College football betting: Week 0 line movement and how you should react

Peak the biggest lines moves for the Miami vs. Florida and Arizona at Hawaii games. Here is how you should be betting on Week 0 college football games.

We are trying to look at every angle when betting. Football lines – notably college football – are prone to lots of fluctuations. Early in the season, the numbers are even more prone to this volatility, as the books are reacting to when a number gets hit hard on one side and with no real product on the field yet, the book has to continue to adapt against a heavy public favorite.

Looking at these movements and trying to understand them can help lead to successful betting.

Note: We will be using Sports Insights for the lines and betting/money percentages

No. 8 Florida vs. Miami (Fla.)

Line move: 50.5 O/U to 47 O/U

Why it changed: Simply put is that people view this as a neutral site, mid-August rivalry game. Most expect it to be a hot, humid night in Florida between two programs who have prided themselves on defense.

How you should respond: Lean towards the under.

Current weather reports show that it will either be humid as expected or likely thunderstorm late afternoon, likely leaving the field wet. Miami only returns six starters on offense, will line-up freshmen at quarterback and both tackles spot, while Florida only returns five starters to the offense.

Taking this line at the deflated value means you’re betting on the weather being either muggy or wet and the freshmen playing like freshmen. I would say proceed with caution though because, under a brand new staff, these young Hurricanes are getting a shot because they have raw talent. Let’s not forget that Jeff Thomas was reinstated to the program too. They have potential. Each of these teams did rank in the top 32 in defensive yards per play last year, with Miami coming in at sixth, so I would still lean towards the under, but don’t hammer it at its new line.

Arizona at Hawaii

Line move: 70 O/U to 74 O/U

Why it changed: People absolutely love their Hawaii overs, to the tune of a 74/26 split right now.

How you should respond: Lean towards the under.

This might seem crazy, but there is contrarian value in this number.

Hawaii managed to avoid any Power Five teams last year. They were stomped in 2017 and 2016 against their four P5 opponents, three of those games breaching the current O/U mark.

During 2014 and 2015 – the last seasons the Rainbow Warriors hosted these squads – they were ugly, low-scoring games, with the average total being 50 and no game exceeding the 68 mark.

Finally, lets add-in that while not playing any P5 teams last year, Hawaii did play three ranked teams and never scored over 21 points and the total never hit its current number. Quarterback Cole McDonald only completed 52.4 percent of his passes in those three games with five touchdowns to three interceptions.

The number only seems like it may trend higher, so it may be wise to wait and see if it pushes up a point or two. Maybe Arizona quarterback and potential Heisman contender Khalil Tate is truly enough on his own to push this number to where it needs to be. Arizona is far from a great defense, but if the Warriors struggled to score at Army and against the two elites of the Mountain West last year – Fresno State and Utah State – I have no faith that they will be able to find sustainable success against the Wildcats.

Week 1 sneak peek betting lines and movement

Georgia Tech at No. 1 Clemson

Line move: Clemson -33.5 to -36

Quick summary: Nobody seems to be a fan of Georgia Tech converting from the triple option to Geoff Collins and co. new offense. Plus, Clemson is insanely good.

East Carolina at North Carolina State

Line move: East Carolina +20.5 to +17

Quick summary: The Wolfpack have lost an incredible amount of talent the last two years combined and that is fueling 70 percent of the public to take the Pirates and drive this number down. New ECU head coach Mike Houston was incredible at James Madison, only losing 24-13 to the Wolfpack to open last season. NC State still has yet to announce a starter at quarterback. The main thing that keeps coming to the forefront of my mind on this one; the Wolfpack won this game 58-3 last year.

Colorado vs. Colorado State

Line move: 64.5 O/U to 58.5 O/U

Quick summary: Gigantic movement on a total that has seen 82 percent take the under. 2013 was the last time the total topped this mark and the Rams lose their quarterback and top two receivers from a team that scored 13 points against the Buffaloes a year ago.