Is Leonard Fournette a reliable fantasy RB in 2019?

Is Leonard Fournette a Reliable Fantasy RB in 2019?

After coming off an incredibly disappointing 2018 campaign, Leonard Fournette is hoping to prove the doubters wrong that he is not a bust. 2018 left a lot of people wondering what went wrong and is whether or not he still a reliable RB1 candidate heading into this season. Before we can release a verdict on this topic, let’s give a little back-story to how we got here.

In 2017, Leonard Fournette was selected fourth overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the team’s bell cow back. The Jaguars hadn’t had a talent this special in their backfield since the days of Maurice Jones-Drew, so everyone in Jacksonville was rightfully excited.

During his days in LSU, Fournette played three seasons there where he totaled 616 carries with an average of 6.2 yards/carry and 40 touchdowns on the ground. He even showed his skills through the air as he averages just over 12.0 yards per catch with the Tigers.

Heading into his rookie season with the Jaguars, many expected Fournette to be one of the elite runners of the game right from the start. Fournette didn’t disappoint in his rookie campaign as he rushed for over 1,000 yards and scored nine touchdowns.

By the end of the 2017 regular season, Fournette finished as RB9 while averaging 17.7 fantasy points per game in PPR formats.

Things looked great for Fournette from a fantasy standpoint. The Jaguars ranked first in the number of run plays (526) and he had the eighth-best opportunity shares (66.7%) among any running back in the NFL that year.

The area of concern that some had was his health and durability. Fournette had missed three games in 2017 which involved ankle and quadricep sprains.

When taking a running back to be your starter in fantasy, the last thing you want to have is a player that will constantly struggle with injuries throughout the season. We saw glimpses of that in 2017, but weren’t all too worried since his production outweighed the negatives.

Many fantasy managers were taking their chances on Fournette with the hopes that minor injuries would not be a recurring theme for the 2018 season. Boy were they wrong! Right off the bat, Fournette got injured with a hamstring injury in the middle of the first game of the regular season against the Giants.

Fournette’s season never really took off after that. As we all know, hamstring injuries can be quite a nuisance and linger for a really long time. Fournette wound up missing Week’s 2 and 3 before returning to the gridiron in Week 4 against the Jets. Unfortunately, he would re-aggravate the injury once again, causing him to be out until Week 10.

When he returned for Week 10, we saw a fleeting glimpse of the production he is capable of. Between Week’s 10-12, he was RB5 averaging just over 25 fantasy points per game in PPR formats. There was hope that Fournette could finish this season on a positive note after all!

Sadly it wasn’t meant to be. Towards the end of Week 12’s match-up against Buffalo, Fournette got into an altercation with some of the Bills players. He eventually was given a one-game suspension for his actions and wasn’t the same after that.

His fantasy value plummeted as he averaged just under 3.0 yards per carry and only scored one touchdown from that point on.

To sum up his 2018 season in a nutshell, it was just plain abysmal. He only rushed for 439 yards and four touchdowns in 2018, causing him to finish the year off as RB40 with an average of 15.1 fantasy points per game.

His on-field antics and injuries cost him his sophomore season in 2018. Granted, Fournette didn’t have a very good supportive group of players surrounding him either last year. This factor most likely had an effect on Fournette’s performance last season as well.

The good news is he took some serious time to refocus all of his energy into getting back to top form once again. Fournette claims to be in a much better place now both mentally and physically which is a great sign. He’s been working out and cut down on his weight as well to be in better shape for the 2019 season.

This sounds all well and good, but it needs to translate on the field come game time. If Fournette bounces back in a significant way this year, he’s definitely a candidate to be an RB1 with great upside.

Conversely, if things do not go well for Fournette, we could be looking at a potential player to just plain avoid for fantasy drafts in the future years to come.

Personally, I wish nothing but the best for Fournette and hope he comes back stronger and better than ever this year. But hoping and making a prediction are two completely different things.

For the time being, Fournette is being drafted as RB12 roughly around the end of the second, to the beginning of the third round in most fantasy drafts this year.

In my eyes, Fournette is just too risky of a player to take your chances on at that stage of your draft. Backs like Damien Williams, Kerryon Johnson, and Aaron Jones are going just after Fournette who have less risk than him.

Yes, it’s hard to ignore drafting a running back with the possibility he can be a strong RB1, but there’s too much risk involved based on the evidence in the past.

No one can deny Fournette’s talent on the field when fully healthy, but is his questionable durability really worth the gamble? In the end you have the ultimate power to choose if Leonard Fournette is a dependable running back for your fantasy team, but it’s probably best to heed these words and avoid him in 2019 until he proves otherwise.

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