Fantasy Football Debate: Draft Keenan Allen or T.Y. Hilton?

Fantasy Football Debate: Draft Keenan Allen or T.Y. Hilton?

Keenan Allen or T.Y. Hilton? That is the question. Today we are going to compare two wide receivers going roughly around the same time in numerous fantasy football drafts this year. Both guys are number one wide receivers on their respective teams, but today’s focus is to determine which receiver you are better off selecting.

First, let’s examine where both Allen and Hilton are currently being drafted in 2019. They are both being picked somewhere towards the beginning of the third round with Allen (30th overall) having the slight edge over Hilton (33rd overall). Allen and Hilton have a lot of question marks surrounding them heading into the 2019 season, but they also have a great deal of upside as well.

The Case for Keenan

Since entering the league in 2013, Allen has struggled with some injuries preventing him from seeing the field as often as he’d like. During his first six seasons in the NFL, Allen has missed 26 games. Some of the more notable injuries that have occurred to him throughout his career are when he suffered a lacerated kidney in 2015, and a torn ACL in 2016.

The good news is, Allen has managed to play through two fully healthy seasons in 2017 and 2018, but concerns have risen again as he went down with an ankle injury during training camp a couple of weeks ago.

Furthermore, Allen will now have to compete with a budding star in Mike Williams who started eating into his target-shares as the 2018 season progressed. During the final five weeks of 2018, Allen’s target-share percentage stayed pretty stagnant as it was somewhere around 20%. On the other hand, Williams’ target-share percentage increased from just under 10% in Week 13, all the way up to around 25% by season’s end.

Did you know that during his two fully healthy seasons that he played in, Allen managed to finish as WR3 and WR12, and in the seasons where he missed time he ended up outside the top-20?

I find that hard to be a fluke. Philip Rivers is a solid quarterback and when Allen is healthy he will get some opportunities. 2017 was the year where I feel Allen was finally able to showcase what he is truly made of.

Also, interestingly enough from Week 9 on, Allen led all wide receivers in total fantasy PPR points (183.4). He had an incredible second-half to that season and he displayed how he can be just as good as some of the other elite receivers in the NFL.

Allen’s unique ability to improvise and get open when the initial coverage does not seem at all promising is also what makes him special. That’s the sign of a good receiver when they can to make something out of nothing. Guys like DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown have done it, and Allen has the knack for it as well.

The case for Hilton

While being the top receiver on the Colts, Hilton has two major problems working against him. The first is the consistency to produce from a fantasy standpoint. There are some games where he will be a point monster and others where he will just plainly disappear.

If we are to examine Hilton’s fantasy point production from 2018 on a week to week basis, you’ll see the inconsistencies. For example, in Week 7 against Buffalo, Hilton produced 18.5 fantasy points in full PPR formats as he caught four passes for 25 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Then in the next two games he played in, Hilton only scored 15 total fantasy points for a combined four receptions, 111 yards, and no scores. He then came back the following week with 36.5 points as he snagged nine passes for 155 yards and two touchdowns.

The second issue affecting Hilton’s fantasy value this year is the fact that his Pro-Bowl quarterback Andrew Luck has decided to step away from the game of football. News of this most recent development came out this past weekend as no one was expecting Luck to announce his retirement from the NFL this year. With Luck gone, Hilton will definitely be affected to some degree heading into the 2019 regular season.

Jacoby Brissett will be the starting quarterback for the Colts now. In 2017, Brissett played in 15 games for Indianapolis and Hilton’s game did see a little bit of a dropoff. During that season, Hilton only managed 966 yards and four touchdowns on 57 receptions.

That was only the second time in his career where Hilton had under 1,000 receiving yards (the first being during his rookie season when he had 861), and the lowest touchdown total he’s had in a single season since entering the league in 2012. As a result, Hilton was only able to finish the 2017 campaign as WR-26.

Hilton definitely has the ability to be a top WR for fantasy, but it’s the inconsistent scoring and quarterback quality that hurts his value heading into the 2019 season.

Okay, that’s enough negative talk about T.Y. Hilton. Now let’s examine what makes him great.

A lot can be said that he’s not very dependable in fantasy because he can have a monster-game one week and then disappear the very next week. Last season, Hilton finished 2018 as WR14 with 76 receptions for 1,270 yards and six touchdowns. Furthermore, Hilton has been able to finish within the top-20 on three other separate occasions throughout his career in full PPR fantasy.

Furthermore, in 2018, Hilton had the seventh-most yards per target (10.6) and the 12th-most yards per reception (16.7) making him a good deep-threat weapon in the passing game. Finally, Hilton was involved in just over 40% of the Colts’ passing plays in 2018, which was the fourth-highest among any wide receivers in the NFL.

Hilton too has proven at times that he can produce like a number one receiver in fantasy. His speed and ability to make something happen beyond a catch is something very unique.

So how do we take?

To sum things up, Allen and Hilton are potential WR1 candidates for this upcoming season but do carry some flaws with them as well.

While Keenan Allen may have to compete with injuries and the quickly improving Mike Williams in 2019, I would have to give him the upper-hand over T.Y. Hilton due to the quarterback situation.

Jacoby Brissett isn’t a terrible quarterback, but when you suddenly have to make him your starter because your Pro-Bowl quarterback decides to retire, it is a bit worrisome. Brissett is definitely a downgrade in quarterback quality and it was proven in 2017 when Hilton had his second-lowest receiving production that year with him at the helm.

So when entering the third round of your fantasy drafts, keep these names in mind when making your selection. They both have the potential to give your team a legitimate boost in the receiving department of your team.

Remember it’s not necessarily who you take but where you take them that’s really important when drafting your fantasy team. Both of these guys are reasonably safe third-round picks regardless of their setbacks. Don’t hesitate on either one, but now you have a better idea on who to draft if they both are available when it’s your turn. Best of luck!

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