NFL season predictions: Picking every division winner in 2019

The NFC East and AFC West will once again be among the most hotly-contested NFL divisions this season, but will any surprise teams emerge to steal the crown from their biggest rivals?

For four straight seasons, the Chicago Bears were dead last in the NFC North. From 2014 to 2017, the Bears never won more than six games and hadn’t won the division – or even made the postseason – since 2018.

That all changed in Matt Nagy’s first season at the helm, as he led the Bears to a 12-4 record with real Super Bowl aspirations.

Who will be the 2019 season’s Bears? And on the opposite end, who will be this season’s Green Bay Packers? The upcoming NFL season is shaping up to be as dramatic as ever with the likes of the Cleveland Browns rising and the Houston Texans in potential disarray.

It’s time to take a look at which teams will win each of the eight divisions.

AFC East

Since 2003, the New England Patriots have failed to win the AFC East just once. And, yes, that was the season Tom Brady tore his ACL.

As exciting as it would be to predict the New York Jets or Buffalo Bills will their young quarterbacks and upgraded offenses, it would be an exercise in foolish optimism to tab anyone other than the Patriots to win this division.

It just seems like the Patriots get stronger every year. No Rob Gronkowski? Enter N’Keal Harry, Demaryius Thomas, and the possibility of 16 games with an ultra-efficient Josh Gordon.

What makes the Patriots so scary, however, is their defense’s ability to turn up the heat in the postseason. The Patriots never show off their best blitz packages or most sinister coverages until the games actually matter, and it’s telling that they bamboozled both veteran Philip Rivers and coaching prodigy Sean McVay with their defensive looks.

Prediction: New England Patriots

AFC South

This division seems absolutely up for grabs this year, thanks to Andrew Luck’s retirement and a bizarre string of decisions in Houston. The Texans are most likely going to find a much-needed blindside upgrade for Deshaun Watson, but at the cost of one of their best defensive players in Jadeveon Clowney. Bill O’Brien’s head-scratching offseason decisions, reliance on running on first downs, and predictable game-calling could doom a team with its best quarterback in franchise history.

But the Texans do have Watson. And Watt. And a variety of game-changing players like DeAndre Hopkins and Justin Reid at critical positions.

The Colts, meanwhile, are better-coached and have a more balanced roster. Their lone issue is finding out whether or not Jacoby Brissett is “preseason good” or “regular season good”.

So that makes the Jacksonville Jaguars the X-Factors here. Their defense is still just as elite as the defense that helped the team reach the AFC Championship Game two seasons ago, and they have a Super Bowl-winning quarterback who isn’t half as frustrating – or prone to ghastly interceptions – as Blake Bortles. If a motivated Leonard Fournette bounces back, the Jaguars could reclaim this division.

Prediction: Jacksonville Jaguars

AFC North

The hype surrounding the Cleveland Browns is real, but the headlines shouldn’t be going to Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. Yes, the Browns talent on offense is stunning, but what will ultimately put this team over Mike Tomlin’s underrated Pittsburgh Steelers is their defense.

Cleveland’s defensive line is unfair. Myles Garrett is a legitimate Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Olivier Vernon is about to remind the NFL just how good he is. And how about those defensive tackles?

A major key for the Browns, though, will be Denzel Ward’s health. Not even a pass rush as multi-dimensional as Cleveland’s can make up for a downtrodden secondary, and while the Browns have a few intriguing pieces like Terrance Mitchell and rookie Greedy Williams, nobody stands out as a game-changer like Ward. He might be their most important player after Mayfield.

Prediction: Cleveland Browns

AFC West

Seeing Antonio Brown help guide Derek Carr and the Oakland Raiders to an unlikely playoff appearance would be quite the sight, but, unfortunately for the NFL’s pocketbooks, Hard Knocks can’t script their regular seasons.

Instead, it’s probably going to come down to the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers, and a betting man would take the Chiefs in any situation. Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the NFL by some distance, having somehow made fans rethink what is possible at the quarterback position. Honestly, only a coin toss could thwart Mahomes from going to the Super Bowl in his MVP-winning first year.

That said, even Mahomes can only take the Chiefs so far, as evidenced by their woeful defense last season. New defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is hardly a genius, but he’ll surely be better at creating a gameplan than Bob Sutton. Moreover, this defense looks markedly better on paper. Justin Houston and Dee Ford were big names, but Juan Thornhill and Tyrann Mathieu look like the difference-makers this team needed at safety.

Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs

NFC East

As good as the Dallas Cowboys defense looks and as motivated as their offensive triplet will be to have monster 2019 campaigns, it’s impossible to overlook what Howie Roseman has done with this Philadelphia Eagles team.

Last season, the Eagles were short on playmakers at running back and wide receiver, en route to barely stumbling into the postseason after more heroics  from Nick Foles. So what did Roseman do? He traded essentially nothing for a proven workhorse in Jordan Howard, stole new starter Miles Sanders on draft day, orchestrated a reunion with DeSean Jackson, and snagged the draft’s most underrated wide receiver prospect in the fearsomely intelligent JJ Arcega-Whiteside.

The result is an Eagles offense that is by far the deepest and most athletic version in Doug Pederson’s tenure, and it’s one that no other team in the NFC East will be able to contend with. Plenty of questions will be asked about Carson Wentz’s health, but not even the most insidious of Eagles beat writers could question the quarterback’s play on the field.

Prediction: Philadelphia Eagles

NFC South

There won’t be a more exciting division in football than the NFC South, which will feature four of the league’s most explosive offenses. It would not be a shock if the 2015 NFC Champs (the Panthers) or the 2016 NFC Champs (the Falcons) won this division, but it seems presumptuous to pick anyone other than the Saints.

They would have been the 2018 NFC Champs if it weren’t for an egregious pass interference non-call. Drew Brees’s supporting cast looks even better than last year, when he relied almost entirely on elite weapons Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Now, he has one of the best tight ends from the 2018 season in Jared Cook, as well as a matured Tre’Quan Smith.

That said, what truly separates the Saints from the rest of the pack is the defense. They were stingy against the run last year, bolstered by a stout defensive line and an active linebacker corps. The Saints do have some questions in the defensive backfield, but they have both depth at corner and a bona fide shutdown corner in Marshon Lattimore. This is still Sean Payton’s division, until proven otherwise.

Prediction: New Orleans Saints

NFC North

An active offseason and a new head coach will make the Green Bay Packers as dangerous as ever, and Mike Zimmer’s Minnesota Vikings will be out to prove that the 2018 season was a fluke performance from them. Surely, the only person with a bigger chip on their shoulder than Zimmer will be Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has the best wide receiver duo in the league by his side.

Yet at the end of the day, the Chicago Bears will claim the NFC North crown again. Now that more quarterbacks than ever are shattering the 100.0 QB Rating benchmark, great defense has become that much more important. And while the Bears lost Bryce Callahan and current Packer Adrian Amos in free agency, their pass defense remains strong.

There isn’t a defense in the NFC North with more layering than the Bears, as they have sufficient depth both up front and in the secondary. It would be foolish to gloss over the Packers young secondary and improved pass rush, or the blue-chip talents scattered across the Vikings depth chart. But the Bears discipline, edge, and knack for forcing turnovers wins out.

Plus, it doesn’t hurt that they have one of the league’s most dominant difference-makers in edge defender Khalil Mack.

Prediction: Chicago Bears

NFC West

At first glance, it seems like the Los Angeles Rams should run away with the NFC West again, but there are cracks in the foundation. The Rams offense looked vulnerable in the Super Bowl and no longer carries the same mystique, even with a healthy Cooper Kupp.

Since the Arizona Cardinals are only beginning their optimistic rebuild and the San Francisco 49ers probably need one more offseason to assemble all the pieces they need, the Seattle Seahawks continue to stand as the Rams biggest threat in the NFC West.

And despite Pete Carroll’s increasingly erratic decision-making and Brian Schottenheimer’s bumbling offensive philosophy, the Seahawks are a potent threat. Potent enough to win the NFC West after being a dangerous Wild Card team.

It all comes down to Russell Wilson, who has a serious case for being the second-best quarterback in the NFL right now. Wilson will miss Doug Baldwin, but it’s not like he was the best receiver on the team last year due to injuries. Seattle has the running game and defense, now that they’ve acquired Clowney, to support Wilson.

Picking against the reigning NFC Champions is risky, but it feels like Wilson is on the cusp of producing an individually brilliant season of the highest magnitude. The Seahawks just have to trust both him and Tyler Lockett in order to unleash that bottled greatness.

Prediction: Seattle Seahawks