Josh Gordon is being drafted too early in fantasy football leagues

The news of Josh Gordon’s conditional reinstatement resulted in a large and immediate jump in his ADP, but the pendulum swung too far.

Before Josh Gordon’s conditional reinstatement by the NFL last week, he was an afterthought in most fantasy drafts. The news that Gordon had officially applied for reinstatement had trickled out about a week earlier, and that interesting tidbit got him back on the radar of the fantasy football community. But still, he was being drafted as a late-round dart throw at best.

The reason is obvious. Gordon’s long and tortured history with drug abuse – leading to suspensions, or to him voluntarily stepping away – is well-known. Fans are tired of talking about it, tired of wondering when the next let-down will occur. They are fatigued of the talk about what could have been if only he could have stayed clean. They are wary of being disappointed again.

And yet when the news came in last week that Gordon had been reinstated, and would be allowed to play the full season, the reaction was immediate and a bit surprising. Gordon’s ADP went from the 12th round up to the mid-seventh in a matter of a day or two. He is now being drafted as the 34th wide receiver off the board, even with all the uncertainty surrounding him.

That is one very aggressive pendulum swing.

When I suggested that the Gordon love was getting out of hand, this response I received on Twitter was pretty common:

The instantaneous love for Gordon is understandable. His upside is off the charts, with perhaps the perfect physical profile for a wide receiver. He is big and fast, has great hands, and mentally he picks up offenses quickly. He is playing with one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league, in an offense that seems to always be a step ahead of whatever defense they are playing. Indeed, if things click into place just right, he could be a league-winner this year.

And yet drafting Gordon in the seventh round is still not advisable. This is not merely because of the danger of risking a valuable pick on a player who is perhaps the most likely in the league to miss time due to a suspension. You could incorporate that risk profile into your roster construction and stomach it.

But even if he bucks the trend and plays 16 games, he is unlikely to produce the stats to justify a seventh-round selection.

Here’s why. First, he is not the same player he was in 2013, if only because he has not been playing football as often. His constant stops and starts could not have been helpful to a positive trend in his skill development.

Second, Brady is not the same player he was back when he was throwing touchdown bombs to Randy Moss. While he has done a masterful job covering over his waning arm strength and finding a way both to get wins and to be efficient statistically, it is clear when you watch him play that he cannot drive the ball down the field like he used to.

That doesn’t mean he cannot continue to be successful, or that he is incapable of leading the Patriots to a Super Bowl victory at age 50. But it does mean that his most efficient throws are not deep balls but are slants, out-routes, and generally any route in the middle of the field, either short or intermediate.

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Certainly, Gordon is able to run intermediate routes like slants, ins, and out routes. And we should expect him to be successful with those routes. But Gordon is known for his ability to catch long touchdown passes, and to secure catches in traffic down the field. This element of his game is one that fantasy players should not expect to be the primary way he is used.

If that is the case, one has to wonder how many targets Gordon will really get in an offense that also features Julian Edelman and James White, master route runners of the short-to-intermediate variety. They both get open with ease due to their short-area quickness, and that is not Gordon’s forte. Further, both have played with Brady for many years and seem to share his brain.

For these reasons, I actually anticipate that Gordon’s return will benefit those two players most of all. Since defenses have to respect Gordon’s abilities and will likely pay extra attention to him in the passing game, it should open up the underneath routes for Edelman and White that much more.

Our best indicator for how Gordon will sync into this offense during the 2019 season can be found by looking at his time with the Patriots in 2018. In 11 games, he received 68 targets – just over 6 per game. He secured 3.7 of those targets per game (41 catches), for a 57% catch rate. That sort of low catch rate is fairly common for receivers who are often targeted deep down the field. On the positive side, though, his yards per reception was one of the highest in the league at nearly 18.

If we extrapolate those numbers over an entire season, Gordon would have 99 targets for 56 catches, 1,010 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Those are solid numbers and would result in 193 PPR fantasy points. Those numbers would actually make him worthy of his seventh-round ADP.

However, if his yards-per-catch rate comes down to a more sustainable 15, he would only have 840 yards (and 176 PPR points). If his touchdown-per-reception rate (which was extremely high last season) decreases to a more sustainable 7%, that would put him at 4 touchdowns (and 164 PPR points). That is what Mohamed Sanu scored last season.

Of course, within Gordon’s range of possible outcomes is also that he goes far beyond the 6 targets per game, and again becomes a dominant fantasy force. It’s just that within this offense, and with the current skill set of his quarterback, that seems far less likely.

Drafting him in the seventh round is a risk some will feel is worth taking. However, with the question marks discussed above, in addition to the possibility that he may not play a full season, it is a risk I will avoid. I’d rather take a shot on a high-upside player with less risk, like Christian Kirk, Marques Valdes-Scantling, or Robby Anderson. If the pendulum swings back to the eighth or ninth round, then pulling the trigger becomes a lot more palatable.

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