DraftKings MLB picks September 4: All that glitters is Goldschmidt

DraftKings MLB pitcher plays:

Top Tier:

Zac Gallen ($9,600): Gallen had his worst start of the season against the Dodgers and he still only gave up three runs in five innings. Gallen hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any start. He wont against San Diego either. Gallen has good strikeout upside and he just doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. I view him as the most reliable expensive pitcher if you want to pay up.

Jose Berrios ($8,800): Berrios had a miserable August, not allowing less than three runs in any start the entire month. Berrios held Boston to one run in eight innings earlier this year. Much has also been made about the road struggles of Berrios. Guess what? His home ERA is now a touch worse. The really intriguing thing about this is that Berrios struck out ten in that first game against Boston. The Red Sox are also hitting just .236 against him in 89 career at bats with 25 strikeouts. It’s hard to trust Berrios right now, but he looks as strong as anyone tonight.

Tanner Roark ($8,500): Roark picked up 18.4 DraftKings points against the Angels as a member of the Reds earlier this year. Overall, the Angels are only hitting .196 with six homers and nine runs in 92 at bats against Roark with 24 strikeouts. Roark doesn’t have near the upside of Berrios or Gallen, but he may be safer than both of them.

Middle Tier:

Chris Paddack ($8,300): Paddack got back on track after being blasted by Boston. Tonight’s start in Phoenix could be tougher, but Paddack has handled the Snakes both times he has faced them, racking up 43.6 DraftKings points in those two games. Paddack’s upside is limited since the Padres are only letting him throw around 90 pitches, but more often than not, he gets a lot out of those 90 pitches.

Jake Junis ($7,500): Junis has averaged 19.4 DraftKings points per game in three starts against Detroit this year. That’s a great return for the price. The current Tigers are hitting just .204 against Junis with two homers and four runs in 93 at bats with 18 strikeouts. That’s plenty good enough to rely on tonight whether you consider the price or not.

Robert Dugger ($7,100): Dugger is an interesting pick here after shutting down the Reds his last time out. The Mets pounded him in his debut, but that encouraging outing, I’m willing to chase him in Pittsburgh. This is a pitcher’s park, and the Pirates offense is all or nothing. If Dugger can limit the walks, he could have a really good outing here.

Trevor Williams ($6,600): It’s hard to use Williams considering his 6.21 home ERA, but the Marlins are one of the worst road teams in the majors. Williams has back to back 20+ DraftKings point games. One was at home against the Reds. The other was in Coors. If we are ever going to trust him again, this is probably the time to do so.

Bargain Pitchers:

Michael Wacha ($5,900): Wacha has a 3.05 since rejoining the rotation. The only issue here is that Wacha pitched over the weekend, so he may not get a full workload here. This is a great matchup against the Giants if you are willing to take the risk. Wacha’s 15.5 DraftKings points per game average since rejoining the rotation shows the kind of return he can offer.

Ivan Nova ($5,100): David Byrne had it right. “As we get older, we stop making sense.” In this case, Ivan Nova has allowed just five earned runs in 21 innings against Cleveland this year. He has allowed 76 in 141 innings against everyone else. The kicker? Most of this was done before Nova’s post All-Star break hot streak. Nova’s hard to trust here, but the numbers support it.

Antonio Senzatela ($4,000): Senzatela has been awful most of the year, but not against the Dodgers. He has only allowed four earned runs in two starts to the Dodgers. In L.A., he picked up 18.7 DraftKings points. Keep in mind that this was only a month ago. It’s not like it was in early April. Senzatela is worth a dart throw.

My picks: Junis, Dugger; Paddack, Nova; Gallen, Junis; Berrios, Wacha; Gallen, Senzatela