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MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Aug. 26 – Play Sonny Gray? I think I just May!

By Brian Tulloch

ST LOUIS, MO - AUGUST 21: Adam Wainwright #50 of the St. Louis Cardinals looks on after giving up a three run home run to Mike Moustakas #11 of the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning at Busch Stadium on August 21, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Jeff Curry/Getty Images)
ST LOUIS, MO - AUGUST 21: Adam Wainwright #50 of the St. Louis Cardinals looks on after giving up a three run home run to Mike Moustakas #11 of the Milwaukee Brewers during the first inning at Busch Stadium on August 21, 2019 in St Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Jeff Curry/Getty Images) /
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CINCINNATI, OHIO – AUGUST 20: Sonny Gray #54 of the Cincinnati Reds throws a pitch against the San Diego Padres at Great American Ball Park on August 20, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
CINCINNATI, OHIO – AUGUST 20: Sonny Gray #54 of the Cincinnati Reds throws a pitch against the San Diego Padres at Great American Ball Park on August 20, 2019 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) /

MLB DFS – Monday Pitching Breakdown:

We have a smaller seven game MLB DFS slate on this Monday with some potential rain chances, mostly in Kansas City that we will need to keep an eye on throughout the day. What you will likely notice upon diving into this slate is that the pitching is rather awful and there is one option that stands far and above the rest as a building block in Sonny Gray ($21.1K) on the road against the Marlins.

On a small slate like this, fading the chalk is always going to be a strategy that you need to consider and while Gray is the clear SP1 play, finding an argument outside of ownership or variance feels like reaching. The Reds right-hander has a 30% plus K rate over the last month which is a top ten mark in all of baseball and steps to the mound tonight fresh off double-digit strikeout games against the Cardinals and Padres where he put up 30+ fantasy points in each outing.

The Marlins projected line-up has a 25.3% K rate against RHP this season with a team ISO of .118. Add in the fact that Gray will be pitching in Miami and well, you start to wonder whether this $21.1K price tag is actually a bit too cheap.

The SP2 player pool has a few viable options and I think based off the bats you opt to prioritize will determine exactly what money you have leftover to land on your second starter. Dustin May ($16K) has the upside to pay off on the road against the Padres but with the Dodgers doing everything they can to limit his innings, there is a strong argument to fade him if he becomes the chalk SP2 considering he has not gone deeper than 5.2 innings yet at the Major League level.

Joe Musgrove ($12.1K) is the cheapest starting arm on the slate and one who has demonstrated upside, going for 28+ fantasy points in three starts since the beginning of June. One of those games just so happened to be against the very same Phillies team he faces here tonight, where he went 6 innings of shutout ball with 8 K’s and 30.5 fantasy points.

The one thing that could end up making Musgrove a must-play is the status of Bryce Harper who was placed on the paternity leave list over the weekend. It sounds like Harper is expected back tonight but if he misses, that makes this Philly line-up far less dangerous and considering the lack of value tonight, makes Musgrove a top point per dollar option.