SEC apologists, and fans of a certain team in the state between Mississippi and Florida, will tell you there’s no grind like the SEC grind. THAT is why Alabama lost to Clemson. About that.
Last week, Dabo Swinney, head coach of the National Champion Clemson Tigers, responded to, among other silly things, arguments that Clemson’s conference schedule left them better rested than Alabama. That is because Alabama plays in the SEC, while they play in the lowly ACC. Never mind that, at some point, you are what your record says you are. Never mind they played two SEC schools prior to Alabama. It is just physically impossible to play such a tough schedule as Alabama did and win a National Championship.
You might be inclined to say, “Oh well, I guess we’ll never know.” But wait! We just so happen to have a “What if machine” at our disposal. Let’s see what it has to say.
What if Clemson was in the SEC?
First some ground rules: First, if Clemson goes into the SEC, they have to replace one of the existing teams. Second, they assume the schedule of the SEC team that they replace. Sure, there are myriad of butterfly effects that we have to overlook, but the “What if machine” is still in beta. This is the best we got.
What team does it make sense to replace?
Since Clemson plays South Carolina every year, and every team in the SEC East plays South Carolina, let’s just swap Clemson in the SEC and South Carolina takes their place in the ACC. It’s like Freaky Friday meets college football.
So if Clemson played South Carolina’s schedule, it would look like this:
- Coastal Carolina
- Georgia
- at Vanderbilt
- at Kentucky
- Missouri
- Texas A&M
- Tennessee
- at Ole Miss
- at Florida
- Chattanooga
- at Clemson
- Akron
Coastal Carolina? Easy win, but, “Ah-ha!” you say. The big bad Bulldogs come to town in week two. But the grind hasn’t hit yet. A “fresh” Clemson, stomped Alabama, which beat Georgia in the SEC Championship. Why would this Week 2 match-up favor Georgia? That’s a win. Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Mizzou? Yawn. Texas A&M? If only we knew what Clemson could do in a friendly environment. All we have is this darn hostile environment. Tennessee and Ole Miss are cupcake opponents.
Now we get to Florida. Without a doubt, The Swamp is a brutal environment. But South Carolina, our comparison group, took them down to the wire. And if you aren’t sure if Clemson has the horses to outplay South Carolina, let Clemson sing you a 56-35 song. The talent differential should be enough to put the Tigers over the top.
Clemson finds themselves in the SEC Championship Game against Alabama. We already know how well this team plays against the Crimson Tide. Does the fact that Clemson played an SEC schedule drain them of 28 points? C’mon. Trevor Lawrence is still slinging the ball. He still has skill players with superpowers around him.
In short, the Tigers still have among the best defenses in the country. And it’s deep. The talent they bring back this year played a lot last year. If you look at South Carolina’s schedule, there just aren’t that many teams that Clemson couldn’t or haven’t handled. So what if they took Georgia’s schedule instead?
Georgia’s non-conference schedule isn’t much to speak of, but they do play Florida and LSU. Does Clemson lose to both of those teams? Probably not. LSU lost to Texas A&M and Florida en route to 5-3. And, as a matter of fact, Florida lost to Georgia on a neutral site.
Yeah, but it’s about the wear and tear.
Ok fine. They’ve recruited at an elite level, evidenced by getting Lawrence, and are poised to have one of the best classes ever with the Class of 2020. Even beyond Lawrence, Clemson found a way to beat Syracuse last year with a backup quarterback. They have the players. They have the coaches. Clemson isn’t Boise State or Utah when they beat Oklahoma or Alabama, respectively, in their BCS games in college football’s previous iteration as an algorithm come to life.
The points you’ve made are valid, but seriously, the SEC is so much tougher than the rest of college football, that it’s just not possible to come out of the regular season not exhausted.
Well, what if Alabama and Oklahoma and Notre Dame and Clemson and any other team that played or might play or might dream of playing in the playoff had an entire month between their respective conference championship and the playoff? Would that change your mind at all?
Because there is a month between conference championships and the playoffs. An entire February (not on leap years). Even more, if you are Notre Dame. Less if you’re Navy.
If your argument is that Alabama, after having a month off, was not well rested in the playoffs, there isn’t much else to say, except let’s just make the SEC title game the national title game. And then the winner gets to go to the Super Bowl.
If you’re saying that Clemson wouldn’t survive the SEC, well, then you have to say that Clemson would lose more than one game a year. And looking hard at it, there are two teams on either Georgia’s or South Carolina’s schedule at most that would be Clemson. And that’s if they caught the Tigers slack-jawed. Maybe other years, but not 2018.
In the end, you play the games on your schedule. Alabama and Clemson met in the last game of the season after both teams played 14 games. Both teams had ample rest heading into that game. Alabama got worked. Sorry about it.