Which ranked teams will survive Week 1? We explore the CFB Winning Edge win probabilities for the opening week of the 2019 college football season.
The 2019 college football season officially kicked off last Saturday with two exciting (ugly) Week 0 matchups. But as we turn our attention to a full weekend of games in Week 1, it’s also time to introduce a new weekly feature: Win probabilities for every Top 25 team.
CFB Winning Edge is a college football analytics outlet that uses a player-based model to project Team Strength power ratings for all 130 FBS teams, and subsequent point spreads for every FBS vs. FBS game. By converting those projected point spreads into win probabilities, we can take a closer look at which highly ranked teams should be on upset alert. Using the preseason AP Top 25 as our guide, we offer a snapshot of 18 Week 1 games, including a few potential surprises.
Thursday, Aug. 29
Georgia Tech at No. 1 Clemson
The defending national champion Clemson Tigers host the lowest-rated team in the ACC in the CFB Winning Edge Team Strength power ratings. Clemson is absolutely loaded, especially on offense with Heisman Trophy candidates Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne leading the way. The defense lost a ton of talent but should reload in time to compete for another title. New Georgia Tech coach Geoff Collins pulled a tough draw for his first game as the head man for the Yellow Jackets.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Clemson, 98 percent
Texas State at No. 12 Texas A&M
New Texas State head coach Jake Spavital inherited an experienced defense, and offensive coordinator Bob Stitt should have the Bobcats lighting up scoreboards in the Sun Belt in short order, but Texas A&M is a heavy favorite in Week 1. And like Clemson, the Aggies should coast to an easy victory ahead of the mega-matchup in Death Valley in Week 2.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Texas A&M, 96 percent
No. 14 Utah at BYU
After being overlooked for years, Utah became a trendy pick to win the Pac-12 over the summer. The conference media even crowned the Utes the favorite at Pac-12 Media Day. Utah has a talent and experience advantage, but the Holy War is always competitive. The Utes were fortunate to escape with a 35-27 victory at home last season after falling behind early.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Utah, 71 percent
Friday, Aug. 30
Tulsa at No. 18 Michigan State
Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio shuffled his offensive coaching staff, and there’s hope quarterback Brian Lewerke is healthy enough to regain his form from 2017. If he does, the Spartans should be dangerous in the Big Ten East. An easy win over Tulsa should build confidence, though it’s important to note Michigan State hasn’t covered the spread in a season opener since 2014.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Michigan State, 88 percent
No. 19 Wisconsin at USF
CFB Winning Edge is higher on USF, and lower on Wisconsin, than most college football analytics outlets. Therefore, readers might be surprised to see we project this game as a virtual coin-flip. The Bulls have the home-field advantage, and heat, humidity and potential thunderstorms could be a factor in Tampa. USF also has a new offensive play-caller in Division II national championship head coach Kerwin Bell. Of course, the Badgers still have Jonathan Taylor.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Wisconsin 51 percent
Saturday, Aug. 31
Duke at No. 2 Alabama
It’s been a rough week for Alabama, which reportedly suspended four key players for the first half of Saturday’s game against Duke. The Crimson Tide then lost preseason All-American linebacker Dylan Moses to a torn ACL, which means head coach Nick Saban is likely to pencil in three true freshmen into the starting lineup on defense. Despite those concerns, the Tide is a heavy favorite. Especially because Duke must replace first-round quarterback Daniel Jones and has dealt with a pair of significant injuries to defensive starters as well.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Alabama 86 percent
No. 3 Georgia at Vanderbilt
Georgia might have a few question marks (receiver and linebacker are two highly inexperienced positions), but the Bulldogs are a legitimate threat to win the SEC and earn a second CFP bid in three seasons. Quarterback Jake Fromm and running back D’Andre Swift both entered 2019 in the Heisman conversation, and the dynamic duo will operate behind arguably the best offensive line in the SEC. Vanderbilt also has weapons on offense, but the Commodores have more questions than answers at quarterback and on defense.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Georgia, 78 percent
FAU at No. 5 Ohio State
The Ryan Day era officially kicks off at Ohio State Saturday, though the new head coach led the Buckeyes in last season’s opener as well. Justin Fields wasn’t in Columbus in 2018, however, and he’ll take over for Heisman finalist and first round pick Dwayne Haskins at quarterback. Ohio State is loaded as always, especially on the defensive line. Chase Young is an early candidate to go No. 1 overall in the 2020 NFL Draft. FAU has… Lane Kiffin.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Ohio State, 93 percent
Georgia Southern at No. 6 LSU
Several big names on the LSU depth chart have been banged up during fall camp, including All-World safety (and the best player in college football as far as we’re concerned) Grant Delpit. Georgia Southern suffered hiccups of its own this summer, including the suspension of a projected starter on the defensive line. The Eagles have two of the best cornerbacks in the Sun Belt, which should test LSU quarterback Joe Burrow in the warm-up for next week’s clash against Texas.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: LSU, 87 percent
Middle Tennessee at No. 7 Michigan
All eyes will be on new Michigan offensive coordinator Josh Gattis. The former Alabama and Penn State assistant has reportedly been given the go-ahead to open up the Wolverines offense, which is music to the ears of the Michigan fanbase, as well as quarterback Shea Patterson and a talented crop of receivers. Middle Tennessee, the runner-up in Conference USA, will start a new quarterback following the departure of four-year starter Brent Stockstill.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Michigan, 89 percent
Louisiana Tech at No. 10 Texas
Week 1 has been disastrous for Texas in recent years, and the Longhorns must be careful not to overlook C-USA contender Louisiana Tech in anticipation of a Week 2 visit from LSU. Quarterback Sam Ehlinger has what it takes to make a Heisman push, but he’ll need to stay healthy to do it. Ehlinger nursed a shoulder injury much of last season, which is worrisome because of the lack of depth in the Texas backfield. With only two scholarship running backs available for the season opener, head coach Tom Herman will be tempted to rely on Ehlinger’s legs as well as his arm.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Texas, 81 percent
No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 16 Auburn, in Arlington, TX
There’s only one Week 1 matchup featuring two ranked teams: the neutral site clash between Auburn and Oregon in Arlington. The Tigers will start true freshman Bo Nix at quarterback, while the Ducks are set to lean on Justin Herbert, who will make his 29th career start. However, the matchup to watch is the Oregon offensive line versus the Auburn front four – both of which might be the best in the country. The oddsmakers have the Tigers favored, but CFB Winning Edge disagrees.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Oregon, 53 percent
Miami (OH) at No. 20 Iowa
It’s hard to believe Iowa could improve offensively after losing multiple first round draft picks, but junior offensive linemen Alaric Jackson and Tristan Wirfs could turn the trick again next year, and defensive end A.J. Epenesa would likely join them. If senior quarterback Nate Stanley takes the next step, the Hawkeyes could be the team to beat in the Big Ten West, and in fact, CFB Winning Edge projects Iowa to hold off up-and-coming Nebraska for a spot in the conference title game.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Iowa, 87 percent
No. 22 Syracuse at Liberty
New Liberty head coach Hugh Freeze survived a health scare in fall camp, and hopefully, he’ll be on hand to guide the Flames in the season opener against ACC dark horse Syracuse. The Orange, who like Liberty are capable of putting up huge yardage totals and points, might actually lean on their defense in 2019. Alton Robinson and Kendall Coleman might be the best defensive end duo in the nation, and safety Andre Cisco has All-American potential.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Syracuse, 80 percent
New Mexico State at No. 23 Washington State
We expected Gage Gubrud, a graduate transfer from Eastern Washington, to step into the shoes left by surprise Heisman candidate Gardner Minshew. However, Mike Leach tabbed fifth-year senior Anthony Gordon to make his first career start instead. Gordon has a bevy of talented playmakers at his disposal, including running back Max Borghi and receivers Tay Marton, Easop Winston and Dezmon Patton. Given his knowledge of Leach’s system, it shouldn’t shock anyone if Gordon leads the Cougs back into contention in the Pac-12 North.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Washington State, 90 percent
South Alabama at No. 24 Nebraska
Despite a 4-8 record in 2018, optimism is off the charts for Scott Frost’s second season as Nebraska head football coach. A big reason is sophomore quarterback Adrian Martinez, who flashed huge potential while making 11 starts a year ago. Frost has added some important pieces around Martinez as well, including freshman receiver Wandale Robinson, who could be the next superstar for the Cornhuskers.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Nebraska, 87 percent
Northwestern at No. 25 Stanford
CFB Winning Edge is higher on Stanford than pretty much everybody. We project the Cardinal to be favorites in 11 regular season games, including all nine Pac-12 Conference games. We’re also pretty low on Northwestern, having placed the Wildcats No. 40 overall and No. 9 in the Big Ten in our most recent Team Strength power ratings. Of course, Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald believes stats are for losers, so what do we know?
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Stanford, 74 percent
Sunday, Sept. 1
Houston at No. 4 Oklahoma
If you love high-flying offenses, and dynamic, playmaking quarterbacks, you won’t want to miss Houston quarterback D’Eriq King, who is a 100-rated player in the CFB Winning Edge VGR+ individual player rating formula. King played in only 11 games in 2018 but still accounted for 50 touchdowns. Of course, Oklahoma – led by its own 100-rated QB, Jalen Hurts – is a heavy favorite. If the Sooners improve defensively (and they’ll have a tough early test), OU could be a legitimate threat to win it all.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Oklahoma, 87 percent
Monday, Sept. 2
No. 9 Notre Dame at Louisville
Louisville hit rock bottom last season, and former Appalachian State head coach Scott Satterfield has been tasked with rebuilding the Cardinals. Meanwhile, Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly is tasked with keeping the Fighting Irish in the playoff hunt for the second straight season. With Ian Book now entrenched as the starting quarterback for the Irish, and a talented crop of skill position players surrounding him, Notre Dame should open the season with a nice victory on the road.
CFB Winning Edge Win Probability: Notre Dame, 69 percent