Can Nick Chubb finish as the No. 1 RB in fantasy this year?
Nick Chubb will the Browns’ No. 1 running back from the start this year, but could he also finish as the top-scoring back in fantasy football?
In one of many mistakes made by Hue Jackson as Cleveland Browns’ head coach, Nick Chubb had just 16 carries in his first six games as a rookie last year in favor of Carlos Hyde. When Hyde was traded heading into Week 7, the excuses to not use Nick Chubb were gone.
From Week 7 through the end of the season (10 games), Chubb had 823 rushing yards (4.7 yards per carry) and six touchdowns with at least 18 carries seven times in that span.
Add 20 catches (on 28 targets) for 149 yards and two more touchdowns, and you get RB8 in standard and full-point PPR leagues over that stretch. Over the eight games after Freddie Kitchens became interim head coach, Chubb averaged 4.8 yards per carry with four 20-plus carry outings.
The Browns signed Kareem Hunt this off-season, but he’ll be out suspended for the first eight games of the season. Odell Beckham Jr. also came aboard via a trade, to add a legit No. 1 wide receiver to the mix. Add in Jarvis Landry and tight end David Njoku, and there are plenty of mouths to feed in the Cleveland passing game.
But Browns running backs coach Stump Mitchell seems to think there’s room to get Chubb more targets.
"I think he’s going to be special like he was last year,” Mitchell said, via Cleveland.com. “He’ll be used a little more in the passing game than he was last year. Nick just continues to improve on the skill set that he has, and I think he has a fantastic skill set."
Running back Duke Johnson was finally traded, to the Houston Texans, two weeks ago. He’s leaving behind 62 targets from last year for the Browns, and it’s safe to say some of those will go to Chubb.
A recent piece from Ben Baldwin of The Athletic (subscription required) pointed to the relative inefficiency of passing to running backs, but Chubb will be naturally more involved from the start this year and his passing game usage will rise in kind.
Where Nick Chubb can really make greater hay this year is in the touchdown column. He had 26 red zone carries last year, with 25 of them packed into his 10-game stretch as the lead back. Actually, all 25 came over a nine-game stretch from Week 7-Week 16.
All five of his red zone targets for the season came when he was more involved, as expected, with two receiving touchdowns. Narrowing down to carries inside the five-yard line, Chubb was 5-for-9 cashing in touchdowns last year.
With the question marks among a chunk of the top running backs in fantasy right now, from Todd Gurley’s knee to holdouts by Ezekiel Elliott and Melvin Gordon and Le’Veon Bell coming off a season out on a new team, Chubb is already a first-round pick (pick 1.08 in 12-team standard leagues, per Fantasy Football Calculator).
Chubb’s path to finishing as the top-scoring running back in fantasy football this year will be paved by opportunity. Be it as a pass catcher or in the red zone, as part of an offense that should be very good, those opportunities won’t wait until Week 7 this year.
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The mid-season threat of Hunt is there, but it’s not enough to dampen the second-year back’s outlook for 2019. If you’re betting on someone to finish as the RB1 in fantasy football this year (proverbially or otherwise), a below-the-radar bet on Chubb has as good a chance to cash in as any other.
Nick Chubb 2019 Projection: 285 carries for 1,280 yards, 11 TD; 40 receptions for 322 yards, 2 TD