2. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama, JR
The best draft-eligible quarterback in 2020 is Tua Tagovailoa, and it’s not close entering the season. His lone hiccup in his career came against Georgia in the SEC Championship Game this past season, where he played poorly on an ankle that was injured early and required surgery. It’s also not a damming statement that Trevor Lawrence outplayed him in the national title game as Lawrence was perfect.
Tagovailoa doesn’t possess a cannon on his left shoulder, but he compensates for it well with extremely good touch, timing, and ball placement. He’s routinely hitting his receivers in stride and maximizing yards after the catch potential. He’s a smooth passer who is deadly on short and deep throws alike despite not having the same zip as some of his peers.
Like Lawrence’s situation with Clemson, Alabama’s deep group of receivers do make things easier for Tagovailoa to shine. His receivers often spring open early and find daylight to sprint towards. This isn’t a case of the surrounding cast doing all of the hard work, though; only 40 percent of his career touchdowns have come via throws under 10 yards, a mark that’s about average in my database.
A dual-threat who moves efficiently in and outside of the pocket, Tagovailoa has continually demonstrated the ability to improvise and keep his eyes downfield as he evades defenders. He handles pressure as well as almost any quarterback to come out in the last four years, delivering a catchable ball on 60 percent of throws, and boasting a 12-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. And his anticipation is as good as anyone’s in the country.
He compares nearly identically to Kyler Murray’s 2018 in terms of charting data, which was a surprising find since the two only share a few similarities with the eye test. But it’s a good sign for his future performance.
Tagovailoa can improve his intermediate accuracy, where he has some of the best throws we’ll see on Saturdays, but also tend to float near the sideline and go over his receivers’ head. His lack of velocity shows at times but rarely end up in interception opportunities.
The other area for growth is taking what’s there more than trying to play hero ball. I’m not nearly as concerned with this as some others because Tagovailoa routinely protects the ball, but his playmaking nature needs balancing with executing what’s schemed there.
Regardless, Tagovailoa projects as a high-floor, high upside talent that brings justified comparisons to Steve Young. He’ll again lead the Crimson Tide into the national title picture in 2019.