Sergey Kovalev vs. Anthony Yarde: Preview and prediction

Sergey Kovalev defends his WBO light heavyweight title against undefeated KO artist Anthony Yarde. Kovalev is the favorite, but will he win?

When Sergey Kovalev (33-3-1, 28 KOs) defends his WBO light heavyweight title against Anthony Yarde (18-0, 17 KOs) on Saturday, Aug. 24, there are several unknowns that make handicapping this bout difficult. It’s an odd matchup, but Kovalev has the edge which is something oddsmakers agree on.

Kovalev ruled the light heavyweight division for years, but Andre Ward tarnished his record and shattered his psyche. Their first fight in 2016 was close and somewhat controversial. Ward won by unanimous decision, but all three judges returned scores of 113-114 for Ward. The loss damaged Kovalev mentally.

In their 2017 rematch, Ward dominated Kovalev, and the fight was stopped in round 8 when Kovalev failed to fight back after being hurt to the body. When discussing the contest in 2018 with FanSided Kovalev said, “I was broke mentally, and my emotions pushed me to get a rematch, but I wasn’t ready for [a] rematch. But what happened has happened, and I’m happy that life gave me [a] big lesson that I should be focused on my boxing career if I want to be a great champion.”

Kovalev won the WBO title five months later but was shockingly knocked out in August of 2018 by Eleider Alvarez. The rematch took place in February and Kovalev brought in Buddy McGirt to be his new trainer. The pairing worked well together.

Under McGirt, Kovalev switched his power punching style to that of a skilled counterpuncher. He outboxed Alvarez and won a 12-round unanimous decision. McGirt transformed Kovalev but is the transformation permanent? Kovalev’s bout with Yarde is just his second collaboration with McGirt.

Yarde’s record is phenomenal, and so is his 94 percent KO rating. His previous opponents were mediocre at best and offered no challenge. Kovalev marks his first test. In his 18 career bouts, Yarde has only fought outside of his home country England once, and that was in 2016.

Yarde’s record shows that he has been brought along carefully. He’s a late bloomer in the sport and lacked amateur experience. His slow progression in opposition was used to make up for his lack of an amateur background. Kovalev is not an ideal test at this point.

According to the Sportsbook Review, Kovalev is a slight betting favorite, but Yarde isn’t far behind. Yarde’s gaudy record and KO rating keep the odds close. He has exceptional knockout power, but his lack of experience is troubling.

At 36 years old, Kovalev’s chin is suspect. His knockout loss to Alvarez demonstrated a weakness in the durability of his chin. Alvarez isn’t a knockout puncher, but he flattened Kovalev in their first fight. The 28-year-old Yarde needs to land one punch to end Kovalev’s night, but that’s easier said than done.

Other than an edge in experience, Kovalev possesses a home-court advantage. The bout is taking place in his hometown of Chelyabinsk, Russia. The crowd will cheer with every slightly meaningful punch he throws, which could impact the judges’ scoring.

Something that could affect Kovalev’s performance is the status of his ongoing legal troubles. Kovalev was charged with felony assault in 2018. His case is still pending.

Recently, Kovalev was removed from an airline flight after he allegedly kissed a woman and threw money at her as first reported by The Athletic. His purported personal conduct as of late is troubling and could show a lack of focus on his part. If Kovalev’s head is not in this fight, then Yarde could take advantage of his frazzled state.

Kovalev’s preparedness and mental state are unknown, which means to predict a winner fact and video observation tells the story best. Kovalev boxed brilliantly against Alvarez in his last fight. He showcased his full range of boxing skills and proved he’s more than a power puncher. He’s not the same boxer he was three years ago, but he possesses an elite skill set.

Yarde is young and strong but hasn’t fully developed his abilities yet. Knockout power is essential, but there’s more needed to be a great fighter. He hasn’t proven that he’s a well-rounded boxer. Yarde is untested and hasn’t had the opportunity to improve against increasingly difficult opposition. He hasn’t had a chance to grow.

Yarde has good hand speed but has numerous holes in his defense. He carries his hands too low, fails to rotate his shoulders and chest when attacked, and moves straight back when pressed by opponents. Kovalev’s ring I.Q. will carry him to a unanimous decision victory.

Yarde has more than a puncher’s chance against Kovalev, which is why the odds are so close, but this fight likely goes the distance. That scenario favors Kovalev. He’s had four bouts go a full 12 rounds. Yarde has never been past round 7. He will flounder in the deep waters of championship rounds.

Since the bout is taking place in Russia, U.S. audiences can watch the action live on Saturday, Aug. 24 at 12:30 p.m. ET. on ESPN+. Kovalev vs. Yarde is an intriguing bout between talented boxers at different stages in their careers. We’ll see if the elder Kovalev can stave off the young challenger.