Fantasy Football: Offensive Coordinator Breakdown – Arizona Cardinals
Each off-season the NFL landscape changes dramatically with every coaching change across the league. This past season eight NFL head coaches were terminated, while an additional seven NFL teams made changes at offensive coordinator. How does that impact your Fantasy Football plays?
With 46 percent of the league changing offensive systems this off-season, I am going to breakdown each of these new play callers, their tendencies and how it will impact each team this coming season, and your Fantasy Football plays
Arizona Cardinals HC/OC– Kliff Kingsbury
Average Offensive Coordinator Production– None (First Season)
Historical Team Rankings– None (First Season)
Fantasy Football Play Caller Profile:
First year NFL head coach and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury takes over for an anemic offense that finished dead last in the NFL in total yards and 31st in total plays.
One of the best offensive minds in college football, Kingsbury’s offenses at Texas Tech (2016-2018) finished 8th, 18th, and 28th in total offense out of 130 qualifying teams.
Kingsbury will be bringing in an air-raid system, that will mostly operate out of the shotgun featuring three to four wide receiver sets.
Fantasy Football Passing Game Impact:
The Cardinals will be playing out of a base three-wide-receiver set this season or 11 personnel. When Kingsbury wants to spread the field he will shift to 10 personnel (4WRs/1RB) which will open running lanes for Johnson and Murray putting stress on defenses nickel corners and linebackers.
With so much emphasis on wide receiver in this system, it made drafting receivers a premium in this years draft. The Cardinals selected three wide receivers starting with Andy Isabella in the second round out of UMASS, who led the nation in receiving yards last season (1,698).
Isabella is a dynamic player that torched all levels of competition including the Georgia Bulldogs, catching 15 balls for 219 yards and two touchdowns. His best fit will be in the slot but with Fitzgerald around for one more season, he looks to slide outside and compete with fellow rookies KeeSean Johnson, Hakeem Butler and veteran Chad Williams.
At 6’5 227 pounds, Butler is a raw but physical specimen that should develop into a nice red-zone threat for the Cardinals offense as the season progresses.
The early reports out of camp are raving about KeeSean Johnson and his immediate connection with Kyler Murray, “In what seems to be becoming a trend, Murray has found some great synergy with fellow rookie KeeSean Johnson” “He’s a smooth route runner; he’s picked up the system really really quickly” coach Kingsbury said of Johnson according to Bob McManaman of the Arizona Republic.
Fantasy Football Running Game Impact:
While Kingsbury never finished higher than 84th in rushing offense during his years at Texas Tech, David Johnson is in for a major bounce back season. While Johnson finished 9th in PPR formats, the majority of his owners that selected him in the top-5 of their drafts felt letdown.
This year Johnson will no longer have to deal with Mike McCoy’s unimaginative play calling and actually get the ball in space. When Kingsbury does have talent at running back, he utilizes it. In 2014, DeAndre Washington had 223 carries for 1,455 yards and 14 touchdowns while catching 30 passes averaging 10.9 yards per reception.
Kingsbury has also shown the ability to incorporate his quarterbacks in the running game as Patrick Mahomes had double-digit rushing touchdowns in 2015 and 2016. With two dynamic ball carriers in the backfield, I would look for the Cardinals to have a ton of success on the ground this season.
Fantasy Football Winners:
The Cardinals traded last year’s first round pick Josh Rosen and selected Heisman Trophy winner Kyler Murray to take over the reigns of Kinsbury’s Air-Raid attack. Murray was sensational after taking over for Baker Mayfield, completing 69 percent of his passes at a whopping 11.6 yards per attempt and 42 touchdowns.
The best fantasy asset for Murray might not even be his offensive weapons, as the Cardinals defense is projected to be one of the worst in the league. Giving a mobile quarterback defenses that will be playing prevent while they protect their lead in the 4th quarter is a fantasy owners dream, it even made Blake Bortles a top-5 fantasy quarterback in 2015.
Murray is one of the highest upside players in fantasy football this season, just be safe and pair him with a veteran that will give you a safe floor.
The wide receiver that I am most interested in is Christian Kirk, who played for Kingsbury at Texas Tech. During his three seasons with Kingsbury, Kirk racked up 234 catches for 2856 yards and 26 touchdowns.
Kirk is a fast twitched athlete who excels in space and is someone who Kingsbury has a lot of trust in who knows his offense well. Kirk should be the most targeted receiver on this team and finish as a top-30 wide receiver this season.
The main mantra of a Kliff Kingsbury offense is to get his play-makers in space and utilize them as much as possible. David Johnson is one touch away from taking it to the house anywhere on the field.
His best asset in this offense will be his pass catching ability, which he has averaged 10.8 yards per reception in his career. I would expect David Johnson’s workload to remain around 20-25 touches per game and for Johnson to finish as a top-5 running back this season.
Fantasy Football Losers:
This offense finished dead last in total offense last season, there is only one way to go and that is up.
Next. Fantasy Football Player Profile: Kerryon Johnson. dark
Keep an eye out for @JDEBUCH as he continues to break down each NFL Offensive Coordinator, heading into the 2019 season, to understand how that will impact your Fantasy Football plays this year.