In Matt Campbell’s fourth season at the helm of Iowa State football, is this the year the Cyclones breakthrough for a double-digit win season?
The Cyclones got off to a terrible start in 2018 as they were 1-3 to start the season dropping games against Iowa, Oklahoma, and TCU. Then in stepped freshman quarterback Brock Purdy to take over for Zeb Holland. Purdy would throw for 2,250 yards and keep his job for the rest of the season as the Cyclones went 7-1 under his control and an 8-5 overall.
Now with the quarterback situation seemingly settled entering 2019, the focus on offense should be on an Iowa State rushing attack that was at the bottom of the Big 12 in production in 2018. With leading rusher from last season David Montgomery gone and Brock Purdy being their second-leading rusher, someone else is going to have to step up in the Cyclone backfield.
With seven of their top ten tacklers returning, the defense should be as good if not better than last season. That’s saying a lot considering the Cyclones led the Big 12 in rushing defense and were second in total defense. Safeties Greg Eisworth and Braxton Lewis return as two of the top three tacklers from last season. Mike Rose returns to lead a talented linebacker corps and JaQuan Bailey will do the same with the defensive line. Expect the Cyclones to be tops in the Big 12 in run defense once again this season.
While loaded at safety, Cyclones did lose both of their corners and inexperience on the outside of the pass defense could spell disaster in a pass-heavy Big 12. That being said, replacements Anthony Johnson and Datrone Young have been there long enough to be able to hold their weight in 2019.
Iowa State football best-case scenario
- Aug. 31 – vs. Northern Iowa – W
- Sept. 13 – vs. Iowa – W
- Sept. 21 – vs. Louisiana-Monroe – W
- Sept. 28 – at Baylor – W
- Oct. 5 – vs. TCU – W
- Oct. 12 – at West Virginia – W
- Oct. 19 – at Texas Tech – W
- Oct. 26 – vs. Oklahoma State – W
- Nov. 9 – at Oklahoma – L
- Nov. 16 – vs. Texas – L
- Nov. 23 – vs. Kansas – W
- Nov. 30 – at Kansas State – W
Record: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12)
If everything goes right for the Cyclones and they start conference play strong, Iowa State could find themselves undefeated going into November thanks to a back-loaded schedule. It also helps that they get their toughest non-conference game in Iowa at home this year as well as TCU, Oklahoma State, and Texas at home as well.
But back to back games against Oklahoma and Texas isn’t going to do them any favors in their hunt to make the Big 12 Championship game.
All in all, a ten-win season would be a massive success for Matt Campbell, the highest that he has seen in his tenure and the Cyclones would have a legitimate shot at a New Years Six Bowl.
Iowa State football worst-case scenario
- Aug. 31 – vs. Northern Iowa – W
- Sept. 13 – vs. Iowa – L
- Sept. 21 – vs. Louisiana-Monroe – W
- Sept. 28 – at Baylor – W
- Oct. 5 – vs. TCU – L
- Oct. 12 – at West Virginia – W
- Oct. 19 – at Texas Tech – W
- Oct. 26 – vs. Oklahoma State – L
- Nov. 9 – at Oklahoma – L
- Nov. 16 – vs. Texas – L
- Nov. 23 – vs. Kansas – W
- Nov. 30 – at Kansas State – L
Record: 6-6 (4-5 Big 12)
If the Iowa State defense is going to falter, it’s going to be at home as the Cyclones will take some of the most dangerous offenses in the Big 12 in their own backyard.
If Iowa state can’t get their secondary straight with the departure of two corners, that is going to spell trouble against the high-flying Oklahoma State offense and if they can’t find much production from the backfield, they will also have difficulties against the stout defenses of TCU and Iowa. Also after getting knocked out of Big 12 championship contention with losses to Oklahoma and Texas, Iowa State could see a let down against what should be a slightly better Kansas State team looking for a bowl bid at home.
Purdy has to take a big step forward, especially if their running backs don’t come to play. If he doesn’t, it could derail the recent consistency of the Campbell led Cyclones as with a bowl loss, they will fail to reach eight wins for a third straight season.
The good news for the Cyclones is that I see it unlikely that Purdy doesn’t break the 3,500-yard mark this season. If he does that, along with a solid defense, the Cyclones could be on their way to one of the best seasons in their history.