) gets the perfect combination of ballpark and match-up as he heads back home to San Diego after getting his teeth kicked in by Robinson Cano in New York and faced an Orioles team that loses their DH in the NL park.

Paddack has been simply phenomenal at home, going for 25+ fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 home starts with 3 of those being games he went for 30 or more as a result of his near 33% K rate pitching in San Diego. Now, let’s take a high K team in Baltimore that has a 25.3% K rate over the last month (8th highest in baseball) and you see a projected line-up that has Chris Davis (38% K rate) followed by the pitcher in the 8-9 holes.

My only concern with Paddack is the pitch count as he has yet to go over 100 pitches this season but it feels like that is already baked into the price here when you consider he is cheaper than Patrick Corbin and Caleb Smith.

Sonny Gray ($17.8K) leads all qualified pitchers on tonight’s slate over the last month with a 28.7% K rate, while also putting up 20+ fantasy points now in 5 straight starts. Gray will take on a Pittsburgh team that he last faced in May, striking out 7 over 6 innings on his way to 25 fantasy points.

The Pirates right now are an offense that while still light on K’s, is simply scuffling offensively, scoring the third-fewest runs in baseball over the last two weeks (ahead of only the Marlins and Tigers) while sporting a .110 ISO which is by far the lowest of any team in baseball.

Note – the one issue with Gray tonight could be weather as it is the one true ugly spot on the slate with rain risk essentially throughout.

Paddack and Gray are two arms with clear paths to 25-30 fantasy points on FantasyDraft and their price points are reasonable enough where you can lock in both and still have just under $7.9K per batter to fill out the rest of your roster with strong hitting options.