MLB DFS: Bulletproof Bashers- Sat. Aug. 31 evening slates
Welcome to the latest edition of Bulletproof Bashers, where I’ll strive to identify at least one hitter at each position for that day’s slate that has both: a) a favorable pitch-split scenario against the starting pitcher; and b) is also facing a team with a tired and/or generally poor bullpen, thus giving him an excellent all-around matchup on paper.
The fact the hitter is in a potentially advantageous position regardless of who’s on the hill that day is the reason behind the term “bulletproof basher”. Naturally, that’s NOT intended to imply that there’s no way the player can fail you in your DFS lineup; rather, it simply conveys that multiple metrics do point to him having a higher-than-average likelihood of success.
What exactly are pitch-split matchups, and why are they relevant in helping identify potential breakout hitters in a given game? Pitch-split data enumerates how well or poorly a pitcher does when throwing a certain type of pitch, as well as how often they utilize that pitch against hitters of either handedness.
Metrics that we’ll often look at in this column under the pitch-split data set include the wOBA and CXwOBA the pitcher allows when throwing a certain pitch, as well as the hard-contact percentage hitters manage against it and the average distance a ball travels when hitters make contact against that offering.
I’ll naturally also examine things from the hitter’s perspective, in order to identify who’s best equipped to exploit the opposing pitcher’s weaknesses when throwing certain pitches. I’ll examine the same metrics we do with pitchers — wOBA, CXwOBA, HC rate, etc. — in order to find situations where the puzzle pieces match up close to perfectly.
Finally, since starting pitchers eventually give way to relievers, my goal in recommending hitters here will be to go beyond just hitters who have favorable pitch-split matchups against the starter; rather, I’ll be looking to also identify those whose matchup against the opposing bullpen is essentially just as appealing.
With the stage set as to the premise of this article, let’s dive into what bashers may be ready to thrive on Saturday night’s evening slates!